Recent Posts

Is Russia Losing Chechnya?

Russia’s strained wartime budget and the prospect of Ramzan Kadyrov’s succession make Chechnya’s future in Russia an open question. As if Russian President Vladimir Putin doesn’t have enough problems. The war with Ukraine is going badly, the consumer economy is in recession, and Ukrainian drones are targeting Russia’s capacity to …

Read More »

Syrian Government Offensive Forces Syrian Kurdish Group to Capitulate

The US-backed, Kurdish-dominated Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) capitulated to the Syrian government in a ceasefire agreement on January 18.[1] The government compelled the SDF to agree after a combination of government operations and tribal uprisings caused the SDF to withdraw from nearly half of its territory and most of the …

Read More »

Hezbollah’s Limited Options for Supporting Iran

Key Takeaways: Hezbollah’s changed military and political position in Lebanon means that it poses a different threat to Israel from the one it did before the October 7 War, and that any Hezbollah intervention would likely involve a new strategy using new, longer range and low-cost weapons. Israel’s 2024 campaign …

Read More »