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Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, May 1, 2026

Toplines Ukrainian forces struck Russian oil infrastructure in Krasnodar and Perm krais and Orenburg Oblast between April 29 and May 1, including a strike against the Tuapse Oil Refinery for the fourth time since April 1. The Ukrainian General Staff and Unmanned Systems Forces (USF) officials reported on May 1 …

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Lebanon’s Peace Without Paris: US and Israeli Strategies Reshape Diplomatic Dynamics and Raise Questions of Balance and Legitimacy

While negotiations proceed in Washington, France, despite its longstanding relationship with Lebanon, has been deliberately excluded. This exclusion underscores a US-Israeli preference for controlled mediation and raises concerns regarding the legitimacy and distribution of power in the process. The exclusion of France and the European Union from the 2026 Israel–Lebanon …

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The Iran War Shows the Limits of U.S. Power

If Washington cannot adapt to the ongoing transformations of a multipolar world, its superiority will become a liability. The Iran war is confronting the Middle East and the world with dramatic transformations. War realities are reshaping global supply chains and testing long-held alliances. They are also showing the limits of …

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Hungarian Elections: Ramifications for Central Europe

As the dust settles and the euphoria ebbs on the historic mid-April 2026 elections in Hungary, the consequences of Tisza’s resounding victory over Victor Orban’s Fidesz party will start to manifest to the north of Budapest, specifically in Poland, the Czech Republic, and Slovakia, the three other members of the …

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Russia’s Drone Line Experiment

The Russian military continued to experiment with improving its employment of uncrewed aerial systems (UAS) in support of its maneuver forces. Both Russian and Ukrainian forces face coordination challenges and internal debates regarding the “ownership” of different depths of the battlespace and the command-and-control relationship between independent drone units and …

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Iran Update Special Report, April 30, 2026

Key Takeaways Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei declared on April 30 that Iran will retain control over shipping through the Strait of Hormuz and maintain its nuclear and missile capabilities, which supports ISW-CTP’s assessment that the Iranian regime is unlikely to make meaningful concessions in its next proposal to the United …

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