Eurasia Press & News
In today’s summary:
Russian Armed Forces advance into residential areas of Kurakhovo; a pocket occupied by Ukrainian troops has been eliminated to the south of the city
Russian troops are expanding their control zone in the outskirts of Pokrovsk and are trying to send saboteurs there
At the Vremevsky salient, the Ukrainian Armed Forces drove the enemy from the outskirts of Velyka Novosyolka and the village of Novy Komar
Z-“war correspondents” told about the storming of Plekhovo in the Kursk region by North Korean special forces, probably becoming victims of a “scam”
The pace of territorial advancement of the Russian Armed Forces in Ukraine has slowed to the lowest level since October
In November 2024, a 20% drop in the intensity of the use of FAB with UMPK by Russian aviation was recorded
After a long break, a new ATACMS attack was carried out on Russian territory – the target was military facilities in Taganrog
Biden Administration Plans to Speed Up Military Aid to Ukraine Before Trump’s Inauguration
The situation at the front
This week, the situation in the Kurakhovsky operational area for the Ukrainian Armed Forces continued to deteriorate.
The Russian Armed Forces advanced within the city limits of Kurakhovo , occupying , in particular, the Yuzhny microdistrict, while fighting continued in the city’s high-rise buildings . In addition, Z-sources reported the elimination of the “pocket” to the south of the city, where units of the Ukrainian Armed Forces were still defending themselves , which is partially confirmed by the “flag exchanges” in Uspenovka and Annovka . Ukrainian channels blame ( 1 , 2 ) the former commander of the Donetsk OTG, Alexander Lutsenko, for the current situation and note that the decision to withdraw Ukrainian forces from the “pocket” should have been made much earlier.
In the Pokrovsk direction, the Ukrainian Armed Forces are also facing a growing crisis: the Russian Armed Forces have occupied Shevchenko to the south of Pokrovsk (before 2016, Krasnoarmeysk) and are trying to send sabotage and reconnaissance groups to the city , which they have so far managed to destroy in a timely manner . At the same time, the Russian side is reporting Ukrainian counterattacks in this area. In addition, due to the proximity to the front line, one of the three coking coal mines near Pokrovsk, which are critically important for Ukraine’s military industry, has stopped working .
Tatarigami_UA writes that the success of the Russian Armed Forces in the Pokrovsk direction is due to the use of small groups of infantry to find weak spots in the enemy’s defense, after which the main attack is directed at these areas of the LBS . Also, the competent use of drones and FAB with UMPK plays a significant role . Another important component of the success of the Russian offensive, which Tatarigami_UA writes about, is flanking maneuvers that allow cutting off the supply routes of the Ukrainian military in fortified areas. In turn, on the part of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, there are problems with coordinating efforts between units and a shortage of personnel.
At the Vremevsky salient, “war correspondent” Yuriy Kotenok confirms the withdrawal of the Russian Armed Forces from Novy Komar and the southern outskirts of Velyka Novosyolka , while the Ukrainian side claims to have cleared Razdolnoye . According to the assessment ( 1 , 2 , 3 , 4 ) of Ukrainian military observer Konstantin Mashovets, the Russian command has deployed up to 55,000 men, 348 tanks, 815-820 armored fighting vehicles , 430-432 artillery systems, and 110-112 MLRS units to the offensive in this area . Mashovets notes that the Russian Armed Forces managed to break through the Ukrainian defense to “tactical depth” in the area between Zolotaya Niva and Ugledar several weeks ago, but they were unable to take full advantage of this. The key current task for the Russian military appears to be the capture of Velyka Novosyolka in order to then move into the “deep rear” of the Ukrainian Armed Forces in the Zaporizhia region.
In Kursk Oblast, the liberation of the settlement of Plekhovo has been reported , which is confirmed by video recordings ( 1 , 2 ) and footage of the Russian assault being repelled in Kurilovka , located to the north . Z-“war correspondents” reported ( 1 , 2 ) that Plekhovo was cleared by North Korean special forces, but they could have been victims of an information “scam” . Meanwhile, the previously declared control of Dar’ino at the other end of the Ukrainian Armed Forces bridgehead in Kursk Oblast has not been confirmed: judging by Ukrainian footage , fighting is still ongoing there. Russian sources also announced the liberation of Novoivanovka, this time without any visual confirmation.
Last week, the Russian Armed Forces occupied 90 square kilometers in Ukraine, according to DeepState data analyzed by the Agency publication. This is the slowest rate of advance since the end of October. The indicator has been declining for the second week in a row . The Agency’s findings are confirmed by weekly calculations by the Oko Gora resource (according to them, the Russian Armed Forces captured 72 square kilometers from December 2 to 8, 2024, or 10 square kilometers per day).
Z-channels continue to complain ( 1 , 2 ) about the ban on personal vehicles at the front, which disrupts logistics and forces the military to spend money on taxis . Meanwhile, the Ukrainian side is strengthening another factor that is slowing down the Russian advancement: the Ptahi Madyara unmanned systems regiment has been transformed into the first of its kind, the 414th separate brigade of strike unmanned aircraft systems (OBruBAS).
Mutual shelling and sabotage
The Ukrainian Air Force Command reported ( 1 , 2 , 3 , 4 , 5 ) the interception of 133 drones, including the Shahed type , out of 318 launched (another 175 were “lost in location” due to electronic warfare or turned out to be false targets), as well as 85 out of 100 missiles of various types. At the same time, no UAV raids were reported from December 10 to 12, but on the night and morning of December 13, another massive missile and drone strike on Ukrainian energy facilities took place . A number of thermal power plants were seriously damaged, the Ukrainian holding DTEK reported. The Russian Defense Ministry admitted to the attack on civilian infrastructure and declared it a retaliatory strike for the use of Western long-range missiles on Russian territory.
The Wall Street Journal calculated the number of missiles and drones launched at Ukrainian territory in September, October and November 2024. It turned out that, compared to the same period of the previous year, the intensity of the use of strike weapons increased fourfold – to six thousand units .
On the other hand, in November 2024, the Russian Aerospace Forces dropped 20% fewer FABs with UMPK on Ukrainian territory than a month earlier. It is possible that the decrease in the intensity of the use of aerial bombs is to some extent due to the emergence of the ATACMS and Storm Shadow / SCALP-EG factor for the “old territories”. However, another probable explanation is unfavorable weather conditions.
During the week, the following Russian strikes on civilian infrastructure were reported:
On December 10, as a result of missile strikes on the city of Zlatopol in the Lozovsky district of the Kharkiv region, at least eleven people were injured ( 1 , 2 , 3 , 4 );
On the same day, a missile attack was launched on Zaporozhye, a private clinic was destroyed , the final number of dead was 11 people, and 22 people were injured.
The Russian Defense Ministry, in turn, reported ( 1 , 2 , 3 , 4 , 5 , 6 , 7 ) on the destruction of 108 aircraft-type drones over the territory of Russia and occupied Crimea. Successful Ukrainian strikes are known against the following targets:
on gas platforms in the Black Sea with the first known use of BEC carriers of FPV drones ;
at the ammunition depot in occupied Yenakiyeve in the Donetsk region;
on the fuel and energy complex facility in the Bryansk region;
an aircraft repair plant and a military airfield in Taganrog – after a long break, the strike was carried out by American ATACMS missiles , a total of 41 servicemen were injured, one was killed ( 1 , 2 );
at the barracks of the Akhmat Kadyrov Special Police Regiment in Grozny.
In addition, this week in the center of Donetsk, the car of the head of the colony in Elenovka was blown up, where in 2022, Azov fighters were killed in an explosion, and sources in Ukrainian intelligence reported the murder of drone and missile designer Mikhail Shatsky in the Moscow region. The Main Intelligence Directorate also reported two mainline diesel locomotives burned down at a Bryansk depot.
The Insider has summed up the preliminary results of the strikes by Western ATACMS and Storm Shadow/SCALP-EG missiles on the internationally recognized territory of Russia. According to this assessment, they are not the most optimistic – the number of such missiles at the disposal of the Ukrainian Armed Forces is limited, and most of the potential targets in the form of frontline aviation have already been removed from their reach . Nevertheless, the threat of strikes will inevitably force the Russian command to organize logistics and troop movements, increasing and complicating the transport shoulder and response time to certain challenges.
The Insider also published a column by Fabian Hoffman, a researcher in nuclear and missile security at the University of Oslo (Norway), about the Russian medium-range ballistic missile Oreshnik, launched at the end of November at the city of Dnepr. According to his assessment, the use of Oreshnik will not affect the course of the war in Ukraine, but will force the West to reconsider its defense strategy .
Losses
The BBC Russian Service and the Mediazona publication, together with a team of volunteers, have updated the casualty count in the war on the Russian side based on open source reports. A total of 83,338 are known to have died, with 2,365 names added to the list between December 6 and 13. Since the start of the invasion, 4,467 officers have died, including eight generals and another 486 servicemen of the rank of lieutenant colonel and above. As the journalists note, the real number of deaths on the Russian side could be between 128,231 and 185,196 people .
Volodymyr Zelensky announced that 43 thousand people have died on the battlefield since the start of the full-scale war . Another 370 thousand, according to him, were wounded, half of whom returned to duty. Earlier, Ukrainian military journalist Yuriy Butusov wrote that the General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine transmitted information to the Commander-in-Chief’s Headquarters about 105 thousand killed and missing.
A lieutenant of the Russian Armed Forces shot and killed a 19-year-old conscript in Primorsky Krai. This was reported by Vazhnye Istorii, citing relatives of the deceased. According to the article, during a briefing on handling an AK-12, the commander fired a burst into the formation. Before this, the young man had been repeatedly subjected to physical violence and torture for refusing to sign a contract with the Russian Defense Ministry and go to the “SVO” .
An examination confirmed the forgery of the signature of 20-year-old conscript Nikita Molochkovsky from the Sakhalin Region, who allegedly signed a contract with the Russian Defense Ministry, went to war in Ukraine and died there. At the end of 2023, Molochkovsky claimed that his commander had forged the signature for him and went to court, but he was unable to challenge the decision before being sent to the front. The deceased conscript belonged to the small Nivkh people. Earlier, it became known that one of the last Kereks (an indigenous people of Chukotka), Ivan Taymagyr, died during military operations in the Kursk Region.
Weapons and military equipment
This week, the United States announced two military aid packages for Ukraine. The first , worth $988 million under USAI , included ammunition for HIMARS , UAVs, as well as equipment, components, and spare parts for the maintenance and repair of previously delivered weapons. The second package, worth $500 million, allocated under the PDA procedure , included ammunition for artillery, ATGMs , counter-drone systems, and HIMARS, as well as MRAP armored vehicles , HMMWVs, “light tactical vehicles,” and other weapons and equipment. In addition, the State Department approved the allocation of $266.4 million to pay for the maintenance of F-16 fighters. According to CNN , the Biden administration intends to supply Ukraine with hundreds of thousands of artillery rounds , thousands of missiles, and hundreds of armored vehicles by the end of his presidential term . At the same time, the US House of Representatives refused to include a provision on lend-lease for Ukraine, which would involve the transfer of weapons with subsequent payment, in the military budget for 2025.
The Insider’s security and defense columnist Colby Bedworth considers what else Biden could do to help Ukraine before Donald Trump takes office, including JASSM and SLAM-ER cruise missiles, lowering the price cap on Russian oil, improving sanctions enforcement, and pressuring Israel and the Republic of Korea to provide direct military aid to the Ukrainian Armed Forces.
Also this week, the following military aid packages for Ukraine became known:
Denmark has transferred the second batch of F-16 fighters to Ukraine – a total of 19 aircraft were promised, the first batch was transferred in August 2024;
Elon Musk’s company SpaceX received a contract to provide access to the highly secure Starshield service developed for the Pentagon for 2,500 Starlink terminals transferred to Ukraine;
Canada will provide almost $600 million in aid to Ukraine. About $400 million will go to financial support, $35 million to “enhance cyber resilience.” The rest of the funds, as Canadian Defense Minister Bill Blair explained, will be spent on military aid;
The next package from Lithuania included tractors, ammunition and other equipment for the Ukrainian Armed Forces;
The Czech company AKM Group-CZ delivered a batch of large-caliber cartridges, mortar shells, aircraft missiles and grenades to Ukraine.
Among the new products of the Ukrainian military-industrial complex, a modification of the Osa-AKM air defense missile system with R-73 air-to-air missiles was spotted at the front. It is claimed that all anti-aircraft missile regiments of the Ukrainian Armed Forces received the modernized systems thanks to the assistance of the Turn Alive Foundation. Also , Ukrainian FPV drones controlled via fiber-optic cable have reportedly appeared at the front, several months after the Russian ones. In total, according to the infographics of the Oko Gora resource, over 11 months the Ukrainian military-industrial complex has supplied 1.1 million drones, the lion’s share of which are FPV. However, the Ukrainian drone industry is under threat of a reduction in the supply of key components by Chinese manufacturers.
Russian drone assemblers, in turn, recruit teenagers from 14 years old in Kazakhstan under the guise of college education. The Russian defense industry also marked the completion of a contract for BMD -4M, equipped, according to a press release from the High Precision Complexes holding, with standard “barbecues” , additional protection and means of reducing visibility. Meanwhile, rather rare BMD-3s were sent to the front, noted Ukrainian military expert Andrey Tarasenko.
Finally, Russian frontline craftsmen have mounted a block of unguided B-8M1 air-launched missiles on the “loaf”. “No worse than the Vozrozhdenie bicaliber MLRS, even better – it exists,” Andrey Tarasenko says ironically about this.
