Eurasia Press & News
In what some have described as a breakthrough deal, the Kurdish-led Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) agreed to merge with Syria’s new government on Monday.
Although the deal has generated immense media attention, questions remain over how the SDF’s integration will take shape and the sustainability of the agreement, as the Kurdish militia has fiercely guarded its autonomy, and tensions remain over its inclusion.
The agreement comes amidst violence in Syria’s coastal region between Syrian government security forces and gunmen loyal to the Assad regime, which has left around 1,300 people dead, including many civilians and religious minorities.
The deal also effectively transfers prisons and detainee camps filled with ISIS fighters and their families from SDF control into the hands of the new Syrian government, which already has been targeted by various ISIS propaganda campaigns.
Amidst violent unrest along Syria’s Mediterranean coast, the Kurdish-led Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) agreed to merge with the country’s new government earlier this week, in what has been hailed as a historic agreement. The deal was widely lauded as a breakthrough for the interim government, led by former Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) frontman Ahmed al-Sharaa, who has sought to unify Syrian rebel groups operating across the country since ousting former Syrian President Bashar al-Assad late last year. The agreement was announced by the Syrian president’s office and signed by both parties, stating that the SDF would integrate all civil and military institutions into the new Syrian state by the end of the year, including the oil and gas fields under SDF control. The United States reportedly played an important role in helping bring the agreement to the finish line. The deal will also recognize Syria’s Kurdish community, which was disenfranchised and suppressed under the Assad regime, granting citizenship to tens of thousands.
It remains unclear how such integration will take shape, especially given how fiercely protective the Kurds have been of their autonomy within Syria. The Kurdish militia has been among the most difficult groups to bring into the government’s fold, with tensions centering on demands that the SDF disarm and integrate into government forces in order to be included within the national dialogue on Syria’s political future. Another challenge will be how Türkiye deals with Syrian Kurds moving forward, given historic animosities, although Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan called the deal “a step in the right direction,” going on to say that if the deal was carried out fully, “the winner would be Syria.” The deal was certainly made easier after the recent announcement from the longtime leader of the Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK), Abdullah Ocalan, that the militant group was laying down its arms. Still, while the agreement itself is to be celebrated, and no doubt took a significant leap of faith on the part of SDF commander General Mazloum Abdi, the implementation of such an agreement will not be easy. Moreover, it may not do much to ease tensions, especially in the near-term, between the SDF and the Syrian National Army (SNA).
Some skeptics have described the deal as a public relations stunt, big on symbolism but short on substance. Others, meanwhile, are celebrating the agreement between the SDF and al-Sharaa’s government. But no matter which side is right, one thing is certain–there are numerous variables still at play that will continue to destabilize Syria. Israel continues to bomb parts of the country while also being accused of fomenting unrest among minority communities, including Druze, Alawite, and Kurdish. Iranian influence remains a concern. While some analysts see this as an attempt to keep al-Sharaa off-balance and ensure that Syria remains divided, the Israelis merely claim they are doing everything they can to ensure that threats do not metastasize inside of Syria.
The deal comes against the backdrop of violence in Syria’s coastal region between Syrian government security forces and gunmen loyal to the Assad regime. The clashes have resulted in around 1,300 people dead, including many civilians killed by government forces, according to the Syrian Observatory for Human Rights, a conflict monitoring group. The unrest was the deadliest outbreak of violence in the country since Assad’s ouster in December. High casualties have been reported among religious minorities, including Christians and Alawites, the sect to which Assad and his inner circle belonged. The violence has also resulted in the displacement of thousands throughout the region, as civilians have fled to nearby mountains for safety, as well as the Russian Hmeimim airbase near Latakia city, and across the border in Lebanon, according to Human Rights Watch.
Amidst growing concerns about Islamic State (ISIS) exploiting the transitionary period in Syria, the merging of the SDF into the transitionary government is a significant development. On Tuesday, the Syrian defense ministry announced that the SDF is also handing over the administration of the Al-Hol camp to the government. The SDF, with U.S. support, has overseen more than 9,000 ISIS prisoners and 40,000 women and children linked to ISIS in the Al Hol and Al Roj detainee camps in northeastern Syria, including many foreign fighters and their families. Syria, alongside the Democratic Republic of Congo, has remained the most affected country by ISIS activity in 2024, and operational tempo of the group has steadily picked up within Syria, even before the toppling of the Assad regime.
Online, in official ISIS propaganda materials, HTS and Ahmed al-Sharaa have been depicted as Turkish puppets and the recent killings of minorities in the coastal provinces have been used as further propaganda fodder. With the detainee camps and prisons soon being moved under the direct supervision of the government in Syria, these propaganda operations and incitements to attack will likely intensify. Additionally, this may further incentivize the Trump administration to expedite the exit of U.S. presence in northeastern Syria, which would have myriad cascading effects. The Administration has previously voiced its interest in withdrawing from the region, and this may serve as the opportunity to do so. Put simply, U.S. troop withdrawal would embolden ISIS, which has likely been planning an assault on prisons and detention centers in the northeastern part of Syria, similar to what occurred in Hasakah in January 2022, and directly in line with its longstanding ‘Breaking the Walls’ campaign.
