By returning to Russia despite imminent arrest, Alexey Navalny hoped to inspire Russians to reclaim the country from decades of authoritarian rule. By design, there is no political opposition to Putin’s rule, with any challenge to Russia’s current leadership stamped out through coercive force.

Similar to the trajectory followed by al-Qaeda a decade ago, the Islamic State is shifting focus from its core organization to regional affiliates. Even where Islamic State affiliates have been weakened, changing conflict dynamics could reenergize franchise groups at various points this year.

The recent killing of Islamic State’s top leader in Iraq should not be seen as a crippling sign for the terror group, which has in recent months received fresh recruits and increased its attacks in the country, says a senior Iraqi Kurdish military official.