For Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman, religious reform has long been a question of when rather than if. Mr. Bin Salman’s potential embrace of religious, not just social and economic reform, could have far-reaching consequences for the role of religion in Saudi Arabia and religious soft power rivalry in …
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Don’t Give Poland a Pass
Warsaw’s Support for Ukraine Should Not Obscure Its Assault on Democracy at Home When Joe Biden campaigned for president, he called out the democratic backsliding that had taken place in eastern Europe on his predecessor’s watch. “You see what’s happened in everything from Belarus to Poland to Hungary, and the …
Read More »The Illusion of Great-Power Competition
Why Middle Powers—and Small Countries—Are Vital to U.S. Strategy It may be a confusing and unpredictable moment in global politics, but there is no shortage of frames and narratives that purport to explain or at least characterize the major developments. For many observers, Russian President Vladimir Putin’s invasion of Ukraine …
Read More »The contested Arash/Durra gas field: An opportunity for Persian Gulf energy diplomacy
The gas field dispute between Iran, Kuwait, and Saudi Arabia showcases a complex interplay of West Asian geopolitics and national pride, but it also offers Persian Gulf states a unique opportunity to resolve an important maritime conflict independent of external interference. The Persian Gulf is home to numerous joint gas …
Read More »Iran in the SCO: Gateway or gatekeeper to West Asia?
With Iran’s SCO veto, no other West Asian country can join the eastern security and economic alliance without Tehran’s say-so. This is a remarkable position of leverage for the Iranians, who have overnight gained access to a $6 trillion marketplace and military cooperation with Asia’s biggest powers. After a long-awaited …
Read More »Fractured fraternity: The troubled relationship between MbS and MbZ
Recent revelations have shattered the illusion of strong ties between Saudi Arabia and the UAE, with the latter emerging as a clear rival to Riyadh’s outsized regional and international ambitions. Over the past two years, the once formidable relationship between Saudi Arabia and the UAE has experienced a significant downturn. …
Read More »Self sabotage: Why is Russia excluding Iran in the South Caucasus?
Russia’s exclusion of Iran from critical ‘tables’ in the South Caucasus has been detrimental for both states, allowing the NATO-aligned Israeli-Turkish-Azerbaijani axis to undermine their national security interests and snatch the regional advantage. The shift in the South Caucasus’ balance of power after the 10 November, 2020 Nagorno-Karabakh ceasefire has …
Read More »Russo-Turkish Relations: The ‘Indivisible Security’ Principle Is No Longer Binding
I recall vividly the latest NATO Summit that took place in Vilnius and was given a lot of coverage on the Russian TV. As a result of digesting daily news I can instantly visualise a huge gathering of Western politicians, military officials and diplomats. Within that sizable assemblage one could …
Read More »Weaponisation of Food Goes Into High Gear
Way back in the 1970s, the far-seeing genius Henry Kissinger identified food (in addition to energy) as a major mechanism that could be used to subdue recalcitrant mankind: “Who controls the food supply controls the people; who controls the energy can control whole continents; who controls money can control the …
Read More »Global Sanctions Dashboard: Sanctions alone won’t stop the Wagner Group
Despite sanctions and efforts to curtail the Wagner Group’s illicit activity, the group has successfully evaded financial sanctions through a series of facilitators and front companies around the world. $5 billion: That’s how much the Wagner Group has made since 2017 mainly from mining, illicit gold trade, and forestry business …
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