Eurasia Press & News
Bottom Line Up Front
There are myriad assumptions by the Trump administration that have proven faulty thus far and have contributed to the devastation wrought by this conflict to date.
In addition to misplaced assumptions, Washington’s strategic communications have hampered the military campaign.
Tehran recognizes that it will not be able to defeat the U.S. and Israel in a conventional conflict, but its approach will only allow for a Pyrrhic victory for Iran’s enemies.
A deeply damaged yet surviving hardcore of the regime could also seek to race to develop a nuclear bomb, seeing it as the only potential safeguard from future attacks.There are myriad assumptions by the Trump administration that have proven faulty thus far and have contributed to the devastation this conflict has wrought to date. Perhaps the most incredulous is the President seemingly downplaying or dismissing the likelihood that, in the event of a war with Tehran, the Iranians would resort to shutting down the Strait of Hormuz. This amounts to more than a gaffe and could be more aptly characterized as foreign policy malpractice, a truly inexplicable oversight that was the subject of questioning by numerous senators at Wednesday’s Worldwide Threats hearing in the House.
The conflict between the U.S. and Iran has been the centerpiece of untold numbers of wargames and tabletop exercises spanning decades. These simulations, run by think tanks, war colleges, and intelligence agencies, provide important insight into adversary behavior and result in a compendium of lessons learned and best practices, as well as a panoply of potential scenarios that can help inform U.S. war planning. So, the possibility of Iran pursuing a strategy of attrition through economic warfare was eminently knowable and openly debated amongst scholars, analysts, and military strategists.
In addition to misplaced assumptions, Washington’s strategic communications have hampered the military campaign. Nearly two weeks ago, President Trump stated, “I think the war is very complete, pretty much.” He claimed that it was “largely over in two or three days.” Yet, the war has continued to drag on, and the Pentagon is now seeking an additional $200 billion to fund the military campaign. With a Marine Expeditionary Unit (MEU) en route from Asia to the Gulf, in addition to the more than 50,000 troops already in the region, the conflict seems poised to escalate rather than end anytime soon. Clearly, the Israelis are intent on escalating the conflict, evidenced by the attack on Iranian energy infrastructure at the South Pars gas field, which prompted Iranian retaliation against a number of energy targets throughout the region, including attacking Qatar’s Ras Laffan, numerous sites in Saudi Arabia, and a ballistic missile strike on a refinery in Haifa. The U.S. and Israel seem to have underestimated Iran’s staying power, and perhaps their own missile defense capabilities. To date, according to Bloomberg, the U.S. has lost at least sixteen aircraft so far, including at least ten Reaper drones. According to CNN, an F-35, a stealth 5th-generation fighter plane which costs between $80-$100 million to produce, was forced to land at a base in the region after allegedly being struck by an Iranian missile. U.S. bases in the region have been shelled repeatedly, and embassies evacuated.
President Trump has vacillated between asking traditional U.S. allies for help and castigating them as irrelevant and ungrateful. To little surprise, these erratic positions have been unsuccessful in garnering allied support for critical U.S. objectives, such as opening the Strait of Hormuz. There have been other unforced efforts that come across as amateurish. For example, as reported by the Wall Street Journal, just as the war in Iran was kicking off, the U.S. Navy was decommissioning four of its specialist minesweeping vessels. In another stunning self-inflicted wound, the Trump administration has downsized and cut resources from the U.S. Department of State’s Bureau of Near Eastern Affairs, even eliminating a dedicated Iran office and merging it with the section on Iraq.
In addition to the Administration’s unchecked assumptions is the list of evidently unforeseen consequences of this war, including the attack on Gulf nations and the risk of a spike in oil prices, apparent to even the casual observer of Middle East geopolitics. There also appears to be an assumption within the Trump administration that the war could be finished swiftly. Perhaps the Delta Force snatch-and-grab raid of Venezuelan strongman Nicolás Maduro and his wife imbued President Trump with a false sense of how seamless military operations against U.S. adversaries could be in practice. The tactical brilliance of U.S. military capabilities can be a powerful elixir. But relying on a single data point is never wise; it also belies a profound lack of understanding of the challenges posed by Iran, a country with a completely different history, geography, demographics, and culture. The senior leadership of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) was forged in battle during the 1980-1988 Iran-Iran War, a formidable experience that shaped the worldview of many regime hardliners.
The Iranians have so far survived a decapitation of the regime and systematic U.S. and Israeli degradation of high-value targets, missile depots, and other critical command-and-control nodes. Iran has crossed red lines and targeted hotels, water desalination plants, and energy infrastructure throughout the region. Tehran recognizes that it will not be able to defeat the U.S. and Israel in a conventional conflict, but that asymmetric tactics, mosaic defense, and a willingness to pursue a scorched earth approach will only allow for a Pyrrhic victory for Iran’s enemies. Cheap Iranian drones are depleting expensive THAAD and Patriot missile batteries. Still, besides the Iranian people, the biggest loser of this conflict might be the Gulf States, which have been relentlessly targeted because they host American military bases; yet, hosting those bases has not resulted in being protected. In an ironic twist, the very deal the Gulf States sought to protect them from Iran made them a target of the regime’s missiles and drones. U.S.-Gulf dynamics could be forever changed as a result of this war, which has spilled throughout the entire region.
During Wednesday’s House hearing on Worldwide Threats, Director of National Intelligence (DNI) Tulsi Gabbard said: “The objectives that have been laid out by the president are different from the objectives that have been laid out by the Israeli government.” In a meeting yesterday with Japan’s Prime Minister, Trump said, “I told Netanyahu not to attack oil and gas facilities anymore. We act independently, we have excellent relations, we are in agreement, but sometimes he does something I don’t like, and then… that’s why we don’t do that anymore.” Trump also suggested that the U.S. would not be sending ground troops to Iran, while Netanyahu seemed open to the idea.
The inability of the Trump administration to explain the endgame in Iran is another troubling aspect of the war. Israel is clearly pushing for the outright collapse of the regime, but the more likely scenario is a wounded, yet not fully defeated, rump IRGC core left with money and weaponry to continue on. Pockets of the country, particularly where armed ethnic groups are situated, are likely to become ungoverned spaces. But if Iran limps along in durable disorder, the country could devolve into a persistent insurgency that spills across its borders and destabilizes numerous other countries in the region. Leaked U.S. intelligence reports suggest that the Iranian regime will likely survive this conflict. A deeply damaged yet surviving hardcore of the regime could also seek to race to develop a nuclear bomb, seeing it as the only potential safeguard from future attacks. If that occurs, it will inevitably lead to a nuclear arms race in the Middle East, a nightmare scenario for the entire world.
Heading into its fourth week, the war in Iran has significantly degraded the regime in Tehran, especially in military capacity. At the same time, the Secretary of the Treasury, Scott Bessent, said that the U.S. is considering lifting sanctions on Iranian oil currently stranded on tankers. Washington recently lifted sanctions on Russian oil shipments. And Chinese oil shipments continue to flow through the Strait of Hormuz, though shipments for U.S. allies in Europe and Asia are prevented from transiting through. In other recent comments, Secretary Bessent suggested that Kharg Island could one day become a “U.S. asset,” a potential foreshadowing of plans to seize the territory by force to gain a stranglehold on Iranian oil, even though Trump has said the U.S. will not introduce ground troops, declaring, “I’m not putting troops anywhere.”
Despite overwhelming U.S. and Israeli firepower, the Iranians have stepped up their use of cluster munitions, while at the same time, numerous high-tech radars in the region have been disabled by Iranian missile and drone strikes, meaning more munitions are now getting through U.S., Israeli, and Gulf missile defenses. Iran also appears to be relying more on road-mobile launchers. The U.S. military continues to perform heroically and impressively, even amid subpar political leadership that endangers the mission’s success. It remains unclear how much longer the war will last, but with requests for additional funding and more troops flowing into the theater, it seems that Washington is planning for an extended campaign.
