Si la hausse du baril se poursuit & qu’Ormuz reste fermé, Wall Street & consorts forceront la Maison Blanche à battre en retraite pour éviter l’effondrement de l’économie capitaliste mondiale. Trump confronté au “cauchemar de son isolement” et se berce d’illusions avec “l’IA”… Les porte-avions prennent la fuite, Dubaï ferme …
Read More »After the Assassination of Khamenei: Scenarios for the Third Supreme Leader
The assassination of Iran’s Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei represents a pivotal moment in the history of Iran. It opens a complex phase of political transition in light of the U.S.-Israeli war on Iran, mounting internal pressure, and the intensifying competition between the reformists and hardliners. The succession of the Supreme …
Read More »The War in Iran: Operational Progress, but Challenges Remain
The war in Iran is currently in a phase in which the military trajectory is relatively positive: the United States is steadily destroying Iran’s ability to use its most essential tool in the war — drone and missile attacks — which in turn underpin the entire Iranian strategy. Iran has …
Read More »Trump’s Iran War Ending Xi Jinping’s ‘China Dream’
Xi has been supremely confident that China will dominate the rest of the century… “Change is coming that hasn’t happened in 100 years,” the Chinese leader told Vladimir Putin after their 40th in-person chat, in Moscow in March 2023. “And we are driving this change together.” Many in Washington and …
Read More »Rising Lion’s Air Offensive: Part I – Foreign Policy Research Institute
Following the 12-day war in late June 2025, the Foreign Policy Research Institute (FPRI) immediately began a project to understand how the region has changed and what the military action could mean for future combat. The project and its contributors believed that war would resume and that the pause in …
Read More »Oman Is Under Fire From an Iranian Regime It Sought To Befriend
Even as his country was under threat from Iran, Oman’s ruler congratulated the Islamic Republic’s new supreme leader, Mojtaba Khamenei, on his appointment, expressing his “best wishes for success in assuming his leadership responsibilities.” Less than 48 hours later, Iranian drones struck Oman’s Salalah Port, hitting the fuel tanks. On …
Read More »Iran-backed Iraqi militias claim downing of US aircraft, US says not due to ‘hostile fire’
Iraqi militias loyal to the Iranian regime claimed that they shot down a US Air Force KC-135 Stratotanker over western Iraq on March 12. The US military has confirmed that the tanker crashed but stated that it was not brought down via “hostile fire.” The aircraft was used to refuel …
Read More »Existential Attrition: Iran’s Closure of the Strait of Hormuz
With each day of glorified actions against Iran, with each cloudy press session claiming supreme success through sheer force, the Trump administration is struggling to keep up appearances. Through an approach of existential attrition, the clerical regime in Tehran is now causing shocks and tingles in the global market, striking …
Read More »Une déflagration générale imminente ?
L’Axe de la Résistance a resserré l’étau. Le Yémen à “l’heure zéro”, la CIA traquée par les Irakiens, l’offensive “Al-Asf al-Ma’kul” du Hezbollah & l’Iran maintient le contrôle sur le détroit d’Ormuz. Le Yémen proclame “l’heure zéro” — L’armada américaine (Marines et bombardiers) se prépare pour “la grande frappe”, et …
Read More »Iran Update Evening Special Report, March 13, 2026
NOTE: ISW-CTP will not publish morning updates covering the war with Iran on March 14 and 15. ISW-CTP will publish threads on its social media channels in the morning on these days that cover the latest developments in the war and include relevant maps. CORRECTION: ISW-CTP removed a sentence that …
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