Without Assad, Syria Will Fall Apart – OpEd

As President Bashar al-Assad flees Syria, neocons and Zionists celebrate throughout the world, while those who will truly suffer—the people of Syria—will be left to clean up the mess of American and Israeli ambitions. Despite the accusations against Bashar al-Assad, those who have replaced him are much worse—the Hay’at Tahir al Sham. Formed in 2011, the CSIS claims this group is an al-Qaeda affiliate of Jabhat al-Nusra. In 2018, the State Department designated it as a foreign terrorist organization that retains a “Salafi-jihadist” ideology, meaning they intend to wage war on modernity, which they claim has twisted the minds of Muslims.

The swift victory of HTS seems sudden to many in the West. Past events had signaled that Assad had all but won the civil war: they had regained membership to the Arab League in 2023 and the last strongholds of the SDF were recaptured. Two important questions appear in the analysis of the Syria situation: Who supported the HTS in the swift victory against Assad? What will happen to Syria as a country now that its twenty-four-year government has been toppled? Past events both in Syria and elsewhere may help answer these questions.

The Syrian Mess

The larger goal in Syria is to hurt Iranian influence in the area by toppling Bashar al-Assad, as Gideon Rachman stated: “Those who take the Iranian threat very seriously argue that the best way to deal a blow to Tehran is to topple its regional ally—the Assad regime in Damascus.” To do this, the United States government and its agencies have funded rebel groups in Syria in hopes one will eventually take out Assad. But the rebels in Syria all have different goals, ideologies, and funders. In 2013, it was believed that there were 1000 armed opposition groups in Syria. This did not stop people such as Hillary Clinton and the State Department from sending support to rebel groups, even if these groups were affiliated with al-Qaeda. Clinton stated:

We know al Qaeda [leader Ayman al-] Zawahiri is supporting the opposition in Syria. Are we supporting al Qaeda in Syria? Hamas is now supporting the opposition. Are we supporting Hamas in Syria?

Despite this knowledge, support for rebel groups had not gone anywhere. In an email from the current National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan to then-Secretary of State Clinton, it was stated that, “Al-Qaeda is our friend in Syria.” Other rebel groups, such as the Free Syrian Army, led by General Idris, have been accused of working with al-Qaeda but were still graced with a visit from John McCain and asked for “weapons and other military aid.” Other “moderate” rebels who seek “democracy” in Syria, like the Northern Storm Brigade, have taken to kidnapping civilians for ransom money, or the al-Qaeda-affiliated rebel group al-Nusra, which showed one of its military commanders, Abu Sakar, eating a human heart.

But the biggest player in the game in the fight against Bashar al-Assad has been the Syrian Democratic Forces—a Kurdish group led by the Kurdish militia, YPG. With the support of President Obama, a convinced President Trump, and a withering President Biden, the Kurds have found dominance in North-Eastern Syria. Conveniently enough, much of the Syrian oil fields and refineries are found in this part of the country. This is how the State Department was able to convince President Trump to stay in Syria. A Trump administration official stated:

I think DoD and State [Department] can now make the argument to [President Donald] Trump that we have to stay and make sure the oil flows or the U.S. company will lose all their investment. So it’s a gift for those who want us to stay in Syria.

Because of this, Syrian production of oil has dropped by 90 percent—from 353,000 bpd in 2011 to 24,000 bpd in 2018. Syria now relies on the production of consumer goods, such as olive oil, cotton, nuts, and seeds. The Kurds—with their newfound governance—have had increasing hostilities with native Arab tribes:

Some Arab tribes in the Deir Ezzor region, with whom they have partnered in the fight against the so-called Islamic State (IS) over the past several years, have rebelled against them in recent months over allegations of discrimination and an inadequate share of oil revenues.

The United States has not been the only actor waiting to see Assad toppled. Israel too has made it its policy to overthrow Assad. The Times of Israel even made it clear in April of 2024 that “the Israelis clearly warned Assad that if Syria was used against them, they would destroy his regime.” The ultimate goal for both the United States and Israel in both Syria and the whole Middle East is destabilization. This harkens back to the days of Henry Kissinger when dealing with Bashar al-Assad’s father—Hafez al-Assad—on the Palestinian situation. In a documentary called HyperNormalisation by Adam Curtis, Kissinger’s policy was laid out:

Kissinger thought that strengthening the Arabs would destabilize his balance of power. So he set out to do the very opposite, to fracture the power of the Arab countries, by dividing them, and breaking their alliances so they would keep each other in check.

Compared to What?

Despite Bashar al-Assad’s crimes, he is the only realistic answer to Syria’s troubles. When analyzing Assad, people must ask themselves the common question for which economists are known: compared to what? Let’s not forget how Iraq looked after Saddam Hussein was toppled in 2003. An Iraqi by the name of Kadom al-Jabouri took his sledgehammer to help topple Saddam Hussein’s statue as US troops entered the city. A decade later, he says why he regrets it: “Then we had only one dictator. Now we have hundreds.” Iraq today suffers from the typical instability produced by countries unaccustomed to parliamentarianism. In 2022, protestors stormed the Iraqi parliament in support of a cleric named al-Sadr.

Today, many Iraqis feel as though they do not have sovereignty within their own nation, as their politicians are either American or Iranian puppets. Libya, too, after Gaddafi, experienced a resurgence of chattel slavery where a man was bought for $400 in an auction. Much like Russia during the 1990s, people in nations that are corrupt and destabilized will come to the conclusion that law, order, and stability are far more attractive than a failed democracy or vague ideas of liberty. Now, with the war in Ukraine coming to an end, as admitted by President Zelensky, Putin may come to the aid of President Assad, but until then the people of Syria will continue to live amongst the terror and infighting of the HTS.