Trump’s Iran tariffs: How will they impact the MENA region?

Countries across the region are assessing the fallout as the US moves to further isolate Iran’s economy

US President Donald Trump on Monday announced new tariffs aimed at further isolating Iran’s already strained economy, as the country faces its largest wave of anti-government protests in years.

Here is what we know so far.

What has the US announced?

In a post on Truth Social, Trump said the United States would impose a 25 percent tariff on any country that continues to do business with Iran.

“Effective immediately, any country doing business with the Islamic Republic of Iran will pay a tariff of 25 percent on any and all business being done with the United States of America,” he wrote. “This order is final and conclusive.”

The US administration has not provided further details on how the tariff will be implemented or enforced.

Which countries are most exposed?

Several countries in the Middle East and North Africa are likely to be among the most affected, including the United Arab Emirates, Iraq and Turkey.

All three are major trading partners of Iran and also export large volumes of goods to the United States.

Iran exported around $6 billion worth of goods to the UAE and imported approximately $18 billion in 2022, according to World Bank data. Trade between Iran and Turkey was valued at nearly $12 billion.

Turkey is particularly exposed because the United States is one of its largest export markets. In 2024, the US was Turkey’s second largest buyer, importing $16.8 billion worth of Turkish goods, according to US trade data.

Companies in Iraq and the UAE exported $7.5 billion and $7.4 billion worth of goods to the United States, respectively.

Tariffs on top of existing duties

Many countries in the region are already subject to US tariffs imposed earlier in Trump’s second term.

Since the so-called “Liberation Day” tariffs were introduced last April, Iraqi goods have faced duties of up to 39 percent, while Turkish and Emirati exports have been charged 10 percent.

Additional tariffs have targeted specific sectors, particularly metals. The UAE, a major exporter of aluminium to the United States, has seen a 50 percent tariff imposed on its aluminium exports.

What could the impact be?

The new measure forces companies that trade with Iran into a stark choice between protecting access to the US market or maintaining commercial ties with Tehran.

Iran is a key supplier of food and industrial goods to several countries in the region, raising the risk of economic disruption, including shortages and higher prices, if companies are forced to cut trade links.

Assessing the full impact remains difficult due to the lack of clarity around how the tariff will be applied. UAE Minister of State for Foreign Trade Thani Al Zeyoudi said on Tuesday that governments were still trying to evaluate the consequences.

“The tariff is going to have an impact for sure,” he said at an event, adding that authorities were continuing to assess the potential damage.

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