Insanity has often been defined as trying the same thing over and over and getting the same result. Case in point, Ukraine was seeking NATO membership to bolster its security. This membership would have come at the expense of Russian security, as Russian president Vladimir Putin made clear. To thwart …
Read More »Attacks Escalate Amid Baghdad’s Political Deadlock
Iran and the militias to which it provides backing and support have escalated attacks in an effort to influence the formation of a new national government in Iraq. Iraq’s Kurdish leaders are at odds over which faction will control Iraq’s presidency. Iraqi factions aligned with Iran have blocked efforts by …
Read More »Is MBS Looking for an Exit Ramp in Yemen?
A ceasefire and a restructuring of the Yemen government suggest that Saudi Crown Prince Mohammad bin Salman (MBS) is looking for an off-ramp for the conflict. Houthi missile attacks on the Kingdom and the UAE, coupled with strains in U.S. relations with the two Gulf states, may have shifted MBS’ …
Read More »Spy Games: Russian Intelligence Personnel Expelled from Western Embassies
In the wake of Russia’s unprovoked invasion of Ukraine, Western countries have expelled hundreds of Russian diplomats to hinder Russian intelligence efforts. Most countries use some diplomatic postings for intelligence purposes, though the scale of Russia’s efforts is massive, and there will be significant consequences to having its personnel evicted …
Read More »A Le Pen Presidency Was Not a Possibility Before. It is Now.
The far Right does not command a majority in France. But Macron’s arrogance and elitism, plus divisions on the Left, could hand it a victory. On the face of it, Sunday’s results look like a carbon copy of 2017. Emmanuel Macron, the incumbent president, came first with 28%, followed by …
Read More »The Blitzkrieg Failed. What’s Next?
The special operation in Ukraine was conceived by Putin and his entourage as a way to turn the political situation around. The Kremlin strategists weren’t the least bit interested in the fate of the people in Lugansk and Donetsk, or even in the future of Ukraine. At a historical impasse, …
Read More »Stop the Geopolitical War Now
In my view it is best to understand the Ukraine Crisis as a two-level war with regional and global implications. The surprising strength of Ukrainian resistance has dramatized the magnitude of Moscow’s miscalculation in having anticipating quickly subduing resisting to its aggression and intended occupation. Russia has already been defeated …
Read More »Ukraine Crisis Prompts China to Swing Behind Myanmar’s Junta
Outreach to pro-democracy forces appears over as Beijing expects the war in Ukraine to curb Russian backing for the generals. After a year of tentative ties with Myanmar’s democratic opposition, China this month dropped all pretension of hedging its bets and ramped up support for the military regime. Beijing framed …
Read More »What’s Next for Pakistan’s Politics After Ouster of Imran Khan?
The country’s political crisis may have abated, but the road ahead is littered with challenges for the next government. After a month of political crisis in Islamabad, Pakistan’s united opposition parties successfully removed Prime Minister Imran Khan in a vote of no confidence on April 10 and then on April …
Read More »China’s Ukraine Gambit: Beijing Plays Both Sides
Its leaders clearly believe China’s contradictory stance offers it the best chance of protecting Chinese interests and finding opportunity in this crisis. Mao Zedong was fond of quoting a line from a Han Dynasty historian: “Things that oppose each other also complement each other.” Since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, China …
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