Eurasia Press & News
The Trump administration’s signature foreign policy achievement was supposed to unify the Middle East behind a common goal of peace. Some say they paved the way for violence instead.
When President Donald Trump sought to tout the benefits of new agreements that normalized Arab countries’ relationships with Israel, the first tangible example he offered was that they would enshrine Muslims’ access to the Al-Aqsa Mosque in Jerusalem – the third holiest site in Islam that he described as “a special place for them” and one that also holds deep religious significance for Jews and Christians.
Speaking in the Oval Office and flanked by his top officials for all manner of Middle East policies, Trump made passing reference a few minutes later to “some very exciting things” that would benefit the Palestinian people. But he demurred when pressed by a reporter about Israeli plans at the time to ramp up new settlements for Jewish families in Palestinian territories, saying, “We’re talking to Israel about that right now, actually.”
Nine months later, these two elements of Trump’s attempts to sell the world on the merits of the so-called Abraham Accords – access to a revered holy site and better conditions for Palestinians – have come undone. Israel under Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has continued an aggressive policy of evicting Palestinians and annexing territory. And the tensions as a result of this pursuit reached a flashpoint over the weekend within the Al-Aqsa complex, when Israeli police officers violently confronted Palestinian teens. That kicked off escalating rounds of violence between the Israeli Defense Forces and local fighters, including from the Islamic militant group Hamas, that have continued this week at levels unseen since 2014, when they escalated to all-out war.
The U.S.-brokered Abraham Accords have not succeeded in their promise, as then-national security adviser Robert O’Brien said in the Oval Office at Trump’s behest, “in bringing peace to the Middle East,” essentially muzzling signatory countries from providing anything but token criticism of the violence. Rather, analysts say, the accords involving the United Arab Emirates, Bahrain, Morocco and Sudan have undercut Palestinians’ traditional supporters and empowered Israel, which has capitalized in recent months on a policy that appears to persist under the Biden administration of not imposing pressure on the Jewish state.
“It adds to a general sense of triumphalism in Israel, the sense of impunity: ‘People kept telling us we had to resolve the Palestinian issue. And now, clearly, we don’t,'” says Khaled Elgindy, director of the Palestinian-Israel Affairs Program at the Middle East Institute.
The current violence has become marked by rounds of devastating rocket attacks launched from Gaza against Israeli civilian populations, with the Netanyahu government retaliating with increasingly destructive air raids on Palestinian positions and deadly attacks on the group’s leaders. The death toll has soared into the dozens, with hundreds of injuries. Mobs of ultra-Orthodox Jews have clashed with Arabs in contested territories in incidents described by some, including Netanyahu himself, as “lynchings.”
The visceral scenes have put added pressure on the countries that have signed Abraham Accords with Israel, particularly the United Arab Emirates – the first country to do so – and Bahrain, driving a further wedge between the autocratic governments that agreed to the accords and their people, who increasingly voice support for their fellow Arabs engaged in the violent clashes.
Those familiar with regional security concerns say leaders in the region – particularly signatories to the Abraham Accords – now face new concerns that Israel’s actions will increase popular support for Hamas, which is partially backed by Iran, as Israeli airstrikes kill more civilians, including children.
“It opens up countries like the UAE and Bahrain to being characterized as ‘sell-outs’ for not standing up to Israel,” says Colin Clarke, director of policy and research at private intelligence firm The Soufan Group. “The optics are terrible. It can’t be a good look in any Arab country to be seen as supporting Netanyahu’s agenda right now.”
And he adds the situation will likely have immediate implications for some of the most potent security threats in the region.
“It also makes the UAE look weak and Iran look strong for standing up to Israel and for continued support to Hamas and other militant groups,” Clarke says.
As for the promises from the Trump administration, Clarke points to the most recent violence as evidence it did not succeed in some of its goals, particularly as the Biden administration continues to work toward a continuation of the Iran nuclear deal, known as the Joint Comprehensive Plan or Action, or JCPOA.
“Iran is not weakened by the Abraham Accords, is likely to get a new deal with the U.S. on the JCPOA, and is being lauded by the Arab world for its defense of Palestinians,” Clarke says.
So far, the Biden administration has largely taken a hands-off approach to the current violence in and around Israel, at least publicly. Spokespeople for the departments of State and Defense have offered few details of any behind-the-scenes efforts by American diplomats or military officials – if those overtures exist at all – deferring instead to platitudes about longstanding U.S. policy of supporting Israel’s “right to defend itself.”
Biden himself used that exact phrase to describe his call with Netanyahu on Wednesday. Perhaps the only U.S. effort to intervene are reports that its delegation to the U.N. has pushed back against the organization issuing statements publicly that condemn Israel’s actions.
Analysts say that rhetoric last year explaining the Abraham Accords as a potential outlet for new peace agreements for Palestinians now appears to have never represented serious efforts, particularly following the Trump administration’s full-throated defense of Israel and now under Biden, whose vocal support for Israel as a senator, vice president and now commander in chief has spanned decades.
“I don’t see anything that is dissuading Israel from acting in a certain way. To the contrary, the fact they have these agreements sends the message that the Arab States don’t care about Palestinians anymore, and they’re certainly not going to make a fuss,” Elgindy says.
And Arabs in the region see few signs that American promises of new opportunities for peace have any foundation in the realities they witness.
“It’s still an issue that resonates – not just because of the history of the Palestinian cause but also because of issues like Jerusalem,” Elgindy says. “The sight of Israeli forces raiding Al-Aqsa Mosque during the holy month of Ramadan was, I think, shocking to a lot of people.”
