Eurasia Press & News
Israel is seeking to test a plan that includes a new engineering of society in the Gaza Strip, by creating “humanitarian bubbles” and contracting private security companies to manage them, in a way that threatens to cause structural changes in the geography and demographics of the Strip.
The northernmost areas of the Gaza Strip (Jabalia, Beit Hanoun and Beit Lahia) have been witnessing a military escalation and a new and ongoing humanitarian crisis since the Israeli army announced on October 6, 2024, a military operation, the third in Jabalia since the outbreak of the war, which includes the heavy use of fire, aerial and artillery bombardment, in addition to other methods of intimidation that include a tight siege, evacuation orders, encirclement and the destruction of the remaining infrastructure. While Israel set the objectives of the operation as pursuing armed elements affiliated with Palestinian factions, regional and international concerns escalated due to the unclear Israeli objectives of the operation, and in light of the vagueness of the Israeli vision for the day after the war, and the plans of extremists in the government to occupy the far north of the Strip, and perhaps rebuild settlements there, especially in light of the many documents supporting the control of Israeli security and operational forces in the Strip, such as the “Document of Principles” and what is known as the “Generals’ Plan”, which are the perceptions that this paper seeks to compare with the Israeli field procedures in the northern regions, and their political, geographical and demographic repercussions on the Gaza Strip.
The third military operation in Jabalia
The city of Jabalia in the northern Gaza Strip is witnessing the third military operation since the outbreak of the war on October 7, 2023. It was among the first areas that the Israeli army entered in the first months of the war, and re-invaded its camp in early May 2024, in a military operation that lasted for about 20 days. Each time, the Israeli army faces challenges in imposing its operational control over the town and its camp, as a result of the noticeable activity of militants from the Palestinian factions compared to other areas of the Strip that have become quieter, as it is one of the main strongholds of the Hamas movement in the northern Gaza Strip.
However, the northern Gaza Strip is facing an unprecedented humanitarian crisis since the outbreak of the war, due to Israeli obstacles to humanitarian aid reaching it and as a result of its geographical separation from the south, with the displaced people in the south prevented from returning to their homes and areas even following the humanitarian truce that took effect in November 20223. These circumstances have prompted a number of countries to adopt alternative methods of humanitarian response, including airdropping aid, especially to the northern Gaza Strip, particularly from Jordan, and then the United States’ attempt to bring it in by establishing a temporary sea pier in the Gaza Strip in March 2024, before the Pentagon announced its removal later in May 2024. Meanwhile, international and UN organizations , including the United Nations and others , continued to warn of the risks of food insecurity in the Strip, especially its north.
The ongoing military operation comes amid the ongoing humanitarian crisis and the high risks associated with it as winter approaches, especially in light of Israeli measures and tactics, and military pressures that exacerbate this scene, especially since residential areas, the vicinity of hospitals and shelters are within the scope of the Israeli army’s theater of operations, in addition to the bombing of residential blocks. On October 12, Israeli forces blew up a residential block using a booby-trapped “robot”, all amid a complete siege that has been ongoing since late September 2024, according to UN data, as no food or medicine trucks have entered the north, which was recently acknowledged by US Vice President and presidential candidate Kamala Harris, which places about 400,000 Palestinian citizens under siege according to the Secretary-General of UNRWA. Moreover, the process of distributing and receiving aid is surrounded by serious risks, as Israeli artillery shelling targeted the food distribution center in Jabalia camp, “the camp’s supply center” affiliated with UNRWA, killing and wounding dozens of displaced Palestinians on October 14.
Timing of the operation in terms of connotations and contexts
Regardless of the military operation in the northern Gaza Strip being linked to the increasing talk about the generals’ plan, and the lack of official and clear Israeli adoption of it, concerns remain about its implicit implementation, as it has become a subject of discussion between the United States and Israel. During US Secretary of State Anthony Blinken’s visit to Israel on October 22, 2024, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and Israeli officials demanded assurances that the military operation was not a practical implementation of that plan. According to reports, Netanyahu denied this, but that did not prevent US officials from expressing their concerns about isolating the northern Gaza Strip, as Washington sees the Israeli measures as a threat to the residents of the north that they will become targets, according to the Washington Post.
However, the operation is accompanied by a series of measures, steps and statements issued by Israeli officials, indicating that its timing and context take seriously concerns about changing the geographical and demographic reality in the north, in a manner that differs from previous operations that mostly focused on the declared Israeli goals of the war. Especially since it coincides with the intensification of talk about settlements. On October 16, former Chief of Staff and former member of the War Council Gadi Eisenkot stated that he was informed of the Israeli government’s intention to build a settlement in the Gaza Strip. On October 21, a group of extremists held a conference called by the ruling Likud party entitled “Preparing to Resettle Gaza,” in which government ministers participated, including Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich, Housing Minister Yitzhak Goldknopf, and National Security Minister Itamar Ben-Gvir. The Wall Street Journal revealed, quoting the Nahala and Nashala settlement movements, that 700 families have registered to live in 6 potential settlements in the Gaza Strip.
In fact, it appears that there are persistent attempts and pressures on the Israeli government by the ministers of the extremist movements in it to establish a foothold for themselves in the Gaza Strip, under the pretext that this is a major part of the attempts to achieve security for the Gaza envelope areas. On October 22, Israeli Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich revealed this relationship by saying that “there will be no security without settlement.”
The military operation and the next day’s milestones
The operation comes amidst the ambiguity surrounding the Israeli and American vision for the post-war Gaza Strip, and in light of the absence of an agreement on the horizon to stop the war and exchange prisoners and detainees, which according to President Biden’s vision, which he presented on May 31, 2024, was supposed to be achieved in three stages until the Gaza Strip was able to recover and rebuild. Accordingly, the Israeli and American plans and proposals on the table have increased, most of which are consistent with the ongoing Israeli military measures in the far north of the Strip, especially among them:
First: The Document of Principles for the Day After Hamas, which was proposed by Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and approved by the Security Cabinet on February 22, 2024, which emphasizes the objectives of the war to eliminate the military capabilities of Hamas and Islamic Jihad, and addresses the security and civilian areas in the Gaza Strip, in terms of Israel maintaining security control over all of the Gaza Strip’s borders with Israel and Egypt, and handing over responsibility for administration in the Strip to local elements, while replacing the United Nations Relief and Works Agency for Palestine Refugees (UNRWA) with other agencies or bodies.
Second: The Generals’ Plan; which was presented by the former head of the Israeli National Security Council, Giora Eiland, in September 2024, to both Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and the Ministry of Defense, with the aim of pressuring the Palestinian factions and militants in the northern Gaza Strip, whose number Israel estimates at about 5,000 fighters, and attempting to impose a new administration in those areas. According to the Associated Press, which obtained a copy of it, the solution in northern Gaza is limited to two options; either pushing the militants to surrender or die, through two stages: The first; begins with evacuating the northern Gaza Strip of civilians by calling on them to move towards the southern Gaza Valley (evacuating the northern Netzarim Corridor). The second ; declaring the north a closed military zone, managed according to military regulations, with the aim of imposing a siege on the arrival of basic resources to the area and isolating it from the rest of the Gaza Strip, and considering anyone who chooses to remain a fighter who can be targeted.
Third: The “ Humanitarian Bubbles ” Plan: The military operation in Jabalia and the surrounding areas is consistent with the closed communities or “humanitarian bubbles” plan, which is based on creating protected areas for delivering aid. On October 22, the Israeli government discussed this proposal submitted by the Global Delivery Company (GDC), whose staff includes former Israeli military officers and agents from the American military and intelligence community. The company revealed in a statement on October 21 that it “held extensive discussions with the Israeli government, including the Ministry of Defense, the IDF, and the Prime Minister’s Office, regarding the means available to implement the plan,” while Moti Kahana, the company’s chairman, stated that Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu had submitted a recommendation to the Ministry of Defense to begin implementing it.
According to the plan, after the Israeli army announces the end of armed manifestations and the absence of fighters or anything associated with armed factions from the northern areas, the GDC company will begin establishing protected and closed communities, surrounded by a separation wall, and will be off-limits to residents living outside them. The identity of those present in them will be determined via biometric fingerprints. The company claims that this method is the most appropriate for delivering aid safely, away from theft, or exploitation by militants.
Conclusions
In view of these plans, principles and divisions, the ongoing military operation is considered part of imposing the Israeli vision on the ground, as a matter of fact, and thus it reveals Israel’s vision for the next day of war, especially in terms of:
First: Geographical division of the sector
The Israeli actions on the battlefield are consistent with the geographical changes that have affected the Strip, by dividing it into three regions (the north of the Strip, its center, and its south). The geographical engineering work of the Strip has created this in reality, as the Netzarim axis separates the north of the Strip from the Gaza Valley, which is about 6.5 kilometers wide, and includes three main paths: “a path for heavy tanks and armored vehicles, another for light vehicles, and a third for rapid movement,” in addition to imposing operational control in the contact areas such as the Philadelphi axis in the south, and along the northeastern border of the Strip with the Gaza envelope, which is about 60 kilometers long.
Second: Social engineering
Since the outbreak of the war, Israel has moved the humanitarian mass in the Gaza Strip several times, in a way that led to the population density being transferred to the Mawasi area, where about 1.4 million displaced people from the Strip live, which led to a reduction in the population density in the northern and central areas. It is clear that Israel wanted to do this in order to control the reverse movement of the displaced people, on their way back to their areas after the end of the war or during it, to facilitate control over the northern communities and choose who has the right to return or not. This idea is considered the basis on which the “humanitarian bubbles” that Israel intends to create in cooperation with private security companies are based.
Third: Security companies as an alternative to law enforcement forces
There is increasing talk about the future role of private security companies, in order to manage key facilities in the Gaza Strip, maintain security, or distribute aid. This idea began in May 2024, when the Israeli government engaged in talks with American security companies to manage the Rafah crossing. The idea was reinforced with the Israeli government’s discussions to grant the GDC the task of maintaining security in the northern Gaza Strip after the end of combat operations. This comes as an alternative to the Arab countries’ refusal to send police forces to restore security in the Strip, and as a result of the Israeli army’s inability to perform this role, given its inability to manage society using non-combat methods. However, the roles of private American companies are linked to multilateral arrangements, including the need to obtain the approval of the US Congress to serve in the Gaza Strip, in addition to the complications that may arise when implementing them given the possibility of considering them part of the occupation, which requires the use of force against them. The company itself faced attacks from the Taliban movement in Afghanistan, in addition to Blackwater being exposed to attacks in Iraq since 2003, especially in light of the doubts surrounding the company’s neutrality given its administrative structure, which is occupied by former Israeli and American leaders, including Stuart Seldowitz, a former adviser in the Barack Obama administration who was arrested in November 2022 on charges of a “hate crime,” before the charges were dropped from him in June 2024. The Gotham Government Relations Company had severed its relations with Seldowitz as a result of that charge.
Fourth: Israel’s insistence on remaining in the Gaza Strip
All the plans, procedures, and geographic and social engineering work indicate that Israel is committed to occupying the Gaza Strip and remaining there indefinitely, and controlling its security and administrative affairs. It is likely that all of these plans are a means of providing legal cover for that presence under the pretext of distributing aid.
Finally , whether these plans are applicable or not, they fall within the framework of managing the conflict, not resolving it, which means that they will not put an end to the threats to the Israeli army inside the Strip or even to the Gaza envelope areas, or to the companies that may be involved in managing the security operation in Gaza, especially since the foundations of their sustainability are questionable, and they remain partial and temporary solutions that do not rise to the level of being considered strategic steps.
