Eurasia Press & News
Operation Gideon vehicles constitutes an unprecedented Israeli escalation in the Gaza Strip, with the aim of dismantling Hamas and redrawing the map of the Strip demographically and militarily, amid mounting international and regional pressure. Despite its ambition to end the war, Israel faces internal and external challenges that could turn the process into a crucial turning point: either a comprehensive resolution, a long depletion, or a political breakthrough that ends the ongoing conflict.
Israel began a large-scale military operation in the Gaza Strip on May 18, 2025, which it called Operation Gideon Vehicles, which was approved by the Cabinet on May 6. It aims to achieve all the objectives of the war, foremost of which is the dismantling and defeat of Hamas, military control of the Gaza Strip, and the release of Israeli detainees in the Gaza Strip. The operation came about two months after Israel resumed the war on March 17, 2025, and is the third operation launched by the Israeli army since the outbreak of the war in the Gaza Strip, after the 15-month “Iron Swords” operation, and the four-month operation “Pride and the Sword.” However, the “Gideon vehicles” operation comes amid very complex Israeli, regional and international circumstances and changes, and raises questions about its declared and undeclared goals, and about its possible scenarios that put an end to the war that has been going on for about 19 months, whether by faltering its objectives and results, or achieving it in part or its complete success.
“Gideon vehicles”: significance and goals
The name “Gideon vehicles” is linked to historical connotations and biblical narratives, and dates back to the story of the Jewish military commander “Gideon Ben Yoash”, mentioned in the Book of Judges, and its recent use for the second time, after the name “Gideon” was used in a military operation in the Bisan area, which in 1948 aimed at displacing the residents of the city. The process reflects the expansion of the Israeli target matrix, as the most noticeable indication of the transfer of the discourse of displacement to the level of implementation. It will result in one of the largest operations to move the population of about 2 million since the outbreak of the war, and the largest concentration of the population in a specific geographical enclave, with Israel’s plans to confine them to the area between the Philadelphia and Morage axes.
On the other hand, the operation is related to drawing the milestones of the day after the war in the Gaza Strip, as it assumes that the Israeli army, which began a large-scale ground operation on May 18, 2025, in conjunction with intensive air raids, will control and establish a permanent structure to occupy the areas from which its residents were evacuated, with the imposition of military rule on the Gaza Strip, and control the distribution of aid operations, and Israel has already begun to prepare practically to move the population towards the south, by preparing the area south of Rafah to receive the residents of the Gaza Strip, and following a new mechanism to distribute humanitarian aid, in addition to the extension of the Gaza Strip, which intends to push the northern Gaza Strip, in addition to the extension of the Gaza Strip
Although the “Operation Gideon” resonated widely, in fact it is not the first Israeli operation to prepare for the displacement of the population of the Gaza Strip, as this was preceded by the so-called “Generals Plan”, which coincided with the Israeli army’s military operation in the Far North of the Gaza Strip (Jabalia, Beit Hanoun and Beit Lahiya) on October 6, 2024. Except that the “Gideon vehicles” are wider and include the entire area of the Gaza Strip, and the new mechanism for the distribution of aid does not differ from an earlier plan announced by Israel, known as “humanitarian bubbles”, where it is assumed that the population according to the “Gideon vehicles” plan will establish a protected and closed society in a narrow geographical pocket, in preparation for their voluntary or forced displacement.
Israeli and international challenges to the objectives of the operation
The practical implementation of the Israeli plan poses a new reality in the Gaza Strip, whether in its demographic composition or field scene, and poses challenges to Hamas, which will lose its momentum in the areas of its authority and influence, and its control over the distribution of aid or ensuring its security, at a time when Israel is exerting pressure on its leaders and authority in the Gaza Strip, especially in intensifying its targeting of the ministerial headquarters of the movement and its political and administrative leaders since the resumption of the war, until its announcement of the targeting of Mohammed Sinwar on May 14, 2025, which is widely likely to be the successor of Yahya Sinwar in the leadership of the movement in the Gaza Strip. In doing so, it tightens pressure on the movement and gives it the opportunity to “get down from the tree” and accept the Israeli condition of a partial deal to launch a number of Israeli detainees, within the framework of the negotiations led by US President Steve Whitkov’s envoy, which began in Doha on May 14, 2025.
After 19 months of war, world public opinion has reached a high level of rejection, as reflected in the recent official positions of the leaders of the United States and Europe, including US President Donald Trump’s statements of his desire to end the war, and his approval of the unprecedented humanitarian situation and hunger that threatens the lives of thousands of Gazans. This was preceded by the United States going to independent negotiations with Hamas that resulted in the release of Israeli-American Idan Alexander on May 13, 2025, which Trump considered a “goodwill gesture” towards the United States. Thus, there are serious Israeli fears of international isolation, due to the damage to its relations with the US administration, or as a result of the positions of the most hardline European countries on the need to stop the war and the introduction of aid, the leaders of Britain, France and Canada have threatened to take “concrete measures” that may include the imposition of sanctions in the event of Israel’s refusal to enter humanitarian aid.
Moreover, Israel faces several internal obstacles, with economic, legal, social, political and military dimensions and repercussions, foremost of which is the lack of reserve forces and their continuous depletion of the war, in a manner that raises questions about the ability of the Israeli army to maintain a permanent presence of its forces in the Gaza Strip, and perhaps even confronting an insurgency that may be led by Hamas or other armed factions, by waging a guerrilla war that may increase the losses of the army. Its repercussions may affect Israel’s ability to achieve deterrence and superiority from their point of view in other areas of the region, especially in the face of Iran, in addition to Israel’s orientation towards the occupation of the Gaza Strip, comes at the expense of the Egyptian reconstruction plan, and closes the options of Arab contribution on the next day of the war, especially by sending security forces or training Palestinian forces for this purpose
Scenarios of the “Gideon vehicles” operation
On the one hand, its success means the end of the war according to Israeli objectives, but on the other hand, the continuation of the war for a long time to come, leads to the depletion of the Israeli army in a guerrilla war, which may lead to political and military transformations inside Israel, and in general, the stop of the “Gideon vehicles” seems to be at one of these scenarios:
First scenario: The process achieves its objectives
The achievement of the objectives of the declared and undeclared operation means the end of the war officially and completely, and this is the worst scenario for the Gaza Strip and its population and the unprecedented humanitarian situation in it, especially since the current field scene in the Gaza Strip is consistent with Israeli plans, in terms of the inability of many of its cities and neighborhoods to live, in addition to the clear intentions of the Israeli government to push the process towards achieving its goals, as the Israeli Broadcasting Corporation published on May 24, 2025 about the entry of the army of all infantry and armored brigades into the Gaza Strip, within a plan to introduce five military divisions.. However, Israel faces challenges in completing the process, given the limited time available to it, with increasing international and regional pressures, and the lack of countries supporting displacement plans or ready to receive the residents of the Gaza Strip. This means that the Israeli army will remain in long-term contact with the residents of the Gaza Strip, and what this means from the continuous depletion of its capabilities, Israel does not seem to have the ability to withstand it after 19 months of war..
Scenario two: the process is discontinued
The operation may stop after achieving part of its objectives, or focusing it mainly on the northernmost areas of the Gaza Strip, or as a result of not having enough time to fully implement it, the Israeli army has already tested the difficulty of working on the ground in the Gaza Strip, especially in the populated areas, as the “Jabalia camp” operation in October 2024 took more than a month, and the third operation focused in the Jabalia area since the outbreak of the war, which means that the application of the same model to the various areas of the Gaza Strip needs a period that may take years, which may enter into a state of strategic stalemate, if the war has not already entered, as the military force can no longer achieve. The results should be political. The process can be stopped due to a breakthrough in the ceasefire negotiations, which may begin temporarily according to the recent proposal of the US envoy, before expanding to broader negotiations for a full and comprehensive cessation of military operations, especially since the negotiations are no longer exclusive between the parties to the war, and the United States entered a major party in its talks with Hamas, and the results of these talks can constitute a unifying way out of the war.
The third scenario: the process faltered
This means that Israel is unable to achieve its goals, within a specified period of time, which turns it into a pattern of continuation of the war that began on October 7, 2023, and the continuation of the depletion of the two parties in a way that doubles the losses of Hamas and loses the ability to extend its authority in the Gaza Strip, and leads to the collapse of the ruling Israeli coalition, after the war reached a stage of “strategic stalemate”, and became an unsustainable burden for Israel, and the continuation of the process without the release of detainees threatens their lives, and warns Israeli authorities of those threats surrounding detainees, which may lead to a major and sharp change in the view of the Israeli street towards the government and its parties
