Israel increasingly appears eager to oust the clerical leadership that has ruled Iran since the 1979 Islamic revolution but is taking a gamble given the Iranian opposition is divided and there is no guarantee new rulers would be any less hardline, analysts say. By striking targets other than nuclear or …
Read More »Yearly Archives: 2025
The Israel-Iran War Exposes Beijing’s Limited Strategic Flexibility
The outbreak of war between Israel and Iran presents a profound geopolitical test for the People’s Republic of China (PRC), exposing the structural limits of Beijing’s ambitions in the Middle East and its global strategy. Given its interests, many expected China to assume a more forceful political stance in defense …
Read More »Israel Considering Regime Change in Iran as U.S. Weighs Its Options
The situation between Israel and Iran has developed into a rapidly escalating conflict, with both sides aggressively attacking the other and each side sustaining civilian casualties. The scope of Israeli strikes — and their precision — indicates that the situation is no longer solely about dealing with deterrence over nuclear …
Read More »Iran Update Special Report, June 20, 2025, Evening Edition
Information Cutoff: 5:00 PM ET The Critical Threats Project (CTP) at the American Enterprise Institute and the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) are publishing multiple updates daily to provide analysis on the war with Iran. The morning update will focus on the exchange of fire between Iran and …
Read More »Spotlight on Iran and the Shiite Axis
On June 13, 2025, Israel launched a preemptive attack in Iran, which includes attacks againstdozens of military and security targets, government targets, and nuclear facilities. SeniorIranian regime officials accuse Israel of committing “crimes” and continue to threaten thatIsrael will continue to pay a “heavy price” for its ongoing attacks. Before …
Read More »‘We really are in a perfect storm’
At an event on the sidelines of the St. Petersburg International Economic Forum, Russian Finance Minister Anton Siluanov made a telling remark. In his words, the country’s federal budget, which has posted a deficit in the first part of the year, is weathering “serious turbulence.” The comment came in response …
Read More »An economic reality check
The St. Petersburg International Economic Forum is known for the noise it generates in the news media, but SPIEF also hosts some substantive discussions. This year, one of the forum’s most consequential exchanges was between high-ranking officials and state bankers about Russia’s risk of recession. The first to raise the …
Read More »As Israel and Iran trade blows, Hezbollah stays on the sidelines
Hezbollah’s strategic restraint amid escalating Iran-Israel hostilities marks a significant shift in the region’s balance of deterrence. Once seen as Tehran’s most loyal and responsive proxy, its decision to hold back, even after the assassination of its leader and heavy blows to its infrastructure over the past 18 months, signals …
Read More »How will Yemen’s Houthis respond to Israel’s war against Iran?
On 15 June, Houthi spokesperson Yahya Saree claimed that the Yemeni group had struck Israel with “hypersonic ballistic missiles” in coordination with the Iranian military. Saree boasted that the Houthi operations against “sensitive Israeli targets” in Jaffa had “successfully achieved their objectives”. While Saree’s bombastic claims about the efficacy of …
Read More »Here’s what could happen next in the Iran-Israel war
On 12 June, Israel launched ‘Operation Rising Lion’, attacking Iran’s main enrichment facility in Natanz and parts of the Iranian ballistic missile program, and killing several Iranian nuclear scientists. In the aftermath of the attack, which killed over 200 Iranian civilians, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu issued an English-language address …
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