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Israel’s PM is expected to use the high-stakes meeting to secure a commitment from the US to co-operate with it on future military attacks on Iran
Benjamin Netanyahu will seek Donald Trump’s support for a joint Israeli-US attack on Iran’s nuclear sites in return for maintaining the ceasefire in Gaza during a meeting with the President on Tuesday, according to former US officials.
Israel’s Prime Minister has become the first foreign leader to visit the White House under Trump in a high-stakes summit that will cover the second stage of the ceasefire, normalisation with Saudi Arabia, and plans to forcibly transfer the population of Gaza abroad.
“Almost everything is going to be determined in this meeting,” Israel’s deputy foreign minister Sharren Haskel told The i Paper ahead of the summit. “Only after the meeting will we be able to know what we are facing.”
Military action against Iran
Central to Netanyahu’s demands will be action against regional rival Iran in return for maintaining the ceasefire.
Trump strongly intends to maintain the truce and could offer support for military strikes against Iran’s nuclear programme as an incentive for Israeli co-operation, according to Ken Katzman, a former CIA official and a Middle East analyst at the US-based Soufan Center think-tank.
“Iran is going to be heavily discussed, particularly what to do about Iran’s nuclear programme,” he said. “Netanyahu does not want Iran to keep advancing towards a nuclear weapon and he’s got a friendly and receptive audience in the White House for more aggressive actions to take out Iran’s programme. I suspect joint military action is going to be discussed.”
Before his meeting with Netanyahu, Trump revealed he had instructed his advisors that Iran be “obliterated” if they assassinate him while signing an executive order calling for the government to reimpose his “maximum pressure” campaign on Tehran, which includes efforts to drive its oil exports down to zero.
A successful attack would be likely to require direct American participation, the analyst said, because only the US is known to possess the 14-tonne “bunker buster” bombs capable of penetrating Iran’s buried nuclear facilities and the means to deliver them.
“Netanyahu’s preference is for a joint action with the US that would be crippling,” said Katzman. “Israel could do significant damage but only the US could destroy Iranian facilities for a long period of time and cripple the program.
“If Trump will not join the strike, then Israel wants large enough munitions and the refuelling capabilities to do the needed amount of damage.”
Josh Paul, a former US State Department official and now co-director of A New Policy, a think-tank focused on US Middle East policy, said he expected Netanyahu to leverage the ceasefire to secure “a commitment [from the US] to cooperate with Israel on future military strikes on Iran”.
Paul said it was likely that Tehran’s nuclear sites “would be the main focus” of any joint attack.
Israeli officials have openly advocated further strikes on Iran following an exchange of fire last year that reportedly damaged Iran’s air defences. Netanyahu has also vowed to prevent Tehran from developing a nuclear weapon.
Independent nuclear experts believe Iran has reached the threshold of being able to produce a bomb, with one recent assessment suggesting this could be done in as little as three weeks.
Trump was asked in January about the prospect of a joint strike on Iranian nuclear sites – having previously indicated support for an Israeli attack – and appeared to leave both diplomatic and military options open.
How could the US support an Israeli attack on Iran?
Bombs. Only the US is known to possess the 14-tonne bunker busters capable of penetrating Iranian nuclear sites deep underground.
Clearing a path. Washington could persuade allies in the region to allow the use of their airspace for raids, whereas Israel could not.
Refuelling. Specialised US aircraft could allow Israeli jets to refuel on journeys of more than 1,000km between Israel and Iran.
Intelligence. The US and Israel are closely aligned on the continued surveillance assessments of sensitive Iranian military sites.
Defence. As with previous Iranian strikes on Israel, the US would help to offer an air defence shield against potential retaliation.“It would really be nice if that could be worked out without having to go that further step,” he said. “Iran hopefully will make a deal, and if they don’t make a deal, I guess that’s OK too.”
Israel would require US participation in an attack to be effective, said Dr Andreas Krieg, a Middle East specialist at the School of Security Studies, King’s College London.
“Israel cannot strike Iran on their own,” he said, adding that US support would be needed for “launching the strike and getting consent and overflight rights from US partners in the region” as well as “defending from Iranian retaliation”.
But Krieg suggests that prospect was unlikely in the short term, because the Trump administration would first look at “ways to contain and degrade Iran…at low cost,” with Gulf allies favouring “engagement over escalation”.
Normalisation of Israel-Saudi Arabia ties
Israeli and US officials have suggested the Trump-Netanyahu summit could link strikes on Iran with the normalisation of ties with the region’s leading Sunni power, Saudi Arabia.
The Israeli leader expects “the advancement of the agreement with Saudi Arabia, and perhaps even a promise related to the Iranian nuclear project,” stated public broadcaster, Kann News, citing official sources.
Israel’s Channel 12 News reported that “Netanyahu will ask Trump to approve an attack on Iran first, a move that would lead to a normalisation agreement with Saudi Arabia, and only then complete phase two of the hostage deal.” Netanyahu’s office denied the Channel 12 report.
Trump’s Middle East envoy Steve Witkoff said the administration was determined to press ahead with the ceasefire agreement, and raised the prospect that this could lead to an expansion of the Abraham Accords of Trump’s first term – which normalised relations between Israel and the UAE, Bahrain, Morocco and Sudan – to include Saudi Arabia.
But the Kingdom has insisted any deal is contingent on Israel making a commitment to a process for the creation of a Palestinian state, which Netanyahu’s government has ruled out.
The far-right finance minister Bezalel Smotrich said on Monday he had told US officials any deal leading to a Palestinian state was unacceptable.
“I support a peace deal with Saudi Arabia but it can’t include giving hope to the PA and to the Arabs in Judea and Samaria and Gaza about a path for a Palestinian state,” the finance minister said, using the biblical name for the West Bank.
Riyadh might have been more flexible over this demand before the war in Gaza but Katzman believes its position has hardened over the heavy Palestinian death toll. “The price went up … because of Israel’s tactics in the war,” he said.
A new Israeli poll found that 60 per cent of respondents would accept a deal that involved normalisation with neighbouring Arab states, and the establishment of a Palestinian state.
Trump could offer further inducements to Netanyhau to stick with the deal, suggested Paul, such as protection against indictments from the International Criminal Court (ICC), and commitments to Israel on military aid, he added.
Congress has been deliberating over a bill to sanction the ICC, and the Trump administration has released a hold on 2,000lb bombs to Israel.
Forcible transfer of Palestinians from Gaza
Paul expects the meeting to cover Trump’s suggestion of transferring the population of Gaza to neighbouring countries during postwar reconstruction, naming Egypt and Jordan as potential destinations and urging their leaders to accept refugees.
The plan has been rejected by both countries and international allies, as well as the Palestinian Authority (PA) leadership, which exercises limited self-government in the occupied West Bank, which described it as “ethnic cleansing”.
“I think there’s plenty of reason to be concerned about that despite the very clear and explicit pushback from Arab leaders,” said Paul.
“Trump does have some leverage here, particularly with the suspensions of foreign assistance, that leaves countries like Jordan in particular in a tough spot.”
Second stage of the ceasefire with Hamas
Israel confirmed on Tuesday it will send negotiators to Qatar for mediated talks with Hamas over the second phase of the ceasefire this weekend, after Monday’s deadline for the resumption of talks passed, with the first phase expiring at the end of the month.
A member of the Israeli delegation to Washington DC told Haaretz that Israel would seek support from the White House for the “eradication” of Hamas before moving ahead with the second phase, which would see the Israeli army fully withdraw from Gaza as well as the release of the 79 remaining hostages and hundreds more Palestinian prisoners.
Netanyahu is under pressure from hardline members of his coalition to abandon the ceasefire. Smotrich claims the prime minister has promised to resume the war after phase one.
Governance of Gaza is likely to be central to discussions, according to Michael Mulroy, a former senior defence department official during Trump’s first term, who leads a US company providing humanitarian services in the devastated enclave.
“Entering the first phase of the agreement was hard between two entities that do not trust each other at all,” he said, referring to Israel and Hamas. “Going into the second phase will be even more difficult as it would require the full withdrawal of the Israel Defence Force (IDF).
“In order for that to happen there has to be another option for security in Gaza that does not have Hamas back in control.”
Israeli opposition parties have pressed Netanyahu to accept a role for the PA, which the prime minister has ruled out.
The Hostages and Missing Families Forum, which represents captives in Gaza, urged Trump to ensure the deal endures.
“Mr President, you are our hope for those that are still in captivity,” said Aviva Siegel, wife of recently freed US-Israeli national Kieth Siegel, in a statement from the group. “Our hope rests with you to make sure the next stages happen and all hostages return home.”
