Kavkaz

Conflict Trends Update

ARMENIA-AZERBAIJAN The deadliest fighting between Azerbaijan and Armenia since the Autumn 2020 six-week war erupted in mountainous areas of their state border on Tuesday. The clashes lasted for over three hours and killed at least nine soldiers from both sides. Russia brokered a ceasefire and proposed to discuss preventive mechanisms. …

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Karabakh’s Development Set To Transform The South Caucasus – OpEd

While no one is watching, the social and economic geography in the South Caucasus is continuing swiftly to evolve. Signal among these developments, indeed its driving force, is the rebuilding of the Karabakh region following the expulsion of occupying military forces from the Republic of Armenia, or under its direct …

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A Risky Role for Russian Peacekeepers in Nagorno-Karabakh

When Russian peacekeepers arrived in Nagorno-Karabakh as part of a ceasefire deal between Azerbaijan and Armenian, they found it empty, blanketed in a thick November fog. After 44 days of brutal war, most [people] had fled, not believing the fighting was over. A year later, the region’s main city of …

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Armenia And Turkey Lean Toward Rapprochement, But Constraints Linger – Analysis

Statements and actions indicate that Armenia and Turkey are interested in improving relations – possibly even opening their shared border, which would be a game-changer for the South Caucasus. However, Azerbaijan’s role in Turkey’s decision-making process regarding Armenia, along with outside players’ desire to protect their own interests in the …

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Erdogan asks Turkish Parliament to renew deployment to Azerbaijan

Turkey sent peacekeeping forces to Azerbaijan last year following the victory in the Nagorno-Karabakh war with Armenia. Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan asked parliament today to extend Turkey’s military presence in Azerbaijan. Erdogan requested that the deployment be extended for another year so that Turkish forces can continue monitoring the …

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A Geopolitical Reshuffle In South Caucasus – Analysis

One of its most important points in the trilateral statement signed by Armenia’s prime minister Nikol Pashinyan, Azerbaijan’s president Ilham Aliyev, and Russia’s president Vladimir Putin in Moscow on 10 November 2020—which established the ceasefire and capitulation of armed forces of the Republic of Armenia in the Second Karabakh War—is …

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Fears Of Russian Influence Haunt Abkhazia – Analysis

Geopolitics informs Russian attitude toward Abkhazia. It is both of benefit and curse for Abkhazian elites who aspire to a greater level of maneuverability not only from Tbilisi, but from Moscow as well. Russian investments might be beneficial economically, but they could be also laying the groundwork for a more …

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Iran-Azerbaijan Tensions Ensnare Regional Powers

Tensions between Iran and Azerbaijan are aggravating – and at times benefitting regional powers. Iran’s policy toward Azerbaijan has domestic implications for the former, because a large percentage of the Iranian population is of Azeri origin. Iran perceives that Azerbaijan’s alliances with regional adversaries, particularly Israel, pose a significant threat …

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Iran’s Defeat In The Second Nagorno-Karabakh War – Part I: Geopolitical And Economic Ramifications

The second Nagorno-Karabakh war (September-November 2020) in the southern Caucasus ended with Azerbaijan’s victory over Armenia, which had held the Nagorno-Karabakh area since the first war between the two countries (1991-94). Azerbaijan’s victory in the war has important geopolitical and economic ramifications for the southern Caucasus region and for the …

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Azerbaijan-Israel relations and Iran’s national security concerns

In 1991, Israel was one of the first countries to recognise the independence of the Republic of Azerbaijan. As a neighbour of Iran, Azerbaijan’s expanding relations with Israel have always been one of Tehran’s major security concerns. In the 1990s, 20 per cent of Azerbaijan’s territory was occupied by Armenian …

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