May, 2026

• 18 May

  Trump Talk, Taiwan, & ‘Thucydides Trap’ Threat Triggers Market Mayhem Overnight

  Traders are waking this morning in the US to some relative market mayhem and questioning what came first – the oil spike or the geopolitical angst – to trigger these moves as it appears the market finally remembered there’s more going on in the world than trading ‘short compute’ demand …

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• 18 May

  Syria’s New Administration Foils Several Hezbollah Attacks

  

  Syria’s Interior Ministry has announced a new string of foiled Hezbollah assassination plots against high-level figures, attacks on minority figures and civilian targets, and weapons transfers, alleging the group and Iran-backed actors are seeking to undermine local security across the country. The nature of alleged Hezbollah network raids and planned …

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• 18 May

  Iran War Widens Gulf State Fissures

  

  The Iran war has widened differences between Saudi Arabia, which favors accommodation with Iran and Iran-backed regional actors, and the United Arab Emirates (UAE), which believes military confrontation with Iran and its allies can produce transformative change. Most of the Arab Gulf states are following Saudi Arabia’s lead by advocating …

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• 18 May

  Escalate to De-Escalate: Confusing Signals in the U.S.-Iran War

  

  Both Tehran and Washington are conducting military operations and threatening escalation to enhance their strategic leverage in negotiations to end the conflict. The brinkmanship renders a restart of major conflict as likely as an agreement that would resolve the major outstanding issues, including a full reopening of the Strait of …

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• 18 May

  Living in the shadow of Israel’s ‘yellow line’ in south Lebanon

  

  As Israel entrenches its occupation of south Lebanon behind a so-called ‘yellow line’, villages are being systematically erased, and residents displaced Qlayaa, Lebanon – The birds are still singing in south Lebanon, but they are faintly heard over a soundscape that – after two and a half years of war …

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• 18 May

  As the US leads diplomacy, its ally Israel wreaks havoc on southern Lebanon

  

  Despite Washington’s push to reach a broader peace arrangement between Beirut and Tel Aviv, it has apparently failed to restrain its ally, Israel. Hours after the US announced a 45-day extension to the Lebanon-Israel ceasefire, Israeli strikes once again pounded southern Lebanon. The US hosted two days of direct talks …

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• 18 May

  Iraqi militia commander charged in US for plotting attacks on Jewish targets for Iran

  

  US prosecutors say Mohammad Al-Saadi, a Kataeb Hezbollah member and IRGC operative, coordinated close to 20 recent attacks in Western countries claimed by Harakat Ashab al-Yamin al-Islamiya The US Justice Department on Friday announced the arrest of a senior Iraqi militia commander for terrorism against Jewish targets on behalf of …

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• 18 May

  Israeli strike targets Hamas military leader Izz al-Din al-Haddad, ‘last architect of Oct. 7’

  

  Security official indicates Gaza City airstrike eliminated terror group’s chief; former hostages hail reports of death of the man responsible for their abduction and captivity Israel said that it had targeted Izz al-Din al-Haddad, the Hamas leader in the Gaza Strip and the head of the terror group’s military wing, …

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• 18 May

  Europe Forgot Geography: How NATO Turned Russia from a Neighbour into a Permanent Enemy

  

  Europe’s greatest strategic failure was not that it misread Russia. It was that it forgot geography. Russia is not some sort of theoretical adversary conjured up by this paper. Russia is Europe’s permanent neighbour. It is a continental, cultural, energy, military and civilizational fact. Russia cannot be sanctioned out of …

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• 15 May

  Iran allows Chinese ships to pass Hormuz as Trump-Xi meet

  

  China-linked ships were permitted through the Strait of Hormuz by Iranian forces as Trump and Xi held what the US president described as “extremely positive”. Iranian media reported that Tehran allowed Chinese vessels to pass through the Strait of Hormuz as US President Donald Trump praised “extremely positive” talks with …

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