October, 2026

• 11 October

  Spotlight on Iran and the Shiite Axis

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• 11 October

  Ukraine Disrupts Russia’s Donetsk Offensive

  

  Executive Summary Ukrainian forces have defeated the 2026 Russian campaign to seize Donetsk Oblast. Russian forces intended to conduct a deep encirclement of the entire Fortress Belt from the Lyman direction in the north and the Dobropillya direction in the southwest, linking up near Barvinkove, Kharkiv Oblast. This wide encirclement …

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• 11 October

  Why is Israel maneuvering to shift the Middle East conflagration to Africa?

  

  From David Ben-Gurion—the architect of a state whose foundations remain a subject of debate—to Benjamin Netanyahu, a master of maintaining constant tension, the “periphery doctrine” has remained a cornerstone of Israeli foreign policy. Its essence lies in forging alliances with states that surround hostile neighbors. Israeli authorities operate on the …

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• 11 October

  A New Reality Emerging in Polish-Ukrainian Relations

  Clouds gathered again over Polish-Ukrainian relations in the spring and summer of 2026. After a Ukrainian Armed Forces unit was named after the “heroes of the Ukrainian Insurgent Armyi,” Polish President Karol Nawrocki stripped his Ukrainian counterpart, Volodymyr Zelensky, of the Order of the White Eagle. In response, Ukrainian politicians, …

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• 11 October

  International Burke Institute: The Academic Façade of a Russian Influence Operation

  

  A think tank that presents itself as Israeli is, according to OpenAI and Meta, part of a Russian influence operation. Its sovereignty index and several of its studies have made their way into reputable media outlets and academic texts. Leaked documents show that the Moscow-based propaganda firm Social Design Agency …

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• 11 October

  The Islamic State in Iraq After the U.S. Withdrawal

  

  To prevent the type of jihadist resurgence seen after past U.S. military departures, Washington will need to sustain counterterrorism support and close any political, security, and detention gaps that IS could exploit. On September 30, the last U.S. forces left Erbil Air Base in Iraq, ending the coalition mission against …

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• 11 October

  Iran Update, October 8, 2026

  

  Key Takeaways Forces aligned with the internationally recognized Yemeni government seized mountainous terrain that overlooks the Red Sea coastal plain on October 8, which could set favorable conditions for government-aligned forces to continue their counteroffensive and advance northward on the coastal plain.The Houthis are still capable of threatening Yemeni government …

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• 11 October

  Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, October 8, 2026

  

  Toplines Russian milbloggers recently acknowledged Ukrainian advances east of Slovyansk and Kramatorsk, possibly after months of battlefield shaping efforts similar to those which Ukrainian forces conducted in the months leading up to Operation Vivaldi in the Lyman direction. Russian milbloggers recently stated that Ukrainian forces liberated Ozerne, advanced east of …

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• 9 October

  Hamas’ Religious Ideology Reflected in the Planning and Execution of the Invasion and Massacre of October 7, 2023

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• 9 October

  Yemen’s Red Sea Gambit: A New Regional Power Struggle

  

  Operation Dawn has opened a new chapter in Yemen’s long-running war, bringing the strategically vital Bab al-Mandeb Strait back to the centre of the conflict, as Iran, the United States, Pakistan and Türkiye are increasingly drawn into a wider struggle. On 4th October, Yemeni President Rashad al-Alimi said in a …

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