December, 2022

• 5 December

  Windfall: How Russia managed oil and gas income after invading Ukraine, and how it will have to make do with less

  

  IntroductionRussia’s economy has demonstrated impressive resilience in the face of Western sanctions, so far. Forecasts of gross domestic product (GDP) downturn have been consistently revised on the upside, and inflation, though high, is lower than in Italy and in line with global trends. This resilience stands in stark contrast to …

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• 5 December

  Experts react: What this wave of protests means for the future of the Chinese Communist Party

  

  They’re spreading like wildfire. The Chinese Communist Party’s (CCP) restrictive policies to limit COVID-19 have sparked a wave of protests from Xinjiang province to Beijing to Shanghai. And the protesters are looking for much more than an end to severe lockdowns; some are also pushing for Xi Jinping to step …

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• 5 December

  Killed Islamic State Leader Had Previous Run-In With US

  

  The United States was able to quickly confirm the death of the Islamic State’s leader in southern Syria this past October because it had his DNA and other biometric data on file from an encounter with him from long before he took the helm of the terror group. U.S. officials …

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• 5 December

  Fighting Starts to Escalate in Yemen

  

  The ceasefire between the Government of the Republic of Yemen and Houthi opposition forces formally expired in early October and continues to deteriorate. In November, the Houthis attacked government-controlled energy infrastructure targets, but they have thus far stopped short of resuming strikes on targets inside neighboring Saudi Arabia. U.N. officials …

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• 5 December

  Turkiye Steps up Attacks on Kurds Along the Border

  

  Turkiye has been attacking Kurdish groups in Syria and Iraq in response to a November 13 terrorist attack in central Istanbul. Ankara is threatening to launch a ground operation to widen the buffer zone along its border with Syria.The Turkish offensives are increasing strains with Washington, which is allied with …

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• 5 December

  In Bosnia, National Identity is a Political Tool, Subject to Change

  Anyone can declare their nationality as they see fit, but experts say some politicians in Bosnia are abusing the right for political gain. In October 2018, Zvonko Maric was elected as a deputy in the cantonal assembly of Sarajevo, one of 10 that make up the mainly Bosniak and Croat …

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• 5 December

  Kosovo’s Kurti Feels the Heat Over Licence Plates Crisis

  Since the licence plate crisis erupted, Kosovo’s Prime Minister has become sandwiched between criticism coming from all sides, both at home and abroad. Kosovo’s Prime Minister has endured an eventful few weeks, with criticism coming from all over the place, both home and abroad – until he agreed to withdraw …

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• 5 December

  On Bosnia, Croatia’s Milanovic Proves Failure of ‘Europeanisation’

  Zoran Milanovic’s offensive approach to neighbouring Bosnia and Herzegovina underscores the folly in the theory that EU membership would raise standards and encourage good neighbourly relations. When Croatia joined the European Union in 2013, the vast majority of academics and pundits in Bosnia and Herzegovina were enthusiastic; they believed that …

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• 5 December

  Turkey Briefing

  As actors involved have notably toned down their objections to Turkey’s potential ground offensive in northern Syria, the ball seems to be in Russia’s court, but how can Ankara convince Moscow to give it a green light?

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• 5 December

  Deteriorated Situations

  Türkiye Govt blamed Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK) and Syrian affiliate for deadly Istanbul bombing that killed six, launching strikes in Syria and Iraq and threatening new ground operations. Govt attributed Istanbul attack to PKK and Syrian affiliate People’s Protection Units (YPG). In first street bombing targeting civilians since 2017, explosion …

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