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A new momentum: Recalibrating Germany’s foreign policy toward the Gulf monarchies

Germany faces the profound challenge of trying to diversify its energy supply while a destabilizing war rages on in Ukraine. Hence, the German government has entered into new energy partnerships with several Gulf monarchies — namely, Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, and Qatar. The Gulf monarchies should not only …

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The Gulf states: Beneficiaries of the Russia-Europe energy war?

The current energy war between Russia and Europe predated, but was markedly intensified by, Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in February 2022. The protagonists are deploying a range of energy weapons aimed at increasing the costs of escalation or remaining in Ukraine (for Russia) as well as of defying Russia’s actions …

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Eastern Mediterranean gas discoveries, progress, and what to watch in 2023

The challenge of developing export strategies for the offshore natural gas resources concentrated in the Eastern Mediterranean predates the Russo-Ukrainian war, which exploded in full fury in late February of last year. Yet over the course of 2022, Europe’s intensifying energy crisis created a new and more immediate incentive to …

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Orientalism Lives: The Assault on the State of Qatar

December 18 marked the end of the 2022 World Cup. The date, which coincided with Qatar’s national holiday was fitting to celebrate an event seen as the pinnacle of Qatar’s impressive economic development and growth strategy. Much of this economic development is credited to the visionary leadership of two men: …

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In-Depth Briefing #43: Tech-savvy terrorism

“The internet is an effective incubator of radicalisation and violent extremism, producing echo chambers wherein virtual social networks serve as a shield for radicalised individuals, denying them an opportunity to encounter contrary descriptions of reality.” – Colin P Clarke, Director of Research at The Soufan Group, explores the evolution of …

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IntelBrief: Wagner Group Recruiting Prisoners, Criminals, and Felons to Fill its Ranks

11-months into the war in Ukraine, significant Russian military casualties have forced Moscow to rely more heavily on the Wagner Group, a Kremlin-linked private military company. Amid battlefield attrition of his forces, Wagner head Prigozhin has lowered recruiting standards and is actively recruiting from Russian prisons. Prison recruitments will inevitably …

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IntelBrief: Solutions to the Yemen Conflict Will Remain Elusive in 2023

Yemen’s long-running civil war between the internationally recognized Republic of Yemen Government and the Iran-backed Houthi movement diminished in 2022, but a permanent solution will likely remain elusive in 2023. Two negotiating tracks – one led by U.N. mediators and a separate Oman-brokered Saudi Arabia-Houthi dialogue – have failed to …

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IntelBrief: Tensions with Iran Will Escalate in 2023

U.S. and allied policy toward Iran will grow even more hardline in 2023 as the various threats posed by Tehran have become more acute, particularly its alliance with Moscow. Long-stalled negotiations to revive the 2015 multilateral Iran nuclear agreement are unlikely to resume, and Iran will advance its nuclear program …

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Rise of New Centres of Power in Eurasia: Implications for Turkish Foreign Policy

The emergence of new centres of power in Eurasia has entailed a re-reading of Zbigniew Brzezinski’s book which drew an analogy between the Eurasian supercontinent and a grand chessboard. Following the global financial crisis of the last few years, countries like China, Russia and India have started to project greater …

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Nous menons la dernière guerre. Nous courons derrière

Les médias se font l’écho du fait que le système de production d’armements tourne à plein dans le monde aujourd’hui, en Occident en particulier. S’il est légitime pour la Russie de le faire, elle qui est en conflit officiel, ce l’est moins pour ses adversaires non encore cobelligérants, même si …

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