Eurasia Press & News
In today’s summary:
- Russian troops are trying to simultaneously encircle Kurakhovo from the north and south and conduct frontal assaults on the city from the east
- Konstantin Mashovets: in the offensive zone from the Pokrovsk to the Bakhmut direction, the Russian Armed Forces are almost everywhere “bogged down in battles”
- A new wave of Russian offensive has begun in the Kursk region, without any confirmed successes so far
- DeepState — Russian military seized the most Ukrainian territory in October in 2024
- Propagandist Anastasia Kashevarova complains about the short “life span” of volunteers in the Russian Armed Forces – “from two weeks to a month”
- Ukrainian drone covered more than 1000 km and hit the Caspian Flotilla base in Dagestan
- People with HIV, hepatitis and tuberculosis, as well as drug addicts, are increasingly being sent to reinforce the Russian troops
- Biden administration plans to send Ukraine remaining military aid before Donald Trump’s inauguration
The situation at the front
The main events this week unfolded around Kurakhiv in the Donetsk region, where Russian troops attempted to simultaneously encircle the city from the north and south and storm it “head-on” from the east . The Russian Armed Forces made significant advances along the northern bank of the reservoir north of Kurakhiv to Ilyinka and managed to gain a foothold in Sontsovka further northwest, threatening the city’s secondary supply lines. From the south, they managed to enter Antonovka (where they used direct-fire missiles from the Su-25, which indicates the weakness of Ukrainian air defense in this area). After capturing Maksimovka, the Russian Armed Forces were 12 km from the H15 highway, which is the main supply line to Kurakhiv. At the same time, “meat assaults” on the city from the east were unsuccessful .
Ukrainian military observer Konstantin Mashovets suggests that the new line of defense of the Ukrainian Armed Forces south of Kurakhovo will be built along the Sukhi Yaly River, where there are “natural barrier lines .” He believes that if the Ukrainian Armed Forces are able to hold the Zelenovka-Yantarnoye-Uspenovka-Ilyinka line, then near Kurakhovo, Russian troops are very likely to end up “in a meat grinder.”
To the north, the Russian Armed Forces expanded their control zone west of Selidovo . Despite significant losses ( 1 , 2 ), Russian forces managed to gain a foothold in Grigorovka and Novoalekseevka . In the Toretsk direction, the Ukrainian Armed Forces, on the contrary, are counterattacking in the area of Druzhba and Nelepovka . Also, a Russian military man, who runs the Telegram channel “Temny”, writes about successes in the Bakhmut direction . According to him, the Ukrainian defense is most vulnerable near Kurdyumovka. In addition, the Russian Armed Forces managed to advance near Stupochki and along the road from Ivanovskoye (before 2016 – Krasnoye).
Nevertheless, Ukrainian military observer Konstantin Mashovets does not rate highly ( 1 , 2 , 3 , 4 , 5 , 6 ) Russian successes in the so-called Konstantinovsky bridgehead, that is, in the offensive zone of the Russian Armed Forces from the Pokrovsk to Bakhmut directions. According to his assessment, in all areas in the specified operational area, the Russian command demonstrated an inability to advance at the required pace, essentially “getting bogged down in battles” for Chasov Yar in the Bakhmut direction and for the Toretsk agglomeration .
In the area of the Seversky salient, “meat assaults” continue with major losses , for which the Z-community blames the command of the local brigade and the General Staff . Other Z-channels expose the “anti-crisis” with a video of shelling of positions that were declared occupied by the Russian Armed Forces on September 1.
Meanwhile, another Russian offensive has begun in the Kursk region , which so far appears to be developing in the same way as the previous ones, that is, without any significant progress ( 1 , 2 ). This time, North Korean fighters, who have been distributed among Russian airborne and marine units, are expected to take part in the attacks. Meanwhile, residents of the Kursk region, forced to leave their homes, are protesting and complaining to the federal authorities ( 1 , 2 , 3 , 4 ), and in Moscow they are offering to arrange festive New Year’s photo sessions for them.
John Hardy, deputy director of the Russia program at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies, wrote a column for The Insider about the Ukrainian Armed Forces’ situation in Kursk Oblast. In it, he concludes that, despite the positive impact of the Kursk operation on the morale of Ukrainian society and the army, the success was not converted into permission to strike Russian territory with Western long-range high-precision weapons systems, nor was it possible to draw significant enemy forces away from other parts of the front . As a result, Kiev was faced with a difficult choice: to hold on to the captured bridgehead as a bargaining chip for potential negotiations at any cost, or to withdraw its units from there, plugging the gaps in other areas of the Ukrainian theater of operations .
According to DeepState , October was the most successful month for the Russian Armed Forces, which occupied a total of 490 km² of territory . However, these successes are achieved at the cost of the most significant losses of equipment since 2022 and the ongoing liquidation of non-staff units, in particular UAVs and communications, with the transfer of their personnel to the infantry. In addition, as The Insider wrote , the Russian Armed Forces are fraudulently recruiting people from Africa. The Ukrainian Armed Forces, in turn, are forced to transfer doctors and Air Force personnel, including air defense, to the front.
Konstantin Mashovets published a review ( 1 , 2 , 3 ) of the Russian offensive in 2024. He notes that the Russian Armed Forces have carried out a series of successful offensive operations in eastern Ukraine during this time and achieved significant tactical successes in several areas. In particular, this concerns the breakthrough to Kupyansk, the capture of Avdiivka and Ugledar, as well as the advance towards Kurakhovo and Konstantinovka.
However, the Kremlin’s main goal, as Mashovets recalls, is to defeat the Ukrainian Armed Forces and force Ukraine to capitulate . To this end, the Russian command has deployed significant strategic reserves and mobilized resources, planning to conduct a series of offensive operations that were supposed to develop into strategic successes. Despite achieving tactical breakthroughs, this goal has not been achieved.
Mutual shelling and sabotage
The Ukrainian Air Force Command reported ( 1 , 2 , 3 , 4 , 5 , 6 , 7 ) the shooting down of 587 Shahed and other unidentified types of drones over the week. Of these, 377 were shot down, and another 176 were “location lost” (including as a result of the work of electronic warfare systems ). In addition, the territory of Ukraine was attacked by 10 missiles of various types, 9 of which were intercepted.
The Telegram channel “Oko Gora ✙ News and Analytics” also publishes statistics on the use of aerial bombs. According to calculations for 31 days of October, the Russian Aerospace Forces used 3991 units (+18%). The average daily number of uses was 129 units (+15%). It is noted that the average number of aerial bomb launches at Ukrainian Armed Forces positions in the Kursk region is about 32 units.
During the week, the most severe consequences of the shelling were observed in Zaporizhia, where one strike killed six people and injured 23 more, and also hit a critical infrastructure facility. Another strike killed 10 people, 41 were injured. In Kharkov, after a missile strike using a SAM from the S-400 SAM system , a police colonel was killed and 46 more people were injured . Another strike partially destroyed an apartment building, injuring 25 people.
The Russian Defense Ministry reported ( 1 , 2 , 3 , 4 , 5 , 6 , 7 ) the interception of 85 Ukrainian aircraft-type UAVs over Russian territory. One of them, based on the A-22 light aircraft, covered more than 1,000 km and hit the Caspian Flotilla anchorage in the city of Kaspiysk in Dagestan . Satellite images that subsequently appeared did not reveal significant damage, but almost all the ships, including the carriers of the Kalibr missiles, had to be dispersed in the adjacent waters.
In addition, the Main Intelligence Directorate announced the destruction of the Saratov Oil Refinery 600 kilometers from the border. The local governor traditionally reported on the fall of debris from downed UAVs; no objective control data has been received yet.
Losses
The commander of the 5th Separate Motorized Rifle Brigade, Major General Pavel Klimenko, was killed in the combat zone . It was later revealed that he and a group of other soldiers on motorcycles were attacked by an FPV drone . The wounded general was taken to a hospital in Donetsk, where he died. Earlier, Klimenko’s subordinates tortured American volunteer Russell Bentley, call sign “Texas” , to death .
The Telegram channel “Oko Gora ✙ News and Analytics” publishes monthly statistics of those killed in the war on the Russian side in 2024, based on the calculations of the Ukrainian Telegram channel “Goryushko”. During the entire invasion, 79,090 people died (more than half of them in 2024 – 39,379 people).
Propagandist Anastasia Kashevarova draws attention to a post by the ANO “Women’s Front”, which helps “participants of the SVO and their families”, about the short life of a Russian stormtrooper on the front line – often “from two weeks to a month” . At the same time, one recruited soldier costs 6-12 million rubles, but the effectiveness of their actions “tends to zero”.
The Telegram channel “Spy Dossier” reports two successful uses of HIMARS in recent days. According to the channel, on October 30, in the area of Skadovsk in the Kherson region, an attack was carried out on the location of the 104th Airborne Assault Regiment of the 76th Airborne Assault Division, as a result of which 11 servicemen were killed and another 14 were wounded. On November 1, a crew of the S-300/S-400 air defense system came under a salvo of six ATACMS missiles (three were shot down) in the area of Mospyne in the Donetsk region. Two soldiers were killed, 12 were wounded, information about the damage to the equipment is being clarified.
Russian commanders are threatening to send 17 servicemen suffering from viral hepatitis C to the front lines, despite the threat to others and a direct ban on carriers of this disease participating in combat . The soldiers of the 1428th motorized rifle and 95th rifle regiments were denied access to the commission, after which they decided to record a video message and complain to the prosecutor’s office. The author of the channel “Vault 8. Shelter No. 8.” says that people with HIV, hepatitis and tuberculosis, as well as drug addicts, are increasingly being sent as reinforcements . He describes the current situation as “a direct violation of all conceivable standards of medical service.”
A court in Rostov-on-Don sentenced two contract soldiers, Stanislav Rau and Anton Sopov, to life imprisonment for the murder of nine residents of occupied Volnovakha . On the night of October 28, 2023, they entered the private home of the Kapkanets family and shot everyone inside. The soldiers’ victims were 53-year-old Eduard Kapkanets, his wife Tatyana, two adult sons with their wives, a nine-year-old granddaughter, a four-year-old grandson, and a distant relative. It is noted that both soldiers were armed with machine guns designed for silent shooting.
Fighterbomber reported the loss of a Ka-52 helicopter. The crew commander died, the navigator survived. A photo of the helicopter with a brief condolence was also published by the Telegram channel Aviahub⚪️🟠. The channel “Voevoda Broadcasts” of army aviation pilot Alexey Voevoda confirmed the information about the loss, adding that the surviving crew member ejected. According to him, this is already the seventh helicopter pilot to be saved in this way.
Analyst Naalsio updated the calculations of visually confirmed losses of equipment of the parties in the Pokrovsk direction. According to his data, in the period from October 18 to 31, the Russian Armed Forces lost at least 72 units of equipment here, the Ukrainian Armed Forces – at least 37 units.
Researcher Cyrus publishes statistics on the losses of logistics equipment of the Russian Armed Forces based on calculations by another researcher, under the nickname Andrew Perpetua. Among the notable trends is a decrease in the number of lost “Bukhankas” and Desertcross all-terrain vehicles (probably due to a decrease in their number).
Weapons and military equipment
Last week, another US military aid package was announced under the PDA , which, in addition to traditional ammunition for artillery, air defense and HIMARS, included Stryker armored personnel carriers – the total number of vehicles of this type delivered reached 400 units. Also this week, it became known about another Ukrainian unit armed with Bradley infantry fighting vehicles – these vehicles were equipped with one of the battalions of the 100th Separate Motorized Rifle Brigade. In addition, the US State Department previously allocated funding for 800 mobile air defense groups . Meanwhile, the Biden administration is concerned about spending the remaining $ 6 billion on military aid to Ukraine before Donald Trump takes office on January 20 .
The German government, in turn, will be able to allocate the promised €4 billion in military aid for 2025, despite the collapse of the ruling coalition and the lack of an adopted budget.
Also announced this week were the following military aid packages:
Canada to deliver first of promised NASAMS air defense systems to Ukraine by end of 2024
Australia to supply 14 military boats to Ukrainian Armed Forces
French company Thales will produce FZ123 unguided anti-drone missiles in Ukraine
Another anti-drone missile produced by Estonian Frankenburg Technologies has been handed over to the Ukrainian Armed Forces for testing
In addition, the Ukrainian military industry has increased the production of mortar shells to millions per year (although the quality of some of them does not stand up to criticism ). Also, in the first nine months of this year, Ukraine purchased twice as many drones as in the whole of 2023, and 94% of them were imported from China. The Ukrainian holding Metinvest began to equip not only Abrams tanks with anti-drone screens, but also Ukrainian-made Kozak-M1 armored vehicles .
The Russian military-industrial complex has supplied the troops with another batch of heavy flamethrower systems TOS-1A “Solntsepek”, protected by “mangals” and dynamic protection. Russian military companies continue to purchase Western equipment and even serve the needs of NATO countries’ security agencies, receiving information about the location of military bases. At the same time, after The Insider’s investigation, the government of the Republic of China (Taiwan) completely stopped exporting industrial machine tools to Russia. But the Russian military received North Korean machine guns “Type 73”, which have proven themselves well in various conflicts, and are also still supplied with shells from the DPRK (which is especially important in connection with the almost complete depletion of Soviet warehouse stocks), the quality of which leaves much to be desired .
The front-line craftsmen from the Russian Armed Forces, in turn, distinguished themselves with the Faramobil buggy based on the Zhiguli, the T-90 tank with bricks in the dynamic protection blocks, and the T-72B with additional protection made from pieces of rubber conveyor belt, reminiscent of roller blinds.
