Recent Posts

Who will win a post-heroic war? Neither side is prepared to fight

Neither the West not its enemies are prepared to fight. Some 30 years ago, I coined the phrase “post-heroic warfare” to acknowledge a new phenomenon: the very sharp reduction in the tolerance of war casualties. My starting point was President Clinton’s 1993 decision to abandon Somalia after 18 American soldiers …

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Bruits de guerre et logique géopolitique

Le monde est confronté au danger d’une grande guerre. Pour comprendre l’ampleur de cette menace, il faut aller au-delà des nouvelles en provenance d’Ukraine. Il faut aussi, d’une part, essayer d’apprécier de manière équilibrée le facteur variable de la volonté humaine dans la gestion des crises internationales et, d’autre part, …

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How Likely Is It That The US Replaces Zelensky In The First Half Of Next Year?

Zelensky’s only use right now is to legitimize radical policies and he’ll then be cast aside once he’s done what’s needed of him, though it’s unclear when that’ll be since everything depends on whether NATO conventionally intervenes in Ukraine. President Putin shared his view during a press conference in Hanoi …

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