January, 2026

• 5 January

  Can the Islamic State still become a spoiler in the new Syria?

  

  In the most fatal attack against US troops in Syria so far this decade, an Islamic State (IS) gunman shot dead two US soldiers and a civilian American interpreter on 13 December. The deadly attack transpired amidst expanding US-Syrian military cooperation and Syria joining the US-led anti-IS coalition. It raises …

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• 5 January

  How Syria could become a battleground for Turkey and Israel

  

  Since the collapse of Bashar Al-Assad’s government just over a year ago, Syria has become an arena for an increasingly stark contest between Turkey and Israel. Ankara and Tel Aviv’s strategic visions for Syria are fundamentally irreconcilable. Turkey seeks a unified state anchored by an Ankara-friendly central authority and preserved …

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• 5 January

  The key trends set to shape the Middle East in 2026

  

  With the new year less than two weeks away, a range of geopolitical and security trends demand close attention. From the potential resumption of war between Israel and Iran to evolving dynamics in multiple hotspots, a host of unresolved variables is poised to shape the Middle East’s trajectory in 2026. …

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• 5 January

  Post-deadline scenarios
  Damascus and the SDF: Rescheduling March 10 or Escalation?

  

  With the deadline for the March 10 agreement expiring at the end of 2025, its provisions remain on hold. Neither side has implemented any of them, and both have traded accusations over delays and obstruction in recent months, without reaching concrete steps to move the agreement forward Despite repeated meetings …

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• 5 January

  Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, January 2, 2026

  

  Toplines Russian officials accused Ukraine of conducting a strike against a hotel and cafe in occupied Khorly, Kherson Oblast, that reportedly killed at least 28 people and injured at least 50, and called for the intensification of Russia’s war efforts, including its campaign of strikes against Ukrainian civilian infrastructure.[1] Russian …

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• 5 January

  Échec du F-35: le Pentagone et Lockheed Martin refusent d’en assumer la responsabilité

  

  Le prétendu programme Joint Strike Fighter était censé fournir aux États-Unis et à leurs alliés un «avion miracle» pouvant remplacer toute une génération d’avions de chasse. Au lieu de cela, le Pentagone se retrouve avec une flotte de F-35 à peine disponible la moitié du temps, avec des coûts d’entretien …

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• 5 January

  Why the US Should Recognize South Yemen

  

  An independent South Yemen could be a force for stability and offer an end to the country’s decade-long civil war. On Tuesday, Saudi Arabia announced that its fighter jets bombed arms shipments unloaded by two United Arab Emirates (UAE) vessels in Yemen. The shipments had been destined for the South …

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• 5 January

  Iran Update, January 2, 2026

  

  Toplines The rate and geographic scope of protests in Iran increased on January 1 and 2. ISW-CTP recorded 56 protests on January 1 and 70 protests on January 2, compared to 31 protests on December 31.[1] Protests took place in 17 out of Iran’s 31 provinces between December 28 and …

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• 5 January

  Israeli army deploys ultra-Orthodox Haredi brigade in southern Syria

  

  The Israeli army announced today, Thursday 1 January, the deployment of forces from the “Hasmonean Brigade” in the security zone in southern Syria, marking the first time the brigade has been stationed in the area. The Israeli army said the brigade’s infantry forces carried out field activities after a series …

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• 5 January

  Spotlight on Iran and the

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