July, 2023

• 12 July

  After Prigozhin’s Mutiny: Russia’s Elites Wait For The Fallout – Analysis

  

  Wagner mercenary group leader Yevgeny Prigozhin has reportedly entered exile in Belarus following an aborted mutiny that challenged Russia’s military command, and rattled the Kremlin. But, despite the efforts of President Vladimir Putin and his administration to project an air of confidence and stability, the fallout from the Wagner rebellion …

  Read More »
• 12 July

  Russia Won’t Disintegrate Right After Putin Goes But Could Later If His Successors Mishandle Situation – OpEd

  

  Many analysts and politicians believe the greatest risk to the territorial integrity of the Russian Federation will come immediately after Vladimir Putin leaves the scene, Aleksandr Kynyev says; but that view is wrong: the real danger is likely to arise several years later if the transitional government misplays the situation. …

  Read More »
• 12 July

  What Does Lukashenka’s Role As Mediator In Russian Crisis Imply? – Analysis

  

  As the entire world watched in disbelief during the rapidly unfolding mutiny in Russia organized by Yevgeny Prigozhin and the Wagner Group on June 23 and 24, hardly anyone could imagine how its endgame would ultimately play out. In particular, the factor of Belarus seemed nowhere close to the conflict’s …

  Read More »
• 12 July

  Prigozhin’s Rebellion, Putin’s Fate, and Russia’s Future

  

  A Conversation With Stephen Kotkin Stephen Kotkin is a preeminent historian of Russia, a fellow at Stanford University’s Hoover Institution and Freeman Spogli Institute for International Studies, and the author of an acclaimed three-volume biography of Joseph Stalin (the third volume is forthcoming). Executive Editor Justin Vogt spoke with him …

  Read More »
• 12 July

  Normalising Relations with Syria: How Significant?

  

  The League of Arab States welcomed President Bashar al-Assad to its May summit, reinstating Syria’s membership, which it had suspended in 2011. The regime may look to have shrugged off the international opprobrium it earned for its brutality in repressing its opponents. But has it? When Arab countries admitted Syria …

  Read More »
• 12 July

  Assessing the Wagner Group’s Aborted Run on Moscow: What Comes Next?

  

  On 24 June, President Vladimir Putin faced his biggest challenge in over two decades at Russia’s helm: a mutiny by a mercenary group fighting alongside Russian forces in Ukraine. In this Q&A, Crisis Group experts explore the implications for Putin’s rule and Russian foreign policy. What happened? On 24 June, …

  Read More »
• 12 July

  Africa Or Death? Prigozhin Unlikely To Remain In Belarus For Long – Analysis

  

  Yevgeny Prigozhin, the 62-year-old former petty criminal-turned-restauranteur-billionaire warlord, has tackled many difficult assignments over the years as a Kremlin fixer: from propping up kleptocratic, authoritarian African rulers to sacking the Ukrainian city of Bakhmut. Now, following an aborted mutiny that challenged Russia’s military and handed President Vladimir Putin a major …

  Read More »
• 12 July

  Russian Military Game Of Thrones – Analysis

  

  Reshuffling of the Russian High Command and the Syria Failure Russia was prepared for a two-week special operation—a larger version of the 2014 invasion of Crimea that stunned the Western strategic community. Vladimir Putin, relying on Russian Chief of the General Staff Valery Gerasimov’s hybrid warfare tactics, expected to achieve …

  Read More »
• 12 July

  The Shadow Of Israel-Iran Hostility Amidst Diplomatic Détentes In Middle East – Analysis

  

  West Asia (the Middle East), known in contemporary history as a region in perpetual geopolitical flux has recently been home to some of the most significant diplomatic rapprochements. To begin with, the resumption of diplomatic ties between Saudi Arabia and Iran, brokered by China, normalised relations between Riyadh and Tehran— …

  Read More »
• 12 July

  Prigozhin Goes Into Exile But Leaves Behind A Can Of Worms – OpEd

  

  On Monday night, Russian President Vladimir Putin addressed the nation for the second time with the intention to bring the curtain down on the coup attempt by Wagner “founder” Yevgeny Prigozhin on June 23-24. It was quintessentially a self-congratulatory speech — well-deserved, perhaps. The speech had four principal elements. First, …

  Read More »