Eurasia Press & News
From Ukraine and Taiwan to Venezuela and Iran, shifting alliances, trade wars and power rivalries are redrawing global battle lines – revealing how close the world may be to a wider conflict.
The world is not at war – but it’s no longer at peace either. In fact, if we look at it closely, it’s more fragmented now than ever. With Donald Trump at the helm of affairs in the world’s most powerful country – the United States – the geopolitical developments are far more rapid and ever-changing. From the trenches of eastern Ukraine to the waters of the Taiwan Strait, from street protests in Tehran to oil politics in Caracas, today’s global order is being tested simultaneously on multiple fronts. At present, it seems like Trump’s America is calling the shots, but for how long? Russia’s Vladimir Putin or China’s Xi Jinping – they will all eventually like to turn world order to favour their interests. And India, often seen as a lone voice for peace amid turbulence, has also made it clear that it will not shy away from securing its interests amid the global chaos. So, the question naturally arises that if the world is pushed to a brink where a full-blown war is inevitable, what would it look like? But before we delve into that, let’s first look at the possible triggers and how they are shaping the globe’s future.
Ukraine War Anchors a Divided Europe
Despite Donald Trump’s best efforts, there has not been much of a breakthrough in the Russia-Ukraine situation. The war has now entered its fourth year, hardening the divide between Moscow and the Western alliance led by the United States and NATO.
Western nations continue to supply Kyiv with weapons, intelligence and financial aid, while Russia has deepened military coordination with non-Western partners. Moscow’s recent use of advanced missile systems and sustained drone attacks on Ukrainian infrastructure has raised alarm in NATO capitals, particularly as strikes edge closer to alliance borders, according to reporting by Reuters and AP.
NATO’s collective defence commitment – Article 5 – remains the single most binding military guarantee in the world today, ensuring that any direct escalation involving a member state would automatically widen the conflict.
Russia, meanwhile, has leaned heavily on China for economic resilience, expanding trade in energy and technology while insulating itself from Western sanctions. India also played a key role here as it continued to buy Russian oil at a cheaper rate, despite threats from the West and the US. The US also levied a steep 50% tariff on Indian goods for buying Russian oil, escalating the tension between the two countries. India’s sustained purchases of crude oil seemed to have helped Russia economically at a time when it was dealing with tough economic sanctions from the West.
China, Taiwan and the Indo-Pacific Flashpoint
In Asia, China’s claim over Taiwan represents what many analysts consider the most dangerous single flashpoint in the world today. Beijing has repeatedly stated that Taiwan is a core national interest and has not ruled out the use of force to bring the island under its control.
The United States, while maintaining its policy of “strategic ambiguity,” has strengthened military cooperation with regional allies including Japan, South Korea and Australia. Initiatives such as AUKUS and the Quad reflect Washington’s effort to counterbalance China’s growing military and economic influence in the Indo-Pacific, a Financial Times report said.
Any conflict over Taiwan would almost certainly draw in multiple powers, transforming a regional crisis into a global confrontation. Trump’s action in Venezuela is being seen as a catalyst here as many geopolitical experts feel China can use that playbook to embolden its claim on Taiwan.
Trump, Venezuela and Economic Power as a Weapon
In Latin America, Venezuela has emerged as a new point of international friction after US President Donald Trump publicly pushed for a $100 billion investment drive to revive the country’s collapsed oil industry following Washington’s dramatic intervention in Caracas. The manner in which Venezuela’s Nicolas Maduro and his wife were captured and brought to the US for a trial has already stunned the world. Unlike his predecessors, Trump did not even try to disguise the move and assign some noble cause to it as he boldly claimed that now US would manage the country’s vast oil reserves.
Trump has argued that reopening Venezuelan oil flows under US oversight would lower global energy prices. “One of the things the United States gets out of this will be even lower energy prices,” he told oil executives, according to a BBC report.
The episode has highlighted how economic tools – energy access, sanctions and tariffs – are now being used as aggressively as military force in global power contests.
Tariffs, Trade Wars and Strategic Pressure
Trump’s return to aggressive tariff diplomacy has further unsettled global markets and alliances. His administration has threatened steep tariffs on countries continuing to import Russian oil, including India, while also floating punitive duties on Chinese goods.
According to Reuters, these tariff threats are intended to force geopolitical compliance rather than simply correct trade imbalances, a shift that has alarmed allies and rivals alike.
India, which has tried to maintain strategic autonomy amid competing pressures, now finds itself navigating strained trade ties with Washington while deepening defence cooperation with the US and Europe.
Iran’s Unrest and the Middle East Axis
In the Middle East, Iran is facing widespread domestic protests driven by economic hardship and political repression. Rights groups cited by Reuters say dozens have been killed in clashes with security forces, while Tehran has accused foreign powers of fomenting unrest.
Iran’s position remains pivotal. It maintains close ties with Russia and China while backing regional proxy forces opposed to US and Israeli interests. Any wider conflict involving Iran would immediately draw in multiple regional and global actors.
India-Pakistan: A Persistent Nuclear Fault Line
In South Asia, India and Pakistan remain locked in a long-standing rivalry underpinned by nuclear deterrence. While no full-scale conflict is underway, periodic border tensions and diplomatic breakdowns ensure the region remains a latent flashpoint in any global crisis.
At present, the Trump regime seems to be kinder to Pakistan, but if history has taught us anything, it always go against our neighbour’s interest in the longer run.
A World Moving Towards Multipolarity
Taken together, these developments point to a global system no longer anchored to a single centre of power. Instead, multiple poles – the US-led Western bloc, a China-Russia axis, and a growing Global South seeking strategic autonomy – are shaping a fragmented order.
Joint military exercises between China, Russia and Iran, expanded BRICS membership, and resistance to Western sanctions reflect this shift, according to the Financial Times.
BRICS vs NATO
Trump’s leadership style, marked by unilateral action, tariff threats and transactional diplomacy, has accelerated this disruption, weakening traditional alliances while forcing countries to hedge their bets.
History suggests that world wars rarely begin with a single trigger; they emerge from overlapping crises, hardened alliances and failed diplomacy. Today’s geopolitical map shows many of those elements already in place.
While a third world war is not inevitable, the alignment of allies and adversaries is becoming clearer and more brittle as power fractures across military, economic and political lines. The question facing global leaders is whether these fault lines can still be managed, or whether miscalculation will turn today’s proxy struggles into tomorrow’s global confrontation. Only time will tell.
