Eurasia Press & News
A few hours after US President Donald Trump announced a ceasefire deal with the Houthis in early May, Mohammed Abdulsalam, the chief Houthi negotiator, said that “the agreement doesn’t include Israel in any way, shape or form”.
The US deal, brokered by Oman, which is also mediating US-Iran nuclear talks, leaves Israel alone to respond to Houthi attacks, with the risk of pulling Tel Aviv into another asymmetrical conflict that could further stretch its resources.
Following Trump’s announcement, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu reportedly said that “Israel will defend itself by itself,” signalling that Washington had sidelined Israel from the US-Houthis agreement.
The Houthis, also known as Ansar Allah, began attacking ships connected with Israel on 19 October 2023 after the start of the Gaza war in solidarity with Palestinians. Israel’s military campaign has killed over 52,000 Palestinians and led to accusations of genocide.
The goal of the Houthis was to pressure the international community to stop Israel from bombing Gaza by disrupting global shipping passing through the Red Sea, which accounts for about 14% of global maritime trade.
Initially, they targeted Israel-affiliated commercial vessels, carrying out over 100 attacks on ships, but the Yemeni armed group then also targeted Israeli territory, prompting Israel to retaliate with strikes on Houthi-controlled areas.
In response to the Red Sea trade disruption, the US and its allies launched a military campaign targeting the Houthis under former US president Joe Biden, which was intensified under Trump. Since mid-March, the US has struck over 800 Houthi targets in Yemen under Operation Rough Rider, reportedly costing over $1 billion.
Nevertheless, Israel-Houthi confrontations have intensified. On 4 May, the Houthis launched a missile that pierced Israel’s air defences and landed near Ben Gurion Airport. The next day, Israel launched airstrikes on Yemen’s Hodeidah Port, and, on 6 May, it struck Yemen’s main airport in Sanaa, a few hours before the US announced a truce deal with the Houthis to halt its military campaign.
The Houthis, however, have kept their word and have continued to attack Israel despite the deal with the US. On Friday, 9 May, the Houthis fired a missile towards Israel, which was intercepted by defence systems.
On 16 May, Israel carried out strikes on the Yemeni ports of Hodeidah and as-Salif in response to missile attacks by the Houthis. Israel also threatened to target the Houthis’ leadership. In an overnight attack on 18 May, the Houthis claimed they targeted Ben Gurion Airport again, launching two ballistic missiles that were reportedly intercepted by the Israeli military.
These latest strikes followed just hours after Trump’s visit to Saudi Arabia, Qatar, and the UAE, where the US moved to strengthen alliances, secured over $2 trillion in Gulf investments, and announced the lifting of sanctions on Syria, all without stopping in Israel, unlike his first presidential trips.
Not stopping in Israel for a visit was widely seen as a reflection of growing tension between the two allies. This strain has become more visible as the US continues to sideline Israel in key regional diplomacy, including talks with Hamas over American hostages, negotiations on a nuclear deal with Iran, and now the ceasefire with the Houthis.
Andreas Krieg, a senior lecturer at the School of Security Studies at King’s College London and CEO of the consulting firm MENA Analytica, told The New Arab that the US-Houthi deal should be viewed through “the lens of the Make America Great Again (MAGA) agenda”.
He explained that the MAGA agenda pushes US restraint, which clashes with Netanyahu’s risky and costly approach, leading many in MAGA to oppose letting Israeli interests drive US policy.
“Netanyahu is seen by some of the MAGA crowd as a warmonger, someone who escalates, who only takes an iron fist or eye-for-an-eye approach, rather than looking for how deals can be struck,” Krieg said. “In a lot of ways, the Netanyahu strategy is incompatible with the MAGA agenda.”
The US stepping back from its military campaign against Houthi attacks in the Red Sea adds additional pressure on Israel while it launches a further major offensive in Gaza.
Eleonora Ardemagni, an expert on Yemen and senior associate research fellow at the Italian Institute for International Political Studies (ISPI), told TNA that the Houthis’ capabilities have increased, particularly in their ability to strike deep into Israel.
“Despite multiple interceptions by the US Navy and other anti-smuggling efforts, the Houthis have never stopped receiving weapons from Iran,” she said.
“Iranian arms, training, and expertise, along with the help from Lebanon’s Hezbollah, have boosted their local missile and drone production. Moreover, since 2023, they have expanded alliances, opened new smuggling routes beyond Iran, and deepened ties with Al-Shabaab, Al-Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula (AQAP), Russia, and other actors linked to organised crime networks.”
While Israel could bomb Yemen remotely, it may not destroy the Houthis’ deeply buried missile infrastructure without ground operations or intelligence work.
Meanwhile, the Houthis could absorb strikes and continue launching attacks. Therefore, as both sides can only degrade but not eliminate each other’s capabilities, this confrontation may lead to a prolonged standoff.
As Hezbollah, Hamas, and Syria’s Assad regime faced setbacks, the Houthis have gained visibility as the last line of escalation in the Iran-led “Axis of Resistance,” while remaining a peripheral, autonomous ally of Iran rather than a proxy.
“While the Iran-Houthi alliance has strengthened since 7 October, it remains a relationship between distinct actors, with the Houthis maintaining independence and strong leadership in Yemen,” Ardemagni said.
The attacks on Israel also serve an ideological purpose for the Houthis, fueling their propaganda, strengthening their image, and boosting recruitment, according to Ibrahim Jalal, a Middle East expert at Horizon Insights, Research and Advisory.
However, he explained that there is no real military strategy against Israel, as the Houthis lack the necessary military, logistical, and financial resources.
“A limited Houthi attack on Ben Gurion Airport causes minimal disruption in Israel but triggers Israeli retaliation that costs Yemen billions in damaged infrastructure,” he said. “No matter what the Houthis claim, the calculus is clear: attacks on Israel achieve little but provoke massive, costly responses.”
The damage from the Israeli strike on Sanaa Airport is estimated at $500 million, according to Yemeni aviation authorities.
Ardemagni explained that while Israel’s strikes on Sana’a airport were a symbolic, symmetric response, hitting Hodeidah port had a major financial and infrastructural impact, as the Houthis partly fund themselves through port taxes and use imported, including Iranian-smuggled, fuel to supply their territories and power their military systems.
“Since the Yemen truce began in 2022, the Hodeidah port has also become a hub for smuggled Iranian and other networks’ weapons, while before 2022, key arms routes included the Gulf of Aden, Mahra’s coast in Eastern Yemen, and Oman’s overland route via the Dhofar border,” she said.
While Israeli strikes on Houthi infrastructure have imposed economic costs, the Houthis’ prolonged military campaign in the Red Sea has also had economic effects.
In February 2024, the UN Trade and Development agency estimated that transits passing the Suez Canal decreased by 42% compared to their peak. By mid-December 2023, Israel’s only Red Sea port, Eilat, saw an 85% decline in activity.
Data and analytics company Russell Group estimated that $1 trillion in trade was disrupted from October 2023 to May 2024 due to Houthi attacks, affecting crude oil, plastics, phones, cars, and clothing.
Overall, except during periods of ceasefire agreements in Gaza, the Houthi campaign pushed international shipping away from the Red Sea toward the longer route around Africa’s Cape of Good Hope.
However, it is too early to assess whether the US-Houthi agreement will hold.
“This deal isn’t set in stone, and more negotiations will have to happen,” Krieg said. He further explained that the Houthis have a poor record of honouring agreements and use loose definitions for Israeli-linked ships, sometimes attacking vessels simply because a parent company has investments in Israel. While the US goal is full freedom of navigation, insurers and shippers remain wary.
Ardemagni believes that the Houthis will continue launching missiles and drones toward Israeli territory, aiming to penetrate its air defences.
“I expect the Houthis to continue attacking Israel, possibly including Israeli ships, since this is not covered by the US-Houthis ceasefire,” she said.
Jalal explained that Israel will maintain its focus on national security, even if the Houthis scale back their attacks. The Houthis have set conditions for Gaza, including humanitarian access, a ceasefire, and reconstruction. However, Israel’s involvement is directly tied to broader security goals in Gaza that extend beyond the Houthis.
“The Israelis have gone deep into their national security calculus, and they will continue to work on them covertly and overtly, even if the US does not want to,” he said.
The conflict between the Houthis and Israel may also have implications in the current nuclear talks between the US and Iran.
Krieg explained that while in Trump’s first term much of his Middle East strategy focused on isolating Iran and aligning the Gulf states with Israel, he now realises the Abraham Accords won’t expand further and may pivot toward engaging the Gulf with Iran, unintentionally isolating Israel.
In this context, keeping the Houthi negotiations, mediated by Oman, separate from Israel also creates space to potentially advance a larger nuclear framework with Iran.
“Israel seems to be the spoiler for most of the MAGA ambitions in the region. That’s why I think it’s quite smart for Trump to separate Israel out from an overall deal in the region, as Israel is not in a deal-making phase, and it’s more of a spoiler than a partner that can help the Americans secure deals anywhere in the region,” he said.
