Russia continues to position itself as a mediator in the US-Iran nuclear negotiations. Russia’s mediation of the US-Iran talks would be very unlikely to secure US interests given Russia’s alignment with Iran. US President Donald Trump stated on June 4 that Russian President Vladimir Putin offered to “participate” in the …
Read More »Iran nuclear crisis escalates as Ayatollah ‘calls Trump’s bluff’
Iran rejected a US demand to end uranium enrichment as nuclear talks hit a wall and military action could come next The supreme leader of Iran, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, has rejected a US call to end uranium enrichment as nuclear talks reach an impasse, raising the risk of military confrontation. …
Read More »Iran Update, May 30, 2025
The Islamic State of Iraq and Syria (ISIS) conducted two attacks in late May 2025 targeting transitional government forces in eastern Suwayda Province, demonstrating that ISIS retains a presence along ground lines of communication (GLOC) between the central Syrian desert and southern Syria.[1] ISIS fighters detonated improvised explosive devices (IEDs) …
Read More »Why US-Iran talks justify cautious optimism about a nuclear deal
Since 12 April, there have been five rounds of American-Iranian nuclear talks, held in Muscat and Rome under Omani auspices. These negotiations have yet to lead to a breakthrough. Yet, as fragile as they are, the talks appear to have some momentum. This offers a measure of cautious optimism that …
Read More »Yerevan Dialogue and Iran’s Partnership with Armenia
Executive Summary This report examines Iran’s strategic posture in the South Caucasus following Deputy Foreign Minister Saeed Khatibzadeh’s remarks at the Yerevan Dialogue 2025 forum. Highlighting Tehran’s stance on regional stability, his address stressed the importance of an Armenian-Azerbaijani peace agreement and the Armenia-Iran corridor’s geopolitical significance. The analysis provides …
Read More »Iran Update, May 29, 2025
We do not report in detail on war crimes because these activities are well-covered in Western media and do not directly affect the military operations we are assessing and forecasting. We utterly condemn violations of the laws of armed conflict and the Geneva Conventions and crimes against humanity even though …
Read More »Iran Update, May 28, 2025
The US Treasury lifted most sanctions on Syria on May 23. The US Treasury issued Syria General License (GL) 25 to provide “immediate sanctions relief” to Syria in accordance with US President Donald Trump’s May 13 order to lift all sanctions on Syria.[i] The removal of sanctions will allow the …
Read More »Spotlight on Iran and the Shiite Axis (May 21-28, 2025)
The Supreme Leader of Iran reiterated his call for the Muslim world to mobilize to stop“Israel’s crimes in the Gaza Strip” and declared that the Palestinian issue is the most importantin the Islamic world. The Iranian foreign minister noted that, at this stage, there are no relations between Iran andSyria, …
Read More »What Would Russia Like From a New Iran Nuclear Deal?
U.S. President Donald Trump may have torn up the previous nuclear deal between the United States and Iran during his first term in office, but he now seems serious about signing a new one. Washington has not only held several rounds of talks with the Iranians, but also dropped many …
Read More »Former Iranian Nuclear Chief Fereydoon Abbasi: If I Receive Orders To Build A Nuclear Bomb – I Will Do It; We Can Build A Small Nuclear Bomb That Can Destroy A Whole Military Base, And Is Not Classified As A WMD; The Zionists Have A Chance To Leave Now, Whoever Stays Should Be Eliminated
Fereydoon Abbasi, former head of the Atomic Energy Organization of Iran, discussed Iran potentially building and detonating a nuclear weapon in a May 26, 2025 interview on SNN.ir (Iran). He said that he has not yet received orders to build a nuclear bomb – but if he does, he will …
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