Stalin secured what is now Kaliningrad so that Moscow would have an unsinkable aircraft carrier on the Baltic Sea. Then, after the end of the Cold War, the non-contiguous region of the Russian Federation was transformed into a place for economic exchange among Russia and its neighbors with security issues …

Amid the Russian invasion of Ukraine, Ankara’s foreign policy is set to undergo major changes. Being the most valuable ally the West has in the region, without Turkey’s support any Western strategy will fall short of achieving concrete results in stopping Russia in the long-term. Turkey’s foreign policy in the …

As the war in Ukraine unfolds, global uncertainty has surged, according to the latest reading of the World Uncertainty Index—a quarterly measure across 143 countries. This increase is a bad sign for growth. Our research finds that such increases foreshadow significant output declines. Based on our estimates, the rise in …