July, 2026

• 4 July

  Iran Update Special Report, June 30, 2026

  Key Takeaways Iranian officials are simultaneously employing diplomatic outreach and military coercion to pressure regional states to support a new “regional security mechanism,” likely to advance Iran’s long-standing objective of expelling the United States from the Middle East. Iran is likely using this proposed regional security mechanism to encourage Gulf …

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• 4 July

  Inside Rubicon: The Structure of Russia’s Elite Drone Center

  

  Officially formed in August 2024 by Russian Defense Minister Andrey Belousov, the “Rubicon” Center was created to centralize and scale Russia’s previously fractured unmanned technology initiatives (aerial, ground, and naval) under a unified umbrella responsible for research, procurement, training, and operational deployment. To prevent logistical bottlenecks and operate more independently …

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• 4 July

  Putin’s Crimea Trap: 5 Scenarios

  

  From a jewel in Vladimir Putin’s imperial crown to a thorn in his side, the 2014 conquest of Crimea is coming back to haunt him as Russia’s war in Ukraine falters. Russian-installed authorities in Crimea declared an “emergency situation” on June 26, after Ukrainian attacks helped produce fuel shortages, power …

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• 4 July

  Spotlight on Terrorism: Hezbollah and Lebanon (June 22-29, 2026)

  

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• 4 July

  14 Points on the 14 Points: Assessing the Israel-Lebanon Framework Agreement

  

  This landmark document offers a once-in-a-generation opportunity to build real peace between Beirut and Jerusalem, but progress needs to be swift and visible given the threat of violent opposition from Iran and its local allies. After a rocky start to their fifth round of negotiations and a delay of several …

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• 4 July

  Between Peace and War: What the Iran-Trump Agreement Means for Russia

  

  The current interim situation between peace and war suits Moscow quite well. On the one hand, continued instability in the Persian Gulf prevents oil prices from falling. On the other hand, the conflict is not escalating into a full-scale war that could threaten other Russian interests. The prospect of an …

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• 4 July

  Why Siccing Syria’s Army on Hezbollah Is So Dangerous

  

  The potential upsides of implementing the Trump administration’s poorly conceived idea are negligible at best, while the downsides would be legion, including further damage to Middle East stability and American interests. From the Gaza Riviera to the promised annexation of Greenland to the alienation of India, to neutrality in Ukraine—and …

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• 4 July

  Moscow And The Middle East

  

  No matter when and how the war in Ukraine ultimately ends, an aggressive Russia will remain a challenge for the United States and the broader West. In December 2025, NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte said as much in his speech before the Munich Security Conference. “We are Russia’s next target,” …

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• 4 July

  New Syria, Old Lebanon: Absence of the State

  

  Any move by the United States to make good on Trump’s suggestion that Washington persuade Damascus to confront Hezbollah militarily would have catastrophic consequences. On June 16, 2026, during a meeting with Qatar’s ruling emir on the sidelines of the Group of 7 summit in France, U.S. President Donald Trump …

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• 4 July

  Europe Goes Its Own Way: Drifting From America, the Continent Is Rearming and Reordering Itself

  

  Europeans have been humiliated, disparaged, and sidelined since U.S. President Donald Trump returned to office in 2025. Indeed, it is no exaggeration to say that Europe has become the president’s favorite punching bag. The continent is, his administration believes, militarily emaciated, economically irrelevant, politically unfit, and culturally doomed to civilizational …

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