The December 2020 Moroccan-Israeli normalization deal has evolved from a vehicle enabling Morocco to gain long-sought U.S. recognition of its claims on Western Sahara to a broader strategic partnership with Israel. Geopolitically, the relationship provides clear benefits to both sides: for Morocco overt access to Israeli security and military cooperation, …
Read More »ISIS is back in the open in southern Syria
On Oct. 31, local units previously affiliated with the Free Syrian Army (FSA) launched a large-scale military operation against the al-Hafo-Harfoush group in the southern Syrian city of Daraa al-Balad. The units responsible for carrying out the operation in the Tariq al-Sad and al-Mukhayyam neighborhoods had chosen to remain in …
Read More »Russia And Iran Plan To Open Trade Via The Caspian Sea – OpEd
In a move that reflects both the increasing ties between Moscow and Tehran and the difficulties both countries have in shipping via the Caucasus land bridge given instability and political changes there, the two governments have announced plans to open trade on the Caspian Sea between Astrakhan in Russia and …
Read More »The risks and rewards of Erdogan’s next military operation
Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan has signaled his intent to soon launch the ground phase of Operation Claw-Sword, a military operation designed to clear areas along Turkey’s southern borders of fighters from affiliates of the Kurdistan Workers’ Party or PKK, which the United States lists as a terrorist organization. A …
Read More »Killed Islamic State Leader Had Previous Run-In With US
The United States was able to quickly confirm the death of the Islamic State’s leader in southern Syria this past October because it had his DNA and other biometric data on file from an encounter with him from long before he took the helm of the terror group. U.S. officials …
Read More »Turkiye Steps up Attacks on Kurds Along the Border
Turkiye has been attacking Kurdish groups in Syria and Iraq in response to a November 13 terrorist attack in central Istanbul. Ankara is threatening to launch a ground operation to widen the buffer zone along its border with Syria.The Turkish offensives are increasing strains with Washington, which is allied with …
Read More »Turkey Briefing
As actors involved have notably toned down their objections to Turkey’s potential ground offensive in northern Syria, the ball seems to be in Russia’s court, but how can Ankara convince Moscow to give it a green light?
Read More »Deteriorated Situations
Türkiye Govt blamed Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK) and Syrian affiliate for deadly Istanbul bombing that killed six, launching strikes in Syria and Iraq and threatening new ground operations. Govt attributed Istanbul attack to PKK and Syrian affiliate People’s Protection Units (YPG). In first street bombing targeting civilians since 2017, explosion …
Read More »Conflict Risk Alerts
Yemen Back-channel talks between Huthis and Saudi Arabia signalled deal could be reached outside stalled UN process, while Huthis attacked energy infrastructure, raising risks of front-line and regional escalation. Huthis and Riyadh intensified back-channel negotiations away from UN process. As UN efforts to resurrect truce remained deadlocked, Huthis and Saudi …
Read More »US hits Hezbollah accountants with terrorism sanctions
The Biden administration on Thursday slapped terrorism sanctions on two accountants and two companies in Lebanon for providing the militant group Hezbollah with financial services. The Treasury Department announced it would also impose sanctions on a third person for assisting Hezbollah, a U.S.-designated “foreign terrorist organization,” with weapons acquisitions. The …
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