Eurasia Press & News
Analysis: Turkey could emerge as one of the biggest regional winners following the ouster of the Assad regime.
Scenes of jubilation erupted on Sunday outside Istanbul’s Fatih Mosque, in the neighbourhood that shares its name, after Syria’s Bashar Al-Assad was ousted from power following a quarter-century of authoritarian rule.
Syria’s civil war, sparked by peaceful protests calling for regime change in 2011, has dragged on for nearly fourteen years.
But Sunday was a hopeful moment for Syrian refugees living in neighbouring Turkey and elsewhere, many of whom did not think they would live to see the fall of the dictator who had quashed the uprising and unleashed a civil war that would see hundreds of thousands killed and millions flee their homes.
Around three million Syrians are currently officially registered in Turkey.
Known as “little Syria”, Fatih has long been one of the neighbourhoods the city’s 500,000-strong community has called home. Opposition flags filled the square outside the mosque, as people voiced renewed hope that they might one day return to their homeland.
The lightning advance of opposition forces led by former Al-Qaeda affiliate Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) and Turkey-backed militias from the Syrian National Army (SNA), which had been in control of much of northern Syria, surprised observers.
In a matter of days since 27 November, they were able to seize large swathes of territory from government forces, capturing major cities such as Aleppo, Hama, and Homs, before entering the capital, Damascus, early on Sunday.
In the south and east, provinces like Daraa – known as the cradle of the 2011 uprising – also fell into rebel hands as local armed groups took control and government forces withdrew.
The developments have huge implications for the balance of power in the Middle East with ripple effects beyond the region, weakening the influence of Assad’s backers Russia and Iran.
“Turkey was likely aware that something was cooking but was taken by surprise by the speed of the rebel advances,” Berkay Mandiraci, a senior Turkey analyst at the International Crisis Group (ICG), tells The New Arab.
Turkey initially adopted an open-door policy towards Syrian refugees, hosting the largest Syrian diaspora of any country. However, this began to backfire as Turkey’s grinding economic crisis intensified, with refugees increasingly scapegoated.
The opposition capitalised on this sentiment, playing the “refugee card” to garner support from a frustrated electorate, particularly in the lead-up to the 2023 general elections.
On the foreign policy front, the Syrian war strained Turkey’s relations with the United States, which backed the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF). The SDF is led by the Syrian Kurdish People’s Protection Units (YPG), a group Turkey designates as a terrorist organisation due to its links to the outlawed Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK), which has waged a decades-long insurgency against the Turkish state.
Since 2016, Turkey has launched several military operations in northern Syria, primarily targeting Kurdish groups.
Turkey effectively controls parts of northern Syria through its allied militias in the Syrian National Army (SNA) and direct military presence.
“Ankara’s approach to the Syria theatre has long been centred on two key priorities: preventing a new northward flow of refugees and curbing the presence and control of the PKK-linked YPG,” Mandiraci says.
Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan has sought talks with Assad since at least late 2022, but the former Syrian president insisted that any meeting would be contingent on the withdrawal of Turkish forces from territory in northwest Syria.
“Especially in recent months, the rejection by the Syrian regime of the initiative launched by our President … led to developments that proved us right,” Turkey’s foreign minister Hakan Fidan wrote in a post on X after Assad’s departure, adding that “Turkey is ready to undertake whatever responsibility is necessary to heal Syria’s wounds and ensure its unity, integrity and security”.
Turkey, Iran, and Russia have been partners in the so-called Astana process, aimed at ending Syria’s war, since 2017. A 2020 ceasefire brokered by Russia and Turkey was marred by repeated violations. But the foreign ministers of the three countries held talks in Doha on Saturday – overshadowed by the rapid turn of events on the ground a day later.
According to Mohammed A. Salih, a non-resident Senior Fellow at the US-based Foreign Policy Research Institute and an expert on Kurdish and regional affairs, at least for the time being Turkey’s position in the region will be strengthened.
“Of the two main opposition groups, the SNA, works at Turkey’s behest. Ankara also has considerable influence over HTS. So the fall of Damascus is certainly an important gain for Turkey, and an unexpected one at that,” Salih tells The New Arab.
“It will lead to a friendly client government in Damascus coming to power. A government that will continue to rely on Turkey for much, including trade relations for basic materials, reconstruction and diplomatic support regionally and internationally,” he adds.
But this, both analysts agree, would only apply if stability in the region is ensured. “The loyalties of the new groups in charge could at least shift partially, and the threat of some sort of internal armed strife in Syria cannot be ruled out, particularly with a resurgent ISIS waiting in the wings,” Salih says.
As opposition groups entered Damascus on Sunday, the Turkey-backed SNA continued its advance in SDF-held territories in northern Syria, a separate operation dubbed Dawn of Freedom. By Monday morning, the SNA had reportedly taken control of the city of Manbij, west of the Euphrates River.
Should the military campaign against the SDF continue, with new fronts opening in the north and closer to the Iraqi border, it will “certainly lead to a humanitarian disaster,” says Salih.
“And quite likely a security one as it will create chaos which could very well be exploited,” he adds.
