America is in decline. Eclipsed by China’s rise, it is shifting attention from the Middle East to the Indo-Pacific. That is one refrain in the analysis of three seemingly paradigm-challenging developments in the past month: a Chinese-mediated restoration of diplomatic relations between Saudi Arabia and Iran, the kingdom’s association with …

In 2019, I warned: “The Russian Federation is pursuing an active and wide-ranging strategy to reassert and strengthen its dominant position in the greater Black Sea region, which the Kremlin believes is critical for the restoration of Russia’s great power status. Consolidation of the Russian position in this region will …

Most commentaries on Finland’s accession to the Western alliance have focused on the fact that this development had doubled the land border between NATO and the Russian Federation. But Sergey Ishchenko says, an even more important consequence may be on the Baltic Sea and for Russia’s Baltic Fleet. With the …

The unprovoked Russian invasion of Ukraine on February 24, 2022, catapulted conventional military operations to the forefront of Western security thinking, re-kindled serious contemplation of major war in Europe, and galvanized dramatic re-thinking among Western countries about how to secure and protect democratic governance which has become the norm in …

Saudi and Omani delegations held talks with Houthi officials in Yemen’s capital Sanaa on Sunday, Houthi-run media said, as Riyadh seeks a permanent ceasefire to end its military involvement in the country’s long-running war. The visit indicates progress in the Oman-mediated consultations between Riyadh and Sanaa, which run in parallel …

In February 2023, Secretary of State Antony Blinken publicly confirmed that the Biden Administration supports a possible sale of F-16 fighter aircraft to Turkey (Türkiye), and has engaged Congress on the issue. According to January 2023 media reports citing unnamed U.S. officials, the Administration informally notified Congress of its intent …

Introduction The conventional wisdom is that wars end in negotiations. But their end is more often determined at the ballot box – or even in the opinion polls. A lack of public support brought America’s war in Vietnam to an end, the French war in Algeria to its close, and …

Once again the West struggles to enforce a deal of questionable value on unwilling Balkan participants. The old saying that a deal satisfying neither side involved in it must be a good deal does not apply to the text Western diplomacy (finally) published and forced on Serbia’s Aleksandar Vucic and …

The New Geopolitics of Energy It is not hard to understand why people dream of a future defined by clean energy. As greenhouse gas emissions continue to grow and as extreme weather events become more frequent and harmful, the current efforts to move beyond fossil fuels appear woefully inadequate. Adding …

How the Fight for Resources Is Upending Geopolitics As recently as 18 months ago, many policymakers, academics, and pundits in the United States and Europe were waxing lyrical about the geopolitical benefits of the coming transition to cleaner, greener energy. They understood that the move away from a carbon-intensive energy …