May, 2026

• 11 May

  Les Philippines, premier domino asiatique de l’inflation attisée par la guerre contre l’Iran

  

  La flambée de l’inflation à 7,2% constitue l’avertissement le plus clair à ce jour des ravages que le choc pétrolier lié à la guerre en Iran causera bientôt aux pays en développement d’Asie. Un signal d’alarme pour toute l’Asie en développementLa flambée de l’inflation aux Philippines en avril est un …

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• 11 May

  Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, May 8, 2026

  

  Toplines Ukrainian forces are reconnoitering and interdicting Russian ground lines of communication (GLOCs) in and near occupied Mariupol, Donetsk Oblast (about 105 kilometers from the frontline), demonstrating increased capabilities as part of Ukraine’s intensifying mid-range strike campaign. The Ukrainian 1st Azov National Guard Corps reported on May 8 that it …

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• 11 May

  Iran Update Special Report, May 8, 2026

  

  Key Takeaways Iranian officials continue to frame control over the Strait of Hormuz as a key strategic interest and a critical component of long-term Iranian deterrence. Iran likely views control over the strait as essential to restoring deterrence against the United States and Israel following the degradation of its other …

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• 11 May

  SHIFTING POWER DYNAMICS
  IN KYRGYZSTAN

  shifting-power-dynamics-in-kyrgyzstan-042126Download

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• 11 May

  Russia Threatened to Halt Syrian Oil Operations if Assad Regime Didn’t Pay Debt

  

  Leaked meeting minutes show Russia’s deputy defense minister leaning on Syria to pay a $37-million bill for keeping oil flowing. Months after that meeting, the regime of Bashar al-Assad fell to a rebel coalition. Syria’s new government has continued to negotiate with Russia over its total debt of at least …

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• 11 May

  How the US-Israel war has cemented the IRGC’s grip on Iran

  

  Far from weakening the IRGC, the war has entrenched its power, pushing Iran towards a military-run state with clerical cover In its war against Iran, the US and Israel have heavily targeted the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), striking its command structure, intelligence networks, air and naval assets, as well …

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• 11 May

  Dubai economic model under strain as Iran war shakes confidence as a ‘safe haven’

  

  Recent missile and air strikes on the UAE during a period of ceasefire, unlike other countries, have undermined confidence in the “safe haven” model. The United Arab Emirates, in general, and Dubai in particular, are facing a critical test of their international image as an economic oasis of stability in …

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• 11 May

  Spotlight on Iran and the Shiite Axis

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• 11 May

  Hamas is Humiliating Trump’s ‘Board of Peace’

  

  Expecting Hamas to disarm voluntarily is like expecting ISIS or Al-Qaeda to renounce jihad (holy war) and become peaceful political movements. [D]espite these repeated rejections, the “Board of Peace” continues its embarrassing efforts to negotiate with Hamas over the surrender of its weapons. The entire spectacle has become surreal. Instead …

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• 11 May

  The last banner of Zaynab

  

  My latest piece for the online magazine ‘Syria in Transition’ is reprinted below. Based on visits to the Sayyida Zaynab shrine in the Damascus area, the piece examines what the shrine’s status tells us about the general situation of Syria’s Twelver Shia minority. The last banner of ZaynabSyria’s Shia find …

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