Eurasia Press & News
This update is the first of at least three CTP-ISW Iran Updates over the next 24 hours that will cover the Iran-Israel war. The recent Israeli strikes are a rapidly evolving situation, and no single individual or organization will have complete information at this time, including the states involved. Some of the information that is available in the open-source will be contradictory or inaccurate. CTP-ISW will continually refine our assessments over the coming days and weeks, as we work to understand the situation. CTP-ISW will issue corrections and clearly articulate when we refine an earlier understanding of events.
Many sources will misinterpret information in the coming hours. Social media users posted footage that showed dozens of bright streaks in the sky during the October 2024 Iranian ballistic missile attack on Israel and claimed that all of the streaks were ballistic missiles, for example. It later emerged that some of the streaks were ballistic missile interceptors, not missiles.
CTP-ISW will only publish high-confidence information. Our maps and the update below include information including “anti-aircraft fire,” reported and confirmed explosions, and reported and confirmed airstrikes. Some users online may misinterpret anti-aircraft fire as evidence of an airstrike. Some air defense systems have long ranges that make it difficult to assess if the air defense fire’s point of origin is the actual target or if the air defense systems are protecting a more distant site. Likewise, the sounds of explosions may not denote an airstrike because some sources may misinterpret the sounds of missile launches or other kinetic activity.
Key Takeaways:
Israel conducted the first strikes of its air campaign targeting the Iranian nuclear program and regime leadership on June 12.
These strikes killed a number of senior Iranian leaders.
Iran has not yet responded to Israel’s strikes despite claims on June 11 that it had finalized plans for an “immediate counterstrike” against Israel. It is unclear at this time why Iran has yet to respond.
Iran may opt for “strategic patience” in the aftermath of a strike on its nuclear facilities or other key assets.
It is also possible that Israel somehow disrupted Iran’s response by targeting Iran’s ballistic missile launch sites and stockpiles.Israel conducted the first strikes of its air campaign targeting the Iranian nuclear program and regime leadership on June 12. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu announced on June 12 that Israel has launched a military operation against Iran that will continue “for as many days as it takes to remove the [Iranian] threat.”[1] He stated that Israel has targeted Iran’s nuclear enrichment, nuclear weaponization, and ballistic missile programs as well as Iranian nuclear scientists.
Israeli airstrikes were reported at the following locations:
Natanz Enrichment Complex in Esfahan Province.[2] Netanyahu confirmed that Israel hit Natanz.[3]
Nobonyad Street in Tehran Province.[4]
Lavizan district in Tehran Province.[5]
Jahan Koudak Tower in Tehran Province.[6]
Farahzad neighborhood in Tehran Province.[7]
Amir Abad neighborhood in Tehran Province.[8]
Andarzgou neighborhood in Tehran Province.[9]
Langari Street in Tehran Province.[10]
Patrice Lumumba Street in Tehran Province.[11]
Asatid-e Sarv Complex in Tehran Province.[12] [13]
Israel also targeted Iran’s leadership and nuclear scientists. Iranian media has confirmed that Israeli airstrikes killed Iranian Armed Forces General Staff Chief Major General Mohammad Bagheri, Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps Commander Major General Hossein Salami, Khatam ol Anbia Central Headquarters Commander Gholam Ali Rasid, Iranian nuclear scientist and former head of the Atomic Energy Organization of Iran Fereydoon Abbasi, and Iranian physicist and President of the Islamic Azad University Mohammad Mehdi Tehranchi.[14] Unverified images circulating on social media show specific buildings impacted by the airstrikes, suggesting that Israel conducted targeted killings in Tehran.[15] Israeli Army Radio also reported that Israel targeted Ali Shamkhani, a top adviser to the supreme leader.[16] Iranian media reported that Shamkhani is in critical condition.[17]
Unverified reports also indicate that explosions were heard in the following provinces: Qom, Markazi, Kermanshah, and Hamadan.[18] The maps below include key Iranian sites in these provinces. Please note that we are not confirming at this time that any, some, or all of these facilities have been targeted.
Iran has not yet responded to Israel’s strikes despite claims on June 11 that it had finalized plans for an “immediate counterstrike” against Israel.[19] It is unclear at this time why Iran has yet to respond. Iran may opt for “strategic patience” in the aftermath of a strike on its nuclear facilities or other key assets. Iran responded four days after the US airstrike that killed Qassem Soleimani on January 3, 2020. Iran similarly waited two weeks to respond to the Israeli airstrike that killed senior IRGC officer Mohammad Reza Zahedi. Iran could choose to delay a counterattack to better assess the damage that Israel inflicted and then calculate a suitable response to the initial attack or campaign. CTP-ISW will continue to monitor Iran’s response whenever it comes.
It is also possible that Israel somehow disrupted Iran’s response by targeting Iran’s ballistic missile launch sites and stockpiles. Netanyahu said that the strike simultaneously targeted the nuclear program and the missile program, but CTP-ISW has not yet observed reports of Israeli strikes against multiple missile sites.[20]CTP-ISW will not be covering the new Israeli operation in the Gaza Strip. We have reprioritized our Middle East coverage to focus on Iran’s nuclear program, Iranian domestic security, and Iranian efforts to rebuild its networks into the Levant, including the Palestinian Territories. Given that Israel and its partners have destroyed Hamas’ military organization and severed the group’s ability to resupply itself, we are now focused on how Iran seeks to rebuild its lines of communication with Hezbollah and Hamas through Syria.
The Iran Update provides insights into Iranian and Iranian-sponsored activities abroad that undermine regional stability and threaten US forces and interests. It also covers events and trends that affect the stability and decision-making of the Iranian regime. The Critical Threats Project (CTP) at the American Enterprise Institute and the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) provides these updates regularly based on regional events.
CTP-ISW defines the “Axis of Resistance” as the unconventional alliance that Iran has cultivated in the Middle East since the Islamic Republic came to power in 1979. This transnational coalition is comprised of state, semi-state, and non-state actors that cooperate to secure their collective interests. Tehran considers itself to be both part of the alliance and its leader. Iran furnishes these groups with varying levels of financial, military, and political support in exchange for some degree of influence or control over their actions. Some are traditional proxies that are highly responsive to Iranian direction, while others are partners over which Iran exerts more limited influence. Members of the Axis of Resistance are united by their grand strategic objectives, which include eroding and eventually expelling American influence from the Middle East, destroying the Israeli state, or both. Pursuing these objectives and supporting the Axis of Resistance to those ends have become cornerstones of Iranian regional strategy.
We do not report in detail on war crimes because these activities are well-covered in Western media and do not directly affect the military operations we are assessing and forecasting. We utterly condemn violations of the laws of armed conflict and the Geneva Conventions and crimes against humanity even though we do not describe them in these reports.
