Eurasia Press & News
The world is heading towards the most dangerous path after the Russian invasion of Ukraine reached another milestone last month. In this, Russian President Putin and North Korean leader Kim Jong Un signed a new defense pact that permanently changed the international security landscape in Europe and Asia. The newly enacted Russia-North Korea defense pact includes a mutual defense provision, which means that the other will provide military assistance if either country is attacked.
Additionally, the pact ensures that both countries offer immediate military and other aid using all available means if either is involved in a war. The new defense pact is an unanticipated massive shift in the equilibrium of the international security landscape that could threaten world peace. The new coalition of Russia and North Korea presents a more significant immediate challenge to Ukrainian President Zelensky’s plans and the future of Ukraine. It is clear now that the newly enacted defense pact attempts to pressure Ukraine President Zelensky’s ambitious plan by expanding the theater of influence beyond Ukraine and potentially exerting more pressure on the Korean Peninsula. This unintended consequence of strategic miscalculation of the West makes the Korean Peninsula more vulnerable, with increased risk to the United States’ military presence in the region.
Defense Pact Between Russia and North Korea
The strategic move of Russia and North Korea comes at a time when the United States is facing greater responsibility in maintaining the world order in Ukraine in Europe, Israel’s war against Hamas in the Middle East, Taiwan, and the most important strategic military deployment of the United States in South Korea in East Asia. In this, Russia masterfully reached out to North Korea with a position of strength and sent a clear message to the West that North Korea is not an isolated country but a formidable force backed by Russia. The newly enacted defense pact now validates North Korean weapons and ammunition supplies to Russia as a legitimate part of the pact. In the past, Russia and China maintained steadfast relationships with North Korea but never discussed any defense pact that supported one another in war publicly.
Another development consequent to the defense pact is that North Korea has expressed interest in sending engineering and construction forces to participate in reconstruction works in the occupied areas in Ukraine. However, no commitment has yet been shown to deploy troops for military duties in Ukraine. North Korea’s willingness to send its construction forces into the occupied areas in Ukraine in wartime displays the level of mutual bond. This level of commitment between Russia and North Korea affects South Korea’s capacity to maintain stability in the region.
On the other hand, President Putin’s statement, “Russia reserves the right to supply weapons to the other regions including North Korea,” is a veiled threat to South Korea and a mirror response to the West’s weapons supplies to Ukraine. Russia is potentially preventing South Korean direct arms shipments to Ukraine while exerting more pressure on South Korea to stay away from the danger by supporting Ukraine. Any escalation of unwarranted security development or tensions in the Korean peninsula invariably adds more pressure on the United States. So far, North Korea has maintained its ability single-handedly, challenging not only South Korea but also the West. Any unmitigated steps by South Korea could jeopardize its stability and have a long-lasting impact on future relationships with Russia. So far, there is no direct impact on South Korea other than the veiled threat. However, any risky move in support of Ukraine directly could change the course of stability by adding a new dimension to the tensions in the region.
Against this backdrop, one thing is clear: South Korean leadership has the daunting task of striking a balance that prevents escalation of the tensions in the peninsula while maintaining the status quo. As a mitigation, South Korea needs to act in a manner that promotes its security rather than risking its future by having more adversaries. The proper steps will weaken the newly enacted defense pact between Russia and North Korea. The Ukraine conflict will likely be over soon, but the conflict with North Korea does not end.
Steadfast Western Support to Ukraine
As one can see, the Western support led by the United States prevented outright victory to Russia in Ukraine, consequently reducing combat efficiency through advanced weapon systems supplied by the West. As a countermeasure, President Putin was planning to destabilize the West, and, in many instances, he had openly expressed his desire to dislodge the existing world order headed by the United States. As a part of a grand strategy, Russia is overtly and covertly using its influence to destabilize cohesiveness among member states of NATO and its allies.
Another significant development in Europe, the stunning election gains of the Far-right parties in the European Union, changed France and Germany’s political balance of power. Such changes in the political environment and leadership in the region will add complexity while influencing Ukraine to work on a plan to end the war sooner. Many countries have already expressed their sentiments supporting Ukraine’s peace plan. Out of all, the outcome of the presidential election in November in the United States would be crucial for the European Union and Ukraine. While France and Germany focus on domestic political developments, the rhetoric of sending NATO troops to Ukraine has abruptly stopped with vehement objections from the newly elected political power in the European Union. On the other hand, former President Trump is strategizing a plan to end the war in Ukraine if he becomes the president of the United States.
Meanwhile, Hungarian Prime Minister Orbán, upon assuming the presidency of the European Union, traveled to Ukraine for his first official tour while insisting on a ceasefire that would eventually end the war. Despite over two years of enormous support from the West led by the United States, Ukraine has not established a favorable position that helps Ukraine at the negotiating table. The growing Russian military strength and security agreement with North Korea weakened the Ukrainian position and added a new dimension to the conflict in the Korean peninsula. As things unfold, it seems that Ukraine is running out of time to find a meaningful military outcome but to end the war with negotiations. All evidence suggests that President Zelensky’s ambition to declare victory over Russia is an overestimation fueled by the influence of the West. As of now, all parties must come to a negotiating table, shedding their egos. The more delays incur more pain to Ukraine while making the world more dangerous.
Need to Reevaluate Strategic Approach
As the world becomes more dangerous, it is time for the United States to reevaluate its strategic approach to dealing with adversaries to prevent further security deterioration. The continuation of the Ukraine war in the absence of direct negotiations involving all parties will only bring more misery to all. It is time to understand the future implications of the evolving security structures of adversaries that make the United States more vulnerable on the world stage. All efforts must be directed towards Russia to end the war and not to continue the war. So far, all efforts have been directed towards continuing the war without a plan to end the war. This approach has shown disastrous results, making the United States more vulnerable in other parts of the world. Early cessation of hostilities in Ukraine will prevent another strategic security disaster in the world order. It is abundantly clear that Ukraine is running out of time, and there is an urgency to come to a negotiated settlement to end the war, primarily due to rapid changes in the global political environment.
Lastly, Ukraine, as a sovereign nation, needs to act in a manner that promotes its security. There is no doubt that Ukraine needs to stand on its own now to end this brutal war and make every endeavor to gain access to the European Union for a better future. Only time will tell whether Ukraine will be a member of NATO. Nevertheless, peace is the most critical aspect of humankind that Ukrainians deserve to enjoy.
