Eurasia

How Putin’s Flawed Assumptions Doomed Russian Victory in Ukraine

The war in Ukraine seems to be entering a transitional phase. Early on, Russia failed in its effort to take Kyiv—so Russian President Vladimir Putin scaled back his ambitions and shifted his military’s efforts to the Donbas region in eastern Ukraine. As both sides battle it out there, exhaustion and …

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UK spy chief says he doesn’t think Iran supreme leader wants to reach nuclear deal

‘The deal is absolutely on the table but I don’t think the Iranians want it,’ MI6 director tells security forum; CIA chief says Tehran’s advance toward atomic bomb is ‘troubling’ Britain’s spy chief voiced doubt Thursday on reviving a landmark 2015 nuclear accord with Iran, saying Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali …

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Iran says it seeks nuclear deal guarantees so as ‘not to be stung twice’

‘The Americans must accept some commitments. We do not want an agreement at any price,’ Hossein Amir-Abdollahian says Iran is seeking economic guarantees from the US to revive a long-stalled 2015 nuclear deal so as “not to be stung twice” the same way, its foreign minister said. The agreement, formally …

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UN nuclear chief: Iran’s program advancing at a gallop, we have little visibility

Rafael Grossi says project ‘has grown enormously, far beyond what it was in 2015,’ as Tehran creates new difficulties and negotiations remains stalled The head of the International Atomic Energy Agency warned Friday that Iran’s nuclear program “is advancing at a gallop and we have very little visibility.” Speaking to …

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Kremlinology and the Great Power Competition

While speculation around the potential demise of Putin’s regime is understandable, it is more helpful to consider the ‘so what’ of who comes next. Since Moscow’s invasion of Ukraine in February, speculation has swirled about the Russian leadership. One common theme is the supposedly shrinking circle of people around Vladimir …

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Towards a Regional Code of Conduct for Missiles in the Middle East

With missile stockpiles edging up across the Middle East, there is a clear need to develop a regional code for their acceptable use. The Middle East is entering a new missile age. More regional states are either developing indigenous production capabilities or importing missiles than ever before. Currently, 11 states …

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Friends with Benefits: Iran and Russia after the Ukraine Invasion

Despite speculation around Russian President Vladimir Putin’s recent trip to Tehran, Russia–Iran relations remain firmly transactional. President Vladimir Putin’s recent visit to Tehran, coupled with intelligence released by the US about Iran’s provision of armed drones to Russia, has renewed speculation that the relationship between the two might finally be …

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The Russia–China Alliance versus the West: What about the Rest?

As evidence mounts that the Global South is leaning closer to the Russia–China position over Ukraine, the West needs to think hard about how to regain the initiative in the narrative battle. The Ukraine war has further entrenched and exacerbated the geopolitical rivalry between the West and the Russia–China camp. …

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Raisi’s Election Is Galvanizing Both Sides of the Iran Nuclear Deal Debate

As the regime-anointed candidate in Iran’s presidential election charade last Friday, Ebrahim Raisi’s victory was thoroughly expected. Even so, it managed to be jarring. It’s not every day a country chooses a man accused of crimes against humanity for such a powerful post, with all signs pointing to Raisi acquiring …

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Putin’s Iran Visit Shows He Still Has Friends—and Options

Three days after U.S. President Joe Biden returned to Washington from a controversial visit to Saudi Arabia, Russian President Vladimir Putin landed in Tehran with a complex set of goals of his own. Much like Biden, who aimed to strengthen Washington’s ties in the region, Putin sought to bolster Russia’s …

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