Middle Orient

Hezbollah deputy says MidEast conflict could expand to complete confrontation: Report

Lebanese militia Hezbollah will step up attacks on bordering Israeli areas and US military sites in the Middle East up to a “complete confrontation” if Israel continues its offensive in the Gaza Strip, Naim Qassem, the group’s deputy secretary general, said in an interview with NBC News. “Hezbollah participates [in …

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What the War in Gaza Means for Saudi Arabia

Israeli-Saudi Normalization Is on Hold—but Not off the Table Hamas is going to be able to claim very few victories in its war with Israel, but one that it has already notched is an abrupt halt in the momentum toward a U.S.-brokered deal between Israel and Saudi Arabia. The Israeli-Saudi …

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There Might Be No Day After in Gaza

Summary:As the war continues, deterioration at the level of governance, security, and public order will likely be deepened by the absence of a political horizon, diplomatic process, or future prospects. Initial reactions to Hamas’s October 7 bloody attack on Israelis and Israel’s declaration of war focused on the short term: …

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A Conspiracy of Silence

As Israel speaks openly about the ethnic cleansing of Gaza’s Palestinians, Western countries are nowhere to be seen or heard. Israel has made great efforts over the decades to redefine its ethnic cleansing of the Arab population of Palestine in 1948 as being a consequence of the Arabs’ voluntary departure …

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How Gaza Upset Regional Dynamics

Hamas’s surprise attack on October 7 upended three major developments that had been taking place in the Middle East. Hamas’s surprise attack against Israeli towns around Gaza on October 7 upended several dynamics that had increasingly defined regional politics in recent years. The first and most obvious one was the …

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The Makings of a Disaster

Plenty of factors could expand the conflict in Gaza, which is why a ceasefire is now needed to avoid the worst. Hamas’s operational success on October 7 has placed Iran, and with it Hezbollah, between a rock and a hard place as they try to calibrate their response to the …

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ISIS Isn’t Back. It Never Went Away

At its height half a decade ago, the Islamic State was among the most feared armed organizations in the world. The infamously brutal group had at one point captured and established governance of more than a third of Iraq and large swaths of Syria. But that shocking, sudden rise to …

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Russia Is Getting More Than It Bargained For in Libya and Syria

Is Russia’s lucky streak in Syria and Libya finally running out? The Kremlin has gambled big on proxy warfare in both countries, deploying thousands of private military contractors with the so-called Wagner Group to back its favorite strongmen. But after a recent run of misfortunes for Syria’s president, Bashar al-Assad, …

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Turkey Is Playing With Fire in Syria—Again

While the war in Syria has receded from the international spotlight, residents in the country’s northeast are bracing for a new wave of armed conflict. Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan has for months threatened to launch a military invasion of the region to push back Syrian Kurdish fighters and create …

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Israel-Hamas war: there is an important difference between a humanitarian pause and a ceasefire

The British Labour Party leader, Keir Starmer, has come under fire from members of his own party for refusing to call for a ceasefire in the Hamas-Israel war, instead pushing for a humanitarian pause in the conflict. As a result, 50 Labour councillors have quit the party. The controversy raises …

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