Middle Orient

Washington’s war with Iran may be unfolding thousands of miles away, but in Southeast Asia its political aftershocks are immediate and measurable. Energy shocks, disrupted trade routes, and deepening uncertainty about US leadership are quietly recalibrating regional alignments. For many governments in ASEAN, the war does not look like a …

While negotiations proceed in Washington, France, despite its longstanding relationship with Lebanon, has been deliberately excluded. This exclusion underscores a US-Israeli preference for controlled mediation and raises concerns regarding the legitimacy and distribution of power in the process. The exclusion of France and the European Union from the 2026 Israel–Lebanon …

On 14 April 2026, Giorgia Meloni delivered a decision that instantly disrupted the post-Cold War assumption of automatic alignment within the Western security architecture. A Sovereign Break in the Western Security Chain The move was not symbolic. It was structural. The sequence of events — escalation in Lebanon, suspension of …

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If Washington cannot adapt to the ongoing transformations of a multipolar world, its superiority will become a liability. The Iran war is confronting the Middle East and the world with dramatic transformations. War realities are reshaping global supply chains and testing long-held alliances. They are also showing the limits of …

Key Takeaways Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei declared on April 30 that Iran will retain control over shipping through the Strait of Hormuz and maintain its nuclear and missile capabilities, which supports ISW-CTP’s assessment that the Iranian regime is unlikely to make meaningful concessions in its next proposal to the United …

America Should End the War but Keep Up the Pressure When U.S. President Donald Trump announced that the United States was at war with Iran, he called on the country’s people to rise in revolt. “When we are finished, take over your government,” Trump said on February 28. “This will …

Consensus remains that oil market management is needed to avoid severe boom-bust cycles The UAE’s decision this week to leave the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries came as a surprise to many, although the move had been years in the making. What is different now is the context in …

Key Takeaways Iran is unlikely to make meaningful concessions in its next proposal to the United States, which is expected in the next several days. Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC) Major General Ahmad Vahidi, whose hardline position on negotiations the regime has adopted, appears unwilling to concede on Iranian control …

Hier, les Émirats arabes unis (EAU) ont annoncé leur intention de quitter l’Organisation des pays exportateurs de pétrole (OPEP). Il s’agit d’une rupture qui aura probablement de graves conséquences pour la prospérité des EAU. Il s’agit d’une décision à long terme qui était attendue depuis longtemps et qui est indépendante …