Pushback in Kursk Ukraine risks losing its foothold across the border as Russian troops advance toward Sudzha

Like our earlier reports on the combat situation in Ukraine, this article takes stock of the recent developments on the battlefield based on open-source information. Meduza has condemned Russia’s invasion of Ukraine from the very start, and our detailed military analyses are part of our commitment to objective reporting on a war we firmly oppose.

Our map is based exclusively on open-source photos and videos, most of them posted by eyewitnesses on social media. We collect available evidence and determine its geolocation markers, adding only the photos and videos that clear this process. Meduza doesn’t try to track the conflict in real time; the data reflected on the map are typically at least 48 hours old.

Key updates as of March 11, 2025

Ukrainian forces in Russia’s Kursk region are retreating toward the border, with only the city of Sudzha and its outskirts remaining under their control after a powerful Russian assault. The city garrison is linked to Ukraine’s Sumy region by just one road and several parallel dirt paths, all of which are under constant Russian drone strikes.

Russian forces could soon physically cut off these routes. However, as seen in the battle for Bakhmut and other engagements, Ukrainian troops have proven capable of sustaining a desperate defense even under more difficult conditions.

Be that as it may, the concern remains that the brigades currently holding Ukraine’s foothold in the Kursk region, which are some of the AFU’s best, could suffer such heavy losses in a disorganized retreat that they may be unable to take part in a decisive battle for Donbas.

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Russia
Kursk region

After five months of failed attempts to advance on Sudzha from the north, Russian forces broke through in a single day, on March 8.

Ukrainian troops lost two key fortified positions — Malaya Loknya (to the northwest of Sudzha on the road to Lgov) and Martynovka to the northeast (on the Sudzha–Kursk highway) — along with nearly half of the remaining territory they controlled in the Kursk region.

As part of the Russian offensive, troops carried out an “underground landing” operation, with several units using a major gas pipeline to infiltrate Ukrainian rear positions on Sudzha’s northern outskirts. It remains unclear how much this maneuver influenced the overall offensive, as Russian forces were advancing on Martynovka and Malaya Loknya from multiple directions, not just underground. However, following this raid — though not necessarily because of it — Ukrainian troops began retreating toward Sudzha.

The March 8 assault followed several smaller operations. Russian forces advanced on Malaya Loknya from the west, recapturing nearby villages and taking control of Pogrebki, which they had unsuccessfully tried to seize for months. On March 7, Russian troops captured a Ukrainian fortified position in Cherkasskoye Porechnoye. From the southwest, Russian paratroopers advanced toward Malaya Loknya, retook Sverdlikovo and Lebedevka. By the time of the decisive assault, Malaya Loknya and its garrison were already in a critical position.

The pipeline operation may have also played a role in the battle for Martynovka. Judging by videos published by Ukrainian forces, Russian troops who infiltrated through the pipeline reached Sudzha’s northeastern exit along the road to Kursk — where Martynovka is located.

Regardless, after Russia’s March 8 offensive, Ukrainian forces now hold only Sudzha, several settlements on its outskirts, the village of Guevo to the south (which is effectively cut off from Sudzha), and the Sudzha–Sumy road.

Since Russian forces retook Sverdlikovo, their drones have been striking the Sudzha–Sumy road almost every hour, including at night. The road’s shoulders and parallel dirt paths are littered with destroyed Ukrainian equipment.

The situation is further complicated by Russian troops attempting to advance toward the road from the west, moving from the recently retaken village of Lebedevka, and from the southwest, near the village of Basivka in Ukraine’s Sumy region. Russian units south of Sudzha have also stepped up their activity.

Under these conditions, defending Sudzha is becoming increasingly dangerous for Ukraine. Ukrainian forces are already suffering heavy losses, but if Russian troops break through to the Sudzha–Sumy road, casualties could become unsustainable. Before March 8, Ukraine had more forces in the Kursk region than in the nearly encircled cities of Kurakhove, Selydove, and Vuhledar, where its troops were largely able to withdraw at the last moment. A similar retreat from Russian territory may prove far more difficult.

Ukraine
Pokrovsk and Velyka Novosilka

As Ukrainian defenses falter in the Kursk region, Ukrainian forces are carrying out counterattacks west and east of Pokrovsk against Russian units that broke through during the winter.

The Ukrainian Armed Forces are attempting to push Russian troops out of the industrial zones in Udachne and Kotlyne, west of Pokrovsk, while also striking the flanks — advancing from the west toward Uspenivka and from the northeast toward Shevchenko and Pishchane.

Earlier, Ukraine’s efforts to dislodge Russian troops from Pishchane were unsuccessful, after which Ukrainian forces shifted their focus eastward to Shevchenko, where they’ve managed to reach the center of the village.

At the same time, Ukrainian troops are trying to force Russian units out of Udachne and Kotlyne, using mass drone strikes on Russian supply lines — mirroring the situation Ukrainian forces themselves are facing on the Sudzha–Sumy road in the Kursk region.

In response, Russian commanders have launched their own offensive on the flanks. Russian forces continue advancing toward the Dnipropetrovsk region border between Kurakhove and Pokrovsk, and despite Ukrainian counterattacks, are attempting to expand their foothold along the Pokrovsk–Kostiantynivka road east of Pokrovsk.

Toretsk

Troops from Russia’s 8th Combined Arms Army, which previously took part in the capture of Kurakhove, were redeployed to Toretsk at the start of spring. There, two divisions of the 8th Army found themselves in a difficult position. They were meant to replace units of the 51st Army (which are likely being sent to Pokrovsk), but during the rotation, they came under a powerful Ukrainian counterattack.

Ukraine committed additional forces to the assault, including a brigade that had previously defended Chasiv Yar. Units from the Interior Ministry and the National Guard, which had previously defended Toretsk, also joined the offensive.

Ukrainian forces entered the city from three directions. Troops advancing through Krymske reached the city center, while units from the Zabalka neighborhood, on the opposite side, are attacking toward them. Meanwhile, Ukrainian troops fully recaptured Shcherbynivka and partially retook Leonidivka.

The counteroffensive appears to have disrupted Russia’s plans to advance on Kostiantynivka with the 8th Army and the forces currently assaulting Chasiv Yar.

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