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April 17, 2022 Eurasia, Middle Orient
A ceasefire and a restructuring of the Yemen government suggest that Saudi Crown Prince Mohammad bin Salman (MBS) is looking for an off-ramp for the conflict. Houthi missile attacks on the Kingdom and the UAE, coupled with strains in U.S. relations with the two Gulf states, may have shifted MBS’ …
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April 17, 2022 Eurasia
In the wake of Russia’s unprovoked invasion of Ukraine, Western countries have expelled hundreds of Russian diplomats to hinder Russian intelligence efforts. Most countries use some diplomatic postings for intelligence purposes, though the scale of Russia’s efforts is massive, and there will be significant consequences to having its personnel evicted …
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April 17, 2022 Eurasia
The far Right does not command a majority in France. But Macron’s arrogance and elitism, plus divisions on the Left, could hand it a victory. On the face of it, Sunday’s results look like a carbon copy of 2017. Emmanuel Macron, the incumbent president, came first with 28%, followed by …
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April 17, 2022 Eurasia
The special operation in Ukraine was conceived by Putin and his entourage as a way to turn the political situation around. The Kremlin strategists weren’t the least bit interested in the fate of the people in Lugansk and Donetsk, or even in the future of Ukraine. At a historical impasse, …
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April 17, 2022 Eurasia
In my view it is best to understand the Ukraine Crisis as a two-level war with regional and global implications. The surprising strength of Ukrainian resistance has dramatized the magnitude of Moscow’s miscalculation in having anticipating quickly subduing resisting to its aggression and intended occupation. Russia has already been defeated …
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April 17, 2022 Africa
Amid new tensions, can diplomacy unstick a long-stalled peace process with Morocco and Algeria? After years of stagnation in the conflict over the Western Sahara, the Russian war on Ukraine and other recent events could create openings to advance long-stalled Western Sahara peace efforts. Unprecedented parallel visits by America’s top …
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April 17, 2022 Africa
While some see the chance to bolster the continent’s energy markets, others double-down on ties with Moscow. As Russia’s war in Ukraine advances into its second month, the conflict’s effects continue to ripple across the world. In Africa, the conflict is upending long-term trends across the continent and eliciting mixed …
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April 17, 2022 Eurasia, South East Asia
Outreach to pro-democracy forces appears over as Beijing expects the war in Ukraine to curb Russian backing for the generals. After a year of tentative ties with Myanmar’s democratic opposition, China this month dropped all pretension of hedging its bets and ramped up support for the military regime. Beijing framed …
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April 17, 2022 Eurasia, Pakistan, South East Asia
The country’s political crisis may have abated, but the road ahead is littered with challenges for the next government. After a month of political crisis in Islamabad, Pakistan’s united opposition parties successfully removed Prime Minister Imran Khan in a vote of no confidence on April 10 and then on April …
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April 17, 2022 Eurasia, South East Asia
Its leaders clearly believe China’s contradictory stance offers it the best chance of protecting Chinese interests and finding opportunity in this crisis. Mao Zedong was fond of quoting a line from a Han Dynasty historian: “Things that oppose each other also complement each other.” Since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, China …
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