«L’establishment politique et sécuritaire israélien», écrit Anna Barsky dans Ma’ariv, «surveille de près la situation dynamique dans l’arène américano-iranienne. Cependant, il n’y a pas de consensus … sur la direction dans laquelle Trump se dirige ; ni [même] si les États-Unis sont proches d’une décision – et si oui, quelle …
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États-Unis-Iran : leçons d’une guerre impossible
Lecture géostratégique et enseignements importants pour l’AES.I. La démonstration de force américaine : puissance affichée, vulnérabilités réelles Les États-Unis peuvent déployer une force écrasante (porte-avion, bombardiers B‑2, chasseurs F‑35/F‑22, milliers de soldats). Mais la puissance ne garantit ni la victoire stratégique ni la destruction d’un État préparé. Une armada impressionne …
Read More »L’Europe après l’érosion de l’OTAN – un projet d’ordre stratégique
Le débat sur la politique de sécurité en Europe a atteint un stade nouveau. Avec la contribution «If NATO Dies, Long Live NEATO» issus du Center for European Policy Analysis (CEPA), une esquisse cohérente d’un ordre de sécurité post-guerre pour l’ordre euro-atlantique est proposée pour la première fois. Non comme …
Read More »Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, February 4, 2026
Toplines US, Ukrainian, and Russian delegations continued trilateral talks in Abu Dhabi, United Arab Emirates (UAE) on February 4. Ukrainian National Security and Defense Council Secretary Rustem Umerov stated on February 4 that the trilateral talks were “meaningful and productive” and that the parties continued to work in separate groups …
Read More »Iran Update, February 4, 2026
Toplines Iran and the United States are expected to hold talks in Oman on February 6, despite the brief cancellation of the meeting on February 4.[1] Iran continues to show inflexibility toward addressing US demands, which reduces the likelihood that Iran and the United States will be able to reach …
Read More »Unifying Syria Without Reigniting War
Full Kurdish integration in Syria is one of the most important projects in the Middle East, but Washington must ensure it is accomplished without further violence, and without blowing the activities of various foreign players out of proportion. Following Hamas’ attack on Israel on 7 October 2023, Syria has become …
Read More »Execution of Saif al-Islam Gaddafi upends Libya’s fragile power balance
The death of the ICC-wanted heir removes a major obstacle to the country’s stalled elections, even as his supporters decry a ‘treacherous’ end for the man who once promised reform – and later, ‘rivers of blood’. Saif al-Islam Gaddafi, the son of Libya’s late longtime ruler, Muammar Gaddafi, was killed …
Read More »The End of the Middle East’s Oil Bonanza
The Middle East has finally arrived at the grim reckoning long barreling toward it: a ruinous collapse of oil revenues that renders government deficits utterly unsustainable. Among the wealthy Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) states, four are running persistent annual budget deficits that are eroding their sovereign wealth reserves and plunging …
Read More »Secretive Firms From U.K. to Singapore Win $200M in Tenders From Uzbek State Giant
Over the past three years, two U.K. companies with no prior record in the mining industry have won tens of millions of dollars in Uzbek state procurement contracts with a mining behemoth known as a “crown jewel” of Uzbekistan’s economy. One was owned, on paper, by a septuagenarian British bookkeeper …
Read More »Spotlight on Terrorism and the Israel-Palestinian Conflict
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