Middle Orient

Bottom Line Up Front Iran and its allies in the “Axis of Resistance” likely perceive recent Israeli attacks as an escalation designed to provoke a broader regional confrontation on Israel’s terms.Iran is likely to launch missiles and armed drones at Israel, aiming to cause extensive damage, in contrast to its …

Bottom Line up Front Hamas faces pivotal strategic choices as it chooses a replacement for Ismail Haniyeh, who was assassinated in Tehran last week, presumably by covert Israeli agents.Haniyeh’s successor will undoubtedly encounter friction from Hamas political and military leaders inside Gaza, as well as political competitors living outside the …

Today’s news round on Syria highlights the ongoing and escalating violence within the region. Syrian officials issued a stern warning to Israel over potential escalations following a deadly strike in Majdal Shams, resulting in the deaths of a dozen children and teenagers. Additionally, a truck bomb in Azaz killed 10 …

The recent attacks by “Tribal and Clan” forces on areas controlled by the SDF have reignited the debate about the nature and affiliations of these forces. Critics of the Autonomous Administration view these groups as Arab forces striving to liberate their territories from PKK control, denying any ties to Iran …

CTP-ISW continues to assess that Iran and its Axis of Resistance will likely conduct a coordinated strike targeting Israel in retaliation for the death of former Hamas Political Bureau head Ismail Haniyeh on July 31. Iranian Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei has continued to communicate that Iran will retaliate “forcefully” against …

Acting Iranian Foreign Minister Ali Bagheri Kani defended Iran’s impending retaliatory strike against Israel while signaling that Iran seeks to avoid a regional war during an Organization of Islamic Cooperation meeting in Jeddah, Saudi Arabia, on August 7.[i] Bagheri Kani argued that Iran “has no choice” but to exercise its …

Islamic religious leaders, politicians, and jihadi organizations in Afghanistan and Pakistan have reacted strongly to the July 31 assassination of Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh in Tehran, offering condolences, calling it a terrorist act, and accusing Israel and America of violating international law and eliminating their opponents. Islamic religious leaders from …

Following the July 31, 2024 assassination of Hamas political bureau head Isma’il Haniyeh, the Qatari government press, and especially the Al-Sharq daily, published many articles that praised him and glorified resistance, martyrdom, and jihad against Israel, while stressing that Haniyeh’s path of resistance is “the right path that must be …

Latest Developments The Secretary of Russia’s National Security Council, Sergei Shoigu, reportedly conveyed a personal message from Russian President Vladimir Putin to Iranian leaders while he was in Tehran on August 5. The message urged the regime to refrain from taking military action against Israel. According to an unnamed Iranian …

Latest Developments The United States charged a Pakistani national with a thwarted Iran-backed plot to assassinate American government officials, the U.S. Justice Department disclosed on August 6. The defendant, 46-year-old Asif Merchant, had hired purported hitmen who were actually undercover U.S. law enforcement officers, according to the U.S. complaint unsealed …