Middle Orient

Iran’s New Trap vs. Trump’s Once-in-a-Lifetime Chance to Transform the Middle East

President Donald J. Trump, through a bold and unapologetic foreign policy, has emerged in just a few short months, as the only leader in recent history capable of reshaping the region and challenging Iran’s theocratic dictatorship with real consequences. His actions have already produced historic results… If Trump settles into …

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The Post-Iranian Middle East

America and Israel Can Build a New Regional Order Five decades ago, Israeli Prime Minister Menachem Begin established the principle that Israel would not allow any country that calls for its destruction to acquire nuclear weapons. And beginning on June 13, it made good on this pledge. Over nearly two …

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Turkey Navigates an Escalating Israel–Iran Rivalry

Viewing Turkey–Israel dynamics through a zero-sum lens risks fuelling strategic miscalculations and regional instability. The post–7 October realignment in the Middle East has recalibrated threat perceptions and strategic opportunities for both Turkey and Israel. The recent ‘12-Day War’ has further accelerated this shift. While both Turkey and Israel seek to …

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The Risk Of Civil War In Iran: Disunity, The Loss Of Agency – Analysis

The 12-day war between Israel and the Islamic Republic of Iran shattered not only the regime’s military credibility but also exposed the structural weaknesses within the Iranian opposition. While the regime lost much of its deterrent power and legitimacy, the opposition failed to translate this moment into political gain. It …

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Dismissal of Kurdish Concerns Threatens Syrian Unity Deal

“One Syria, One Army, One Government,” declared Damascus following a July 9 meeting between Syrian Interim President Ahmad al-Sharaa, U.S. envoy Tom Barrack, and Mazloum Abdi, the leader of the Kurdish-led Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF). The statement signals a firm rejection of the SDF’s calls for a decentralized and federal …

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PKK/YPG should quickly integrate to avoid issues with Türkiye, Syria: US envoy

U.S. Ambassador to Türkiye and Special Envoy for Syria has warned the PKK/YPG terrorist group will face problems with the Turkish and Syrian governments it does not act quickly on integration. “The U.S. will do its best to ensure a fair and proper decision is made. If they want to …

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Iran Update, July 9, 2025

Russia offered to help replenish Iran’s depleted uranium stockpile to support a peaceful nuclear program.[1] CTP-ISW previously assessed that Russia’s involvement in the US-Iran nuclear talks would be very unlikely to secure US interests due to Russia’s alignment with Iran.[2] Russian Foreign Affairs Minister Sergei Lavrov stated on July 8 …

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Can Israel Survive Without the West? The Answer Reveals Our Collective Power

The Israeli genocide in Gaza, along with the escalating regional wars it has ignited, has brought two chilling truths into our focus: first, Israel is deliberately and aggressively undermining the security and stability of the entire Middle East and, second, Israel is utterly incapable of surviving on its own. These …

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