Topped off by a curious ‘coup’ attempt in Russia, June was a fascinating month with new geopolitical economic developments, twists and turns on many fronts: As US President Biden wooed, wined and dined India’s Prime Minister Modi (who was once refused a visa to America), France’s Macron sought an invite …
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Why Azerbaijan May Find Itself a Victim of Its Own Success
Plentiful resources contribute to long-term success if channeled to the development of institutions, but Azerbaijan, like many other autocracies, is instead using them to burnish its image abroad and cement the status quo.Since the 2020 Nagorno-Karabakh war, news out of Azerbaijan has been an unending series of announcements about achievements …
Read More »Is Prigozhin’s Mutiny the Nail in the Coffin for Putin’s Golden Boy, Dyumin?
Putin’s former bodyguard and current Tula governor Alexei Dyumin is eternally tipped for a position in the federal government, yet is still waiting after seven years.Alexei Dyumin, a former bodyguard of Russian President Vladimir Putin and now governor of the Tula region, has been the subject of much discussion since …
Read More »The Death of Secret Intelligence? Think Again
While the Ukraine war has seen an explosion in the collection and distribution of open source intelligence, the work of secret intelligence agencies remains as important as ever. You’d be forgiven for thinking that the world of secret intelligence is no more. Ever since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in February …
Read More »Ukraine–NATO Relations: Closer Partnership or Membership?
Kyiv’s bid to join NATO would bolster both Ukrainian and European security. The future of Ukraine–NATO relations is once again the number-one topic on the agenda for Alliance members in the lead-up to the forthcoming Vilnius Summit. The issue was just as acute 15 years ago when, at the Bucharest …
Read More »Standing By or Choosing Sides: Wagner Mutiny Deepens Divides in Russian Opposition
The Wagner mercenary group’s rebellion against Russia’s military leadership has further split Russia’s anti-Kremlin opposition, which is already largely divided over a litany of issues and geographically scattered in exile. Mikhail Khodorkovsky, an exiled former oil tycoon turned opposition figure, swiftly emerged as the most vocal of Prigozhin’s unlikely supporters, …
Read More »Russians Appeared to Welcome Wagner Rebels With Open Arms. The Truth Is More Complex.
Anna, a 67-year-old woman from the southern city of Rostov-on-Don, remembers being woken up by the sounds of military equipment early in the morning of June 24. From her window, she could see a tank, armored vehicles and machine gunners of the Wagner private military company sitting opposite her house, …
Read More »Has Wagner’s mutiny weakened Russia in the Middle East?
Yevgeny Prigozhin’s attempted insurrection against the Russian Ministry of Defence (MOD) last month created massive confusion. The rebellion raised many questions about what might come next for the war in Ukraine and the future of Russian President Vladimir Putin’s rule. Other important questions pertain to the Wagner Group’s ‘March of …
Read More »Is US–China Decoupling Heading In A Dangerous Direction? – Analysis
The US and Chinese economies are closely interconnected, but their ties are eroding. Despite record levels of US–China bilateral trade in 2022, the trading relationship is becoming less interdependent. Rising tensions between Washington and Beijing are driving US and Chinese investors away from each market. Perhaps the most consequential aspect …
Read More »CIA Has Boots In Ukraine, A Newsweek Disclosure
The U.S. spy agency Central Intelligence Agency (CIA) has boots on the ground in Ukraine and operates a clandestine supply network to help the government in Kiev to fight Russia, leading U.S. weekly Newsweek reported on Wednesday, citing anonymous sources within the US government. “The CIA was central to the …
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