Eurasia

Suspected sabotage by a Chinese vessel in the Baltic Sea speaks to a wider threat

Officially the Yi Peng 3 is just a bulk carrier, one of countless such ships carrying everything from grain to coal, aluminum, and fertilizer. But as she left Russia’s Baltic port of Ust-Luga last week, the Chinese-flagged ship may have had a rather different mission. Authorities and the open-source intelligence …

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ICC issues arrest warrants for Israel’s Netanyahu, Gallant and Hamas leader

Judges at the International Criminal Court have issued arrest warrants for Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and his former defence chief, as well as a Hamas leader, Ibrahim Al-Masri, for alleged war crimes and crimes against humanity, Reuters reported on Thursday afternoon. The move comes after the ICC prosecutor Karim …

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A political statement What open-source footage tells us about the new ballistic missile Russia launched at Ukraine’s Dnipro

This morning, Ukraine’s Air Force reported that Russia had launched an intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM) at infrastructure in the city of Dnipro. If confirmed, this would mark the first use of an ICBM since the war began. The report comes amid heightened tensions, as Ukraine has been bracing for a …

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‘We are prepared for any turn of events’ In a televised speech, Vladimir Putin claims a hypersonic missile attack on Ukraine and warns the West of more to come — Full transcript

In a televised national address on Thursday, Vladimir Putin informed Russians and the world that he ordered a ballistic missile strike on a weapons factory in Ukraine in retaliation for U.S. and U.K. authorization (and alleged operational support) for longer-range attacks against targets inside Russia by Kyiv using American and …

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Thunderbolt from the Skies: Putin’s Doomsday Weapon Puts NATO on Final Notice

This will be a major two part article on developing events a massive 5,600 words in size. The first (2,500 words) is free to the public and will cover my general geopolitical analysis, while the second is paywalled due to the sensitive nature of weapons systems discussions, amongst other reasons. …

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Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, November 19, 2024

Ukrainian forces have defended against Russia’s full-scale invasion for 1,000 days and continue to demonstrate incredible resilience against Russian aggression. Russia invaded Ukraine on February 24, 2022 under the incorrect assumption that Ukraine would fail to defend itself and that Russian forces would be able to seize Kyiv City and …

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Iran Update, November 19, 2024

Hamas and other unidentified Palestinian militias have formed a combined force to stop armed gangs from looting humanitarian aid, which indicates that Hamas has only limited control of the Gaza Strip.[1] It remains unclear if Hamas distributes the aid equitably after it recovers stolen aid. Reuters reported on November 19 …

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‘Humanitarian Catastrophe’: Turkish Strikes Leave 1 Million in Northeast Syria Without Electricity, Water

Latest Developments • Kurdish-Held Northeast Syria Faces Electricity, Water Crisis: Turkish strikes in northeast Syria have left more than 1 million people in northeast Syria without access to electricity and water, the BBC reported on November 19. Between October 2019 and January 2024, Turkey carried out more than 100 strikes …

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Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, November 18, 2024

Russian officials continued to use threatening rhetoric as part of efforts to deter the United States from publicly authorizing Ukraine’s use of US-provided ATACMS in limited strikes against Russian and North Korean military targets in Kursk Oblast. This US authorization, if officially confirmed, would notably be a mild response to …

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Iran Update, November 18, 2024

The continued looting of humanitarian aid trucks demonstrates that Hamas’ internal control remains limited and severely weakened. Armed groups looted 98 of 109 humanitarian aid trucks that entered the southern Gaza Strip via the Kerem Shalom border crossing on November 16.[1] It is unclear if these armed groups are affiliated …

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