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Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, March 16, 2026

Toplines Continued Ukrainian advances in Dnipropetrovsk Oblast are likely constraining Russian offensive operations in the Oleksandrivka direction and may soon threaten Russian offensive operations in the Hulyaipole direction. Ukrainian forces have reportedly liberated more than 400 square kilometers in the Oleksandrivka and Hulyaipole directions from late January 2026 to about …

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Letter from Munich: Militarism in a Post-American World

On the sidelines of the Munich Security Conference, anxiety over a world in crisis. Over the weekend of Valentine’s Day, the United States was marching toward war with Iran and grappling with a partial government shutdown that impacted the Department of Homeland Security. Meanwhile, the Trump administration was making light …

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Defeating Iran’s Strategy: Energy Security and the “Abraham Shield”

Tehran is targeting the soft underbelly of the U.S.-Israeli campaign—the oil sector and vulnerable Middle Eastern states—but allied officials can counter this strategy by taking concerted steps to bolster their regional partners, stabilize oil markets, and suppress the regime’s military capabilities. Two strategies are currently competing in the Iran war. …

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