A failed military intervention. The genocidal killing of citizens. Economic isolation by the international community. The arrests of anti-war protestors at home and the shuttering of independent media. Any one of these factors could mark the end of an ordinary political leader. Yet Russian President Vladimir Putin has not only …
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Can Erdogan coax Assad into dialogue?
Hopeful that the Ukraine war will tip the scales to its favor in Syria, Turkey is taking escalatory steps on the ground on one hand and testing the diplomatic waters with Damascus on the other. The Ukraine war has thawed Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan’s chilly ties with his Western …
Read More »Erdogan plays to base with criticism of Tunisia
By slamming the dissolution of Tunisia’s parliament, Erdogan may have emboldened his ideological allies from the Ennahda party, but his criticism might backfire to further isolate political Islam. Non-interference in domestic affairs and ending support for the Muslim Brotherhood have been two major conditions that Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan …
Read More »To Change Putin’s Behavior, the West Needs a New Strategy
Although the response in Western capitals to Russia’s aggressive military posturing on its border with Ukraine has been couched in clear diplomacy-first terms, military contingency planning has stepped up a notch in recent weeks. The intent of these moves, at least judging from the rhetoric of U.S. and NATO leaders …
Read More »The Russia-Ukraine Crisis Has Removed All Doubt. We’re in a New Cold War
Russian President Vladimir Putin’s bellicose speech yesterday, in which he announced that Russia had recognized the independence of two separatist regions of Ukraine and would deploy military forces there as “peacekeepers,” suggests that after months of military posturing and diplomacy, a full-scale invasion may well be at hand. But while …
Read More »Russia’s ‘Return’ to Africa Is Less Than the Sum of Its Parts
Over the past several years, international policymakers, primarily in the West, as well as journalists and commentators have frequently called attention to Russia’s renewed interest in expanding its footprint in Africa. These discussions of “Russia’s return” to Africa are usually couched in a fearmongering, manichean framework of competition, ostensibly within …
Read More »Russia May Never Recover Its Status as an Energy Giant
In the aftermath of U.S. President Joe Biden’s announcement last week that he was banning Russian oil imports in the U.S., global markets delivered a stark message to Russia’s leading energy giants: No one wants to buy what they’re selling. No one, that is, other than India, which is the …
Read More »Afghanistan Will Put Russia’s Regional Ambitions to the Test
While the failure of the United States’ two-decade campaign to reshape Afghanistan was a source of no little schadenfreude in Moscow, the collapse of Ashraf Ghani’s U.S.-backed government has thrust Russia into a challenging position. Even as President Vladimir Putin confirmed that Russia has no intention of deploying troops to …
Read More »NATO Is Focusing on the Wrong Russian Threat in Eastern Europe
As NATO has focused its attention on Russia’s offensive military capabilities in Eastern Europe, an equally significant and, in practice, more problematic issue has been largely ignored: Russia’s preponderance of “anti-access, area-denial” capabilities in the borderlands between the Baltic and Black Seas. Is NATO focusing on the wrong Russian threat …
Read More »Russia’s New Nuclear Doctrine: Don’t Mess With Us—But Let’s Talk
For the first time ever, the Russian government has publicly released a document laying out the logic and principles underpinning its approach to nuclear deterrence. Formally titled “Fundamentals of Russian State Nuclear Deterrence Policy,” the report was approved by President Vladimir Putin and posted on the government’s official information web …
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