Eurasia Press & News
“You gotta be more thankful,” Donald Trump told Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky during a heated exchange in the Oval Office last Friday. What was meant to be a signing ceremony for a minerals agreement quickly devolved as Trump and Vice President J.D. Vance berated Zelensky for supposedly “gambling with World War III” and accused him of being “disrespectful” — all while talking over him when he tried to respond. Just hours later, U.S. media reported that Trump was considering cutting off all military aid to Ukraine. After a White House meeting on Monday, Trump followed through, ordering a pause on all military aid to Ukraine. As Kyiv braces for the loss of a critical source of its military support, the independent outlet iStories examined just how long Ukraine can hold out without American weapons. Meduza shares an English-language version of their findings.
In terms of financial support, the United States has been one of Kyiv’s leading allies since Russia’s February 2022 invasion of Ukraine. According to calculations by the Kiel Institute for the World Economy, total U.S. assistance has reached 114 billion euros (about $119 billion), while European countries have collectively provided 132 billion euros (about $138 billion).
Military aid follows a different breakdown. A Western official told The Wall Street Journal that Ukraine now produces or purchases 55 percent of its weaponry, with the U.S. supplying about 20 percent and Europe around 25 percent. The Kiel Institute reports that since the full-scale war began, the U.S. has provided 64 billion euros (about $66.9 billion) in military aid, while European contributions total 62 billion euros (about $64.8 billion). The Pentagon’s own estimate is similar, putting U.S. military support at $65.9 billion.
Financially, Europe could step in to fill the gap if U.S. aid were to stop — provided there is the political will to do so, says François Heisbourg from the International Institute for Strategic Studies. But funding is only part of the equation.
Some of the U.S.-supplied weapons systems are critical for Ukraine’s Armed Forces, and replacing them would be difficult, if not impossible, experts warn. These systems are either produced in limited quantities in Europe or not manufactured there at all.
What Ukraine stands to lose
Air defense missiles
Ukraine’s military would be unable to replenish its stock of interceptor missiles for Patriot air defense systems, which can shoot down Russian ballistic missiles and Kinzhal air-launched ballistic missiles. These munitions are produced exclusively in the United States. As The Wall Street Journal notes, a shortage would quickly force Ukraine to make difficult choices about which sites to defend and which to leave exposed to Russian strikes.
Rockets and missiles for MLRS
Ukraine would also lose access to guided rockets and missiles for its multiple launch rocket systems (MLRS) — both tracked MLRS and wheeled HIMARS units. The U.S. supplies the Ukrainian military with two types of these munitions: GMLRS, which has a range of up to 90 kilometers (about 55 miles), and ATACMS, which can reach 300 kilometers (more than180 miles). While Europe has provided SCALP and Storm Shadow cruise missiles, which are launched from aircraft, their numbers are not enough to fully replace U.S.-supplied long-range rocket systems.
Without precision-guided, long-range artillery, Ukraine would lose the ability to strike Russian weapons depots, command centers, airfields, and training grounds. These strikes have been key to disrupting Russian logistics and supply chains — forcing Russian forces, for example, to relocate air bases farther from the front lines.
“The Europeans have other air defense and [multiple-launch rocket systems] capabilities, but ours are the best, are already fielded in large quantities, and just need the munitions resupply and maintenance,” a former U.S. government official told The Washington Post. “European industry can’t create new/more on a dime.”
Ukrainian forces have already learned to operate and maintain these systems without American assistance, military analyst Ian Matveev noted. The only challenge, he said, could be certain types of repairs.
Intelligence support
The U.S. government is also considering cutting off not just weapons deliveries but also intelligence-sharing with Ukraine’s armed forces, the New York Times reported. How Ukraine would compensate for this loss remains unclear. The United States far surpasses European countries in satellite surveillance and other intelligence-gathering capabilities, BBC reports.
What Ukraine can (probably) replace
Starlink
Along with intelligence support, the U.S. could also cut off Ukraine’s military from Elon Musk’s Starlink satellite communications system. But Defense Minister Rustem Umerov recently said that Ukrainians are working on an alternative and that “there’s already a solution.”
“From the very beginning, it was clear what an unstable partner we were dealing with. All the military understood that it was wrong to rely on military communications built on commercial infrastructure owned by another country, which is beyond our control,” said Ukrainian electronic warfare specialist Serhii Beskrestnov. According to him, the Ukrainian military has been working on alternative communications for some time, so while losing Starlink would be painful, it would not be catastrophic. Ukraine’s armed forces have already faced disruptions in access to Starlink — for example, during operations in Russia’s Kursk region.
According to Politico, the E.U. is also working on a potential solution involving Govsatcom, an E.U.-wide network of government satellite systems set to go fully operational by the end of this year.
Ammunition
A year ago, as Congress stalled on approving a $60-billion aid package for Ukraine, one of the biggest challenges on the front lines was a shortage of artillery shells. From the start of the full-scale war through September 2024, the U.S. supplied Ukraine with about three million shells. European stockpiles, however, were depleted within the war’s first few months, and ramping up production proved difficult.
That has begun to change. In 2024, European countries produced 1.4 million shells and plan to increase output to 2 million in 2025. Meanwhile, Ukraine itself manufactured 2.5 million artillery and mortar shells between January and November 2024, according to President Volodymyr Zelensky.
Tanks and Infantry Fighting Vehicles
Since the start of the war, the U.S. has delivered 21 Abrams tanks and more than 300 Bradley infantry fighting vehicles to Ukraine, according to a Pentagon report from late January. The Abrams could potentially be replaced with German-made Leopard 2 tanks. In 2023, Ukraine received around 70 Leopard 2s, and European armies collectively have about 2,000 of them.
Ukraine also continues to rely on Soviet-era tanks, both from its own reserves and those supplied by allies. As for infantry fighting vehicles, by December 2023, Ukraine had received at least 140 German Marder IFVs, with another 20 expected in the first half of 2025.
How long can Ukraine keep fighting?
Estimates vary, but assessments suggest that without U.S. military aid, Ukraine could hold its current frontline positions for six months to a year. However, former senior Pentagon official Celeste Wallander notes that the delivery of U.S. weapons already approved under President Joe Biden’s administration would be a key factor in this.
Weapons shipments from the United States to Ukraine follow three main channels:
Presidential drawdowns: The fastest option, where weapons are pulled directly from U.S. stockpiles and quickly sent to Ukraine. The Pentagon estimates that $3.85 billion worth of equipment can still be delivered through this process.
New Pentagon contracts: The slowest channel, in which weapons are ordered and manufactured specifically for Ukraine. Some of these deliveries are scheduled through 2026.
Direct Ukrainian purchases: Ukraine uses U.S. funding to buy American-made weapons. The last of these orders is expected to be fulfilled within six months.Meduza has condemned Russia’s invasion of Ukraine from the very start, and we are committed to reporting objectively on a war we firmly oppose. Join Meduza in its mission to challenge the Kremlin’s censorship with the truth. Donate today.
The challenge now is that President Trump could halt deliveries through any of these channels — even canceling Pentagon contracts or redirecting ships carrying weapons, a U.S. foreign policy expert told iStories on condition of anonymity. “The freeze on federal grants and international aid has shown that what was once considered borderline illegal is now entirely possible,” the expert said.
A Washington Post source confirmed that billions of dollars’ worth of weapons already prepared for shipment could be blocked from reaching Ukraine. Indeed, Trump is reportedly meeting with his advisors on March 3 to discuss canceling aid already approved and paid for under the Biden administration.
Update: On Monday, March 3, U.S. President Donald Trump ordered a pause on all military aid to Ukraine, reported Bloomberg, The Washington Post, and The New York Times, citing U.S. officials. The New York Times reported that Trump’s directive temporarily suspends all military aid to Ukraine effective immediately, affecting “hundreds of millions of dollars in arms and ammunition in the pipelines and on order.” According to The Times, the order also halts aid through the Ukraine Security Assistance Initiative, a dedicated fund that allows Kyiv to purchase new military equipment directly from U.S. companies.“Would the loss of U.S. aid make the situation more difficult for Ukrainian forces? Yes. Would it lead to total collapse in six months? No,” said a former Ukrainian military officer and open-source intelligence analyst who uses the pseudonym Tatarigami. “It would mean more Ukrainian soldiers and civilians killed, especially as air defense stocks deplete, but on the battlefield, there would be no sudden collapse.”
