To analyze the crossroads Turkey faces in the 2023 elections, it could prove useful to “look back from the alternative futures” and explore how the possible outcomes might play out. Standing in the future, looking back It’s 2030 and seven years have passed since Turkey’s critical May 2023 elections. Since …
Read More »In an era of Middle East détente, how should the US and Israel respond?
The agreement between Saudi Arabia and Iran to renew their diplomatic relations, announced in Beijing last March, exemplifies a broader push and desire across the Middle East to resolve the region’s many disputes and reduce overall tensions. This broader trend also includes Syria’s return to the Arab fold, the resumption …
Read More »The Slowing Down of Israel-Arab Relations Under the Netanyahu Government
Key points During the Netanyahu government’s first five months, Israel-Arab ties have slowed down and tensions with the Palestinians have increased. Despite regional opposition to Netanyahu and his coalition, Arab leaders congratulated him on his victory and indicated a willingness to engage. Arab states have issued warnings or condemned statements, …
Read More »Not so fast: The case for a new SWIFT
In the new Netflix hit series The Diplomat, a fictional UK prime minister accurately ticks through the ways Russian President Vladimir Putin has been punished for his invasion of Ukraine: “We sanctioned Russian debt, embargoed their oil, and banned them from SWIFT.” In the fifteen months since Russia’s full-scale invasion …
Read More »Providing long-term security for Ukraine: NATO membership and other security options
As Russia’s unjustified war against Ukraine continues, a critical question will be whether and how NATO should enhance its support for Ukraine at its July summit in Vilnius, Lithuania. NATO has long stated that Ukraine will—eventually—become a member of the alliance, but a key decision for NATO will be how …
Read More »Russia’s Arrest of Evan Gershkovich Echoes Soviet Spy Scandal
The arrest of Wall Street Journal reporter Evan Gershkovich in March was the first time a Western journalist had been held on espionage charges in post-Soviet Russia — but it opened a floodgate of memories for Nicholas Daniloff. Daniloff was working as a journalist in the Soviet Union in 1986 …
Read More »‘We F***ed Up’: Shock But No Panic in Belgorod as Border Incursion Brings War Home
An attack by an armed group on a Russian region bordering Ukraine earlier this week has been met with a mixture of shock, anger and indifference, according to six interviews with locals conducted by The Moscow Times. The Belgorod region, which lies across the border from Ukraine’s second-largest city Kharkiv, …
Read More »Russian Border Region Says Ukrainian ‘Sabotage’ Unit Carried Out Incursion
The head of Russia’s Belgorod region which borders Ukraine, claimed Monday that a Ukrainian “sabotage group” had infiltrated the region, while anti-Kremlin Russians fighting alongside Ukraine’s forces appeared to take responsibility. “A VSU [armed forces of Ukraine] sabotage group entered the territory of Grayvoron district,” Belgorod Governor Vyacheslav Gladkov wrote …
Read More »China Looks to Fill a Void in Central Asia
Is the region becoming the next battleground for great power competition? Not if Central Asian states have anything to say about it. As the Group of Seven met at the end of last week in Hiroshima, Japan, China organized a summit with Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan, marking a …
Read More »How Far Will the Thaw in Russia-Georgia Relations Extend?
The Georgian Dream’s gains from rapprochement with Moscow are quite nebulous, while the risks are very real. But the party itself, which has made a number of unforced errors lately, may see things differently.Russian President Vladimir Putin’s surprise move to scrap visa requirements for Georgian nationals and resume direct flights …
Read More »