Is the region becoming the next battleground for great power competition? Not if Central Asian states have anything to say about it. As the Group of Seven met at the end of last week in Hiroshima, Japan, China organized a summit with Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan, marking a …
Read More »How Far Will the Thaw in Russia-Georgia Relations Extend?
The Georgian Dream’s gains from rapprochement with Moscow are quite nebulous, while the risks are very real. But the party itself, which has made a number of unforced errors lately, may see things differently.Russian President Vladimir Putin’s surprise move to scrap visa requirements for Georgian nationals and resume direct flights …
Read More »What’s Behind Russia’s Overture to Georgia?
Even if Georgia knew nothing about Russia’s decision beforehand, the current arrangement suits both the Kremlin and official Tbilisi: it helps Georgian Dream to hold on to power, while Russia is building on barely existent ties with Georgia that may lead to greater gains for Moscow in the future.Russian President …
Read More »A Reformer’s Conundrum: How the Uzbek Regime Undermines Its Own Stability
The Uzbek regime is losing stability because its objectives increasingly diverge from the public expectations that President Mirziyoyev himself worked to create.Uzbek President Shavkat Mirziyoyev finds himself in something of a conundrum. Having positioned himself as a reformer, he is now finding that grassroots demand for change is impeding his …
Read More »Putin’s Tactic of Inaction Could Backfire at Home
Putin’s plan is to wait out what he sees as inevitable changes in the West and Ukraine. These days, however, Russia’s elites are liable to see defeatism in inaction.Nothing is happening in Russia. At least, that’s the impression given by Vladimir Putin over the past six months. On some level, …
Read More »Ukraine’s Other Battle: Zelensky vs. the Mayors
The Ukrainian government can always justify waging a war against regional grandees as part of the fight against corruption and the desire to prevent Western aid from ending up in the pockets of local clans. Distinguishing anti-corruption campaigns from political persecution in Ukraine has always been difficult, and even Russia’s …
Read More »Kazakhstan Has Become a Pathway for the Supply of Russia’s War Machine. Here’s How It Works.
Western sanctions are meant to prevent Russia from supplying its military from abroad, but sensitive electronics are still getting through. Reporters traced several of these supply chains through Kazakhstan — and found that they run through companies newly established by Russians. Key Findings Trade statistics show large increases of drone …
Read More »Sudan and the New Age of Conflict
How Regional Power Politics are Fueling Deadly Wars How Regional Power Politics are Fueling Deadly Wars For the past year, much of the world’s attention has been focused on Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and rising tensions between the United States and China over Taiwan—flashpoints that could trigger direct or even …
Read More »Who Is Afraid of Georgian Democracy?
The Georgian government’s attempt to pass restrictive legislation on foreign influence provoked mass protests that ultimately led to the withdrawal of the bill. To anchor Georgia to Western values, the EU should support the country’s transition to institutional democracy. Georgia hit the headlines in March when thousands of people took …
Read More »Turkey Heads Into a Critical Election Runoff
A return to a parliamentary democracy system—the opposition’s most important electoral promise—is highly unlikely if Erdogan remains in power. This would be bad news for Turkey’s Western allies. After a dynamic and unfair campaign, the interim results of Turkey’s dual election send the two main presidential contenders to a second …
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